Sunday’s NBA slate contains multiple intriguing matchups, but a regular-season rematch of last year’s Western Conference Semifinals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets might take the cake.
The nightcap for Sunday (9:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock) sees the top two seeds in the West duke it out. There’s plenty to play for and ample star power at hand, meaning this could shape up to be a classic.
Below, we’ll break down our Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction and picks for Sunday night’s game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
A season ago, the Thunder shocked the basketball world by ripping off 68 wins in the regular season. Although they got taken to the edge a few times in the postseason, they wound up winning the NBA Finals and now sit 38-11, good for first in the West this year.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, entered the postseason as the No. 4 seed after going 50-32. Even with a myriad of injuries in their way this year, some offseason improvements have Denver occupying a 33-16 record and the West’s second seed entering Sunday’s play.
Sunday is the 204th regular-season meeting between the Thunder and Nuggets. Oklahoma City owns a 107-96 series lead, but the two sides have alternated the last four matchups.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Over/Under, Spread
The Thunder enter Sunday’s game as 7.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.33x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Nuggets are home underdogs with a 3.03x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
- Over/Under: 222.5
- Game Winner Payout: Thunder 1.33x | Nuggets 3.03x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Thunder vs. Nuggets injury report for Sunday, via NBA.com.
Thunder Injury Report
- SG Alex Caruso (adductor): OUT
- PG Ajay Mitchell (abdominal): OUT
- G-F Jalen Williams (hamstring): OUT
Nuggets Injury Report
- SG Tamar Bates (foot): OUT
- SG Christian Braun (ankle): Doubtful
- PF Aaron Gordon (hamstring): OUT
- SF Cameron Johnson (knee): OUT
- C Nikola Jokic (knee): Probable
Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction on Sunday, February 1.
- Denver is solid at defending their own court, boasting a 4-3 against-the-spread record as home underdogs. Oklahoma City is 11-12 ATS as road favorites.
- The Thunder lead the NBA in per-game scoring at 120.3 points, but the Nuggets aren’t far behind at 120.1 (second).
- Offensively, OKC is just 22nd in fastbreak scoring and sits 15th in 3-point percentage. Denver is the 13th-best fastbreak defense (15.0 PPG) and the sixth-best at preventing treys from falling (34.8%).
- While Jokic was out due to his knee injury, the Nuggets went 10-6 despite being outscored 1,765-1,741 in that span.
- Both teams sit in the top 10 in average scoring margin, with Oklahoma City first (+12.3) and Denver eighth (+4.5).
Thunder vs. Nuggets Picks for PrizePicks Today: Sunday, February 1
Here are three top Thunder vs. Nuggets picks to target for Sunday, February 1 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG Jamal Murray, and C Nikola Jokic.
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nuggets Projection: 38.5 Pts + Asts
- On the year, Gilgeous-Alexander averages 38.2 points and assists per game. That number is a healthy 37.5 in the month of January.
- SGA owns an assist rate of at least 30% for the second consecutive season. This year’s 32.6% mark is a career-high.
- The former lottery pick is taking 1.1 fewer 3-point attempts per night, but it’s helped raise his efficiency from 37.5% in 2024-25 to 39.0% in 2025-26.
- Among players with at least 15 games logged, Gilgeous-Alexander is 20th in assist points created with 16.7.
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Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray vs. Thunder Projection: 22.5 Points
- Murray’s All-Star-caliber season continues, as he’s posting a personal best 25.8 points per game, including 27.1 in his last 10.
- The Kentucky product is canning a career-high 49.2% of his field goals and 44.7% of his 3-point tries.
- With Jokic in the lineup this season, Murray’s true shooting percentage rises 2.1% and his 3-point clip improves by 5.4%.
- According to NBARAPM, Murray’s 26.8 points per 75 possessions put him in the 98th percentile.
Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic vs. Thunder Projection: 45.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- The Joker averages a staggering 52.7 points, rebounds, and assists per game. In the five games leading up to his absence, that standard was 52.5.
- Worried about a potential minutes restriction? Don’t be. In just 24:32 of action on Friday against the Los Angeles Clippers, Jokic racked up 48 PRA.
- Jokic produces 24.1 potential assists per 100, ranking in the 100th percentile according to databallr.
- Via NBA Advanced Stats, Jokic ranks ninth among all players in average rebounding chances with 19.5.
Make Thunder vs. Nuggets Picks on PrizePicks
Thunder vs. Nuggets picks aren’t the only avenue hoops fans have to getting in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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