As the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament continues, trips to the Round of 16 are on the line on Sunday. A 9:45 p.m. ET bout between No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 4 Alabama on TBS sees two feisty programs go head-to-head.
This one could be a closely contested battle, and PrizePicks Team Picks agrees, as the Crimson Tide are favored by just 1.5 points over the Red Raiders.
Below, we’ll break down our Texas Tech vs. Alabama prediction on spread for Sunday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Texas Tech vs. Alabama Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Just one season ago, Texas Tech rattled off 28 wins and advanced to the Regional Finals of the NCAA Tournament. This year’s seen them decline to 23 victories, but head coach Grant McCasland’s crew remains quite competitive.
The Red Raiders snapped a three-game skid by blowing out Akron in the opening round of the tourney. In a 91-71 victory, guard Jaylen Petty went off for 24 points on just 14 shots.
Staying true to their roots, the Crimson Tide continue to play an uber-fast brand of basketball under head coach Nate Oats. Alabama has just nine losses for the second consecutive year, also having reached the same end destination as TTU in 2025.
This season’s Alabama group has gone 10-2 since suffering a 23-point loss to Florida on February 1. They played Hofstra in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, winning 90-70.
These teams have squared off eight times dating back to 1949. Alabama owns a commanding 7-1 series lead over Texas Tech, as well as a +6.0 average scoring margin in those games.
Texas Tech vs. Alabama Spread, Over/Under
Texas Tech enters Sunday’s game as 1.5-point underdogs, returning a 1.85x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Alabama is favored with a 1.92x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5 (2.04x payout)
- Over/Under: 162.5 (1.75x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Red Raiders 1.85x | Crimson Tide 1.92x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Texas Tech vs. Alabama Prediction on Spread – 3/22/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Texas Tech vs. Alabama prediction on spread for Sunday, March 22 on PrizePicks.
- Alabama is 11-14 against the spread as a favorite. In the underdog role, Texas Tech sits 5-4 ATS.
- According to KenPom, the Crimson Tide rank 17th nationally with a +26.17 net rating, two spots ahead of the Red Raiders (+25.92). Both teams are also top-six in strength of schedule net rating.
- In a battle of top-10 offenses, the outcome of this one may come down to defense. Per Bart Torvik, TTU owns a 99.1 adjusted defensive efficiency (27th), while Alabama is 40 slots behind at 103.0.
- Two of the Crimson Tide’s offensive hot spots come from the nail (56%) and the right dunker spot (64%), via CBB Shot Charts. The Red Raiders allow conversion rates of just 39% and 32% in those areas, however.
- The 3-point battle is another to watch. Texas Tech’s 39.7% mark from deep is third-best in the nation, and the team draws a good matchup against an Alabama squad that’s 173rd at defending the trey-ball (33.9%).
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Make Texas Tech vs. Alabama Picks on PrizePicks
Texas Tech vs. Alabama picks for the second round on Sunday are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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