The second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament moves along on Sunday, and the slate should provide plenty of exciting action. No. 3 seed Virginia is scheduled to face off against No. 6 seed Tennessee in the Midwest Region. The Volunteers are 1.5-point favorites ahead of the 6:10 p.m. ET tip-off.
Below, we’ll break down our Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction on the spread for Sunday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Tennessee vs. Virginia Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
It's been an up-and-down campaign for Tennessee, which jumped out to a 10-4 record in SEC play. However, the Volunteers lost four of their final six games, finishing with a 22-11 (11-7) record on the season.
Tennessee certainly didn’t show many signs of a team that struggled offensively at times in its first-round win against No. 12 seed Miami (OH). The Volunteers came away with a dominant 78-56 victory and were led by G Ja’Kobi Gillespie’s 29-point performance.
Virginia has had a spectacular season and is one of the more impressive teams that the ACC has to offer. In fact, the Cavaliers finished just two games behind Duke for the top spot in the regular-season standings and even gave the Blue Devils all they could handle in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia was in a battle against No. 14 seed Wright State in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. The Cavaliers were able to outlast the Raiders, 82-73, behind a 26-point performance from reserve G Jacari White.
Tennessee and Virginia have played each other just 14 times throughout history, with the Cavaliers owning an 8-6 advantage. The Vols registered a 64-42 win in the most recent meeting during the 2024-25 season and covered the spread as 12.5-point favorites.
Tennessee vs. Virginia Spread, Over/Under
Virginia enters Sunday’s game as 1.5-point underdogs, returning a 1.96x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is favored with a 1.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Tennessee Volunteers -1.5 (1.96x payout)
- Over/Under: 137.5 (1.92x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Volunteers 1.85x | Cavaliers 1.96x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Tennessee vs. Virginia Prediction on Spread – 3/22/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction on the spread for Sunday, March 22, on PrizePicks.
- Virginia has a 4-1 against-the-spread record as an underdog. Meanwhile, Tennessee is 12-16-1 ATS as a favorite.
- The Cavaliers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games.
- Virginia holds its opponents to a 31.3% shooting percentage from deep this season, ranking fourth in the ACC. Tennessee shoots just 33.8% from beyond the arc, 10th in the SEC.
- According to Bart Torvik, the Cavaliers are 30th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (122.3).
- Virginia leads the nation in blocks per game (6.4). C Ugonna Onyenso averaged 2.9 per contest, while C Johann Grunloh has registered 2.2 rejections each night.
- Tennessee shot 45.0% from beyond the arc vs. Miami (OH) but connected on just 27.3% of its long-range attempts in its last three contests.
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