No. 3 seed Illinois and No. 1 seed Arizona secured the first two spots in the national semifinals on Saturday. The final two regional final battles take place on Sunday, March 29, beginning with the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (25-11) vs. the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (34-3) at 2:15 p.m. ET on CBS.
Tennessee is on the hunt for its first national semifinal in program history, while Michigan is chasing its first regional title since 2018. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Wolverines are a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
Let’s dive into the matchup, make a Tennessee vs. Michigan prediction for college basketball projections, and highlight player picks on PrizePicks.
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Tennessee vs. Michigan Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Each team comes off impressive Round of 16 wins, as the Volunteers defeated No. 2 seed Iowa State 76-62 as 3.5-point underdogs. Michigan, meanwhile, pulled away from No. 4 seed Alabama in a 90-77 win as 9.5-point favorites.
Despite a 3-4 end to the regular season and SEC Tournament, Tennessee has rounded into form with 3-0 outright and against the spread (ATS) records in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have held opponents to 37.9% shooting and controlled the rebound battle by +14.0 boards per game in the NCAA Tournament.
The Wolverines are 9-1 and 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games, but they are 2-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. The offense has rolled by posting 95.3 points per game (PPG) while knocking down 47.3% of 3-point attempts over the last three games.
Michigan is accustomed to high-scoring matchups, with the over 3-1 in the past four contests. Tennessee’s strong defense leads to low-scoring battles, as the under is 8-2 for its previous 10 games.
Tennessee vs. Michigan Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite and carries a 1.28x payout if it wins. Tennessee is in the underdog role for the second consecutive game, sporting a 3.7x payout with an outright win.
Tennessee’s defense and Michigan’s offense seem baked into Sunday’s 146.5 total on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -7.5
- Over/Under: 146.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Tennessee 3.7x | Michigan 1.28x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Tennessee vs. Michigan Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/29/26
Tennessee is in the 79th percentile for Bart Torvik’s slowest adjusted tempos, and it usually finds ways to slow the pace by controlling the possession battle.
As mentioned, the Volunteers are averaging a +14.0 rebound advantage per game in the NCAA Tournament. Plus, they’ve averaged 13.3 offensive rebounds per game in the last three games, backed by the highest offensive rebounding rate in college basketball.
However, Michigan is excellent on the glass, ranking in the 92nd and 94th percentiles of offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. Plus, the Wolverines total 27.4 defensive boards per game (99th percentile); that could help limit the Vols’ season average of 14.1 offensive rebounds per game (100th percentile).
Furthermore, UT has a stout defense that sits 12th in adjusted efficiency. The unit is prone to allowing 3-point attempts, though, to the tune of 25.8 shots per game (16th percentile). The Wolverines have cashed in 11.7 triples per game in the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan carries impressive season-long stats, including 9.3 treys per game (84th percentile) and a 36.9% mark from deep (92nd percentile). In the second round, No. 3 seed Virginia totaled 12 triples vs. the Vols, and Tennessee has surrendered 29.0 3-point shots per game in the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee vs. Michigan Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/29/26
Here are the top Tennessee vs. Michigan picks to target for Sunday, March 29, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks are headlined by Tennessee G Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg.
Tennessee G Ja’Kobi Gillespie vs. Michigan Projection: 18.5 Points
- Ja’Kobi Gillespie leads Tennessee with 18.3 PPG and has elevated that to 22.0 PPG in the NCAA Tournament.
- He leads the Vols by attempting 8.1 3-point attempts per game, and Michigan allows 27.3 attempted triples per contest (sixth percentile).
- The Wolverines feature an elite defense that ranks fourth in adjusted efficiency, but Michigan G Elliot Cadeau (2.90) and G Nimari Burnett (1.61) have the lowest Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR) in the Wolverines’ starting lineup, per EvanMiya.
- Led by 17.3 field goal attempts and 9.0 3-point shots per game in the NCAA Tournament, Gillespie’s volume is as high as ever compared to 15.1 and 8.1 on the season.
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Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg vs. Tennessee Projection: 16 Points
- Michigan’s leading scorer, Yaxel Lendeborg (14.9 PPG), has also risen to the occasion with 19.0 PPG in the NCAA Tournament.
- The potential NBA first-round pick boasts mind-boggling efficiency over his last three games, shooting 63.3% from the field and 61.5% on 3-pointers.
- After making at least 3 triples in three of his last four games, Lendeborg could take advantage of Tennessee’s suspect perimeter defense.
- Furthermore, Yaxel will likely be defended by Tennessee F Nate Ament, and he weighs only 207 pounds compared to Lendeborg’s 240-pound frame.
Make Tennessee vs. Michigan Picks on PrizePicks
As one of college basketball’s most well-rounded teams, Michigan is suited to match some of Tennessee’s strengths. Will the Volunteers’ defense and rebounding translate to Sunday’s matchup, or will the Wolverines roll to their ninth national semifinal appearance?
You can make your Tennessee vs. Michigan picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
