The Open Projected Cut Line: Will Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose Make the Cut?

The Open Championship got underway on Thursday at Royal Birkdale in England. In Round 1, Jackson Suber eagled the 17th hole after a birdie on 16 and to become the first-round leader at -5.

Two-time major champion Bryson DeChambeau, who has missed the cut in all three majors this season, is two shots back from the lead at -3, while defending champion Scottie Scheffler is one more shot back.

Masters champion Rory McIlroy birdied the 18th hole, but had a rough day otherwise, and sits at +2, while 2017 champion Jordan Spieth (+3) and Justin Rose (+5) are among those currently below the cut line and have work to do. 

Following the conclusion of Friday’s second round, the Open Championship cut line will be settled, with the top 70 golfers and ties making the cut and playing the weekend.

Below, we'll make three second-round British Open picks on golfers to make or miss the final cut line on PrizePicks Team Picks, including Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose.

Make The Open predictions to make or miss the cut line on PrizePicks now!

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The Open Championship Projected Cut Line

The Open was last held at Royal Birkdale in 2017, when Jordan Spieth topped Matt Kuchar for this third major title. The cut that year was 5-over par. 

According to datagolf.com’s live projection model, there is a 40.2% chance the Open Championship Cut Line will land at +2 at the end of the second round, with a 32.2% chance of it moving to +1. The model has the cut line at +3 at a 16.7% chance. ‍

Let's break down the Open Championship predictions to make or miss the projected cut line on PrizePicks.

The Open Championship Picks Today: Who Will Make or Miss Cut Line?

Here are three golfers to consider to make or miss The Open Championship cut line ahead of the second round on Friday, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

The Open Championship payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200 on PrizePicks Team Picks. Payouts are live as of writing but are subject to change.

Rory McIlroy To Make The Open Cut Line?

Round 1 Result: +2 (72)

Rory McIlroy To Make Open Championship Cut Line Payout:  Yes 1.28 | No 3.12x

• Rory McIlroy bogeyed two of his first seven holes and also the 10th and 11th holes to struggle to a +2, 72 in the first round.
• The six-time major champion has made the cut in 13 of 16 previous Open Championships and in 13 of the past 14 majors overall. 
• On Thursday, McIlroy struggled with his short game and putter, ranking 140th in shots gained around the green and 146th in putting. He lost a combined 3.78 shots to the field, 2.49 alone with the putter. On the bright side, his swing was fine, as he gained 1.92 shots off the tee and 1.27 shots on approach, which is a good sign for Friday. 
• In 2017, Rory finished tied for fourth when the Open was last held at Royal Birkdale. 

Pick Rory McIlroy to make the cut at the 2026 Open Championship on PrizePicks

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Tom Kim To Make The Open Cut Line?

Round 1 Result: Even (70)

‍Tom Kim To Make Open Championship Cut Line Payout: Yes 1.12x | No 2.94x

• Tom Kim finished Thursday’s first round even par 70, with two birdies, two bogeys and 14 pars. 
• Kim, who won the Scottish Open last week, has made 15 of 17 cuts this season, including playing the weekend in each of his last seven events. 
• While he did miss the Cut at the last two British Opens, he also finished second in 2023 and 47th in 2022. 
• On Thursday, Kim was one of the best in the field in shots gained approach, gaining 1.79 shots on the field, 14th best.

Pick Tom Kim to make the cut at the 2026 Open Championship on PrizePicks

Justin Rose To Make/Miss The Open Cut Line?

Round 1 Result: +5 (75)

‍Justin Rose To Make Open Championship Cut Line Payout:   Yes 2.38x | No 1.13x

• Justin Rose shot a 5-over par 75 on Thursday, his worst Open Championship round since his final round in 2019 at Royal Portrush. 
• He is currently three shots off the projected cut line. Rose last missed the cut at The Open in 2023 after starting 74-74. He shot one stroke worse on Thursday. 
• The 2012 U.S. Open champion really struggled around the greens today, losing 3.31 shots to the field, ranking 154th out of 156 golfers in the field. 
• Rose, who switched to McLaren clubs earlier this season, has four missed cuts on the season after missing six all of last season. 
• Rose has struggled in the second round this year, averaging a 70.57, which is 97th on Tour. 
• As noted above, Rose is reportedly dealing with a neck injury for the "last couple of weeks" and hasn't practiced as much as normal.

Pick Justin Rose to make the cut at the 2026 Open Championship on PrizePicks

Make British Open Picks on PrizePicks

Will Rory McIlroy rebound from a rough first round to make the Open Championship cut on Friday? Will red-hot Tom Kim stay above the line and play another weekend?

You can make your 2026 Open Championship picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick golfers, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. 

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