The No. 25 Tennessee Volunteers (16-6) and the Kentucky Wildcats (16-7) face off in their final head-to-head matchup of the season at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
One of the SEC’s best college basketball rivalries should be as intense as ever, and Kentucky is pulling out all the stops with new alternate uniforms. Will the Wildcats add to their 12-2 home record, or will the Volunteers improve their 2-3 road mark?
Let's dive into a Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction, spread, and college basketball picks today, weaving in player projections from PrizePicks.
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Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
UK is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head matchups, including January 17’s improbable 17-point comeback win in Tennessee’s backyard. The Volunteers are 2-1 over their past three trips to Rupp Arena.
During Tennessee’s four-game winning streak, it is 3-1 against the spread (ATS). Plus, the over is 8-2 in the Vols’ last 10 appearances. Kentucky is 4-6 ATS, while the over/under is 5-5 in the same split.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Over/Under, Spread
Despite Tennessee’s recent over trend, tonight’s over/under total is only 147.5. The Volunteers won their last game as an underdog, adding intrigue to their 1.96x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Will Kentucky cover its third consecutive game as 1.5-point favorites?
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats -1.5
- Over/Under: 147.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Tennessee 1.96x | Kentucky 1.78x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction on Spread
Tennessee C Felix Okpara (calf) is questionable, while Kentucky PF/C Jayden Quaintance (knee) and F Kam Williams (foot) continue to miss time. Okpara’s 5.9 rebounds per game being being absent could see the Vols take a hit.
UT’s starting C was out the last two games, but it still won rebounding battles by an average margin of +14.5. This is one of the nation’s top teams on the glass, ranked in the 100th percentile of offensive rebounding and the 90th percentile for defensive rebounding.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, are in the 85th and 83rd percentiles of the same categories. In fact, Kentucky’s averaged 12.4 offensive boards per game during its 7-1 stretch, surpassing its season average of 10.5.
Okpara also brings excellent rim protection with the team’s second-highest Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), per EvanMiya. UK looks to attack the rim, ranked in the 98th percentile of dunk shot distribution and 53rd percentile for close twos. The Volunteers are in the 47th percentile of dunk distribution allowed; no Okpara would add to the flaw.
Tennessee also lives around the paint by ranking in the 87th percentile of close twos distribution. However, the Cats are in the 85th percentile for allowance of such tries, and Kentucky C Malachi Moreno anchors the defense with an impressive 3.29 DBPR (first on the team).
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Picks for PrizePicks Today: Saturday, February 7
Despite our focus on the paint attacks, Tennessee G Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Kentucky G Collin Chandler could provide value as 3-point specialists on PrizePicks.
Tennessee G Ja’Kobi Gillespie vs. Kentucky Projection: 17.5 Points
- Kentucky’s perimeter defense allows 23.6 3-point shots per game (42nd percentile).
- Gillespie leads the Vols with an average of 8.0 shots from beyond the arc, and he cashed in 4 triples in the last head-to-head contest.
- The Maryland transfer has totaled 20.0 PPG over the last five games, slightly above his 18.6 PPG mark for the year.
- Outside of Kentucky G Otega Oweh (3.11 DBPR), the Cats have vulnerable backcourt defenders in G Denzel Aberdeen (1.05 DBPR) and G Collin Chandler (1.42 DBPR).
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Kentucky G Collin Chandler vs. Tennessee Projection: 11.5 Points
- In the January 17 head-to-head clash, Kentucky cashed in 11 of 24 3-point shots (45.8%). Tennessee gives up 27.2 attempted triples per game (8th percentile).
- Chandler converted 4 shots from deep in the last Tennessee matchup, reaching 12 points.
- He’s totaled 12.8 PPG while sporting a scorching 43.8% from 3-point land in the last six games.
Make #25 Tennessee vs. Kentucky Picks on PrizePicks
Will Tennessee enact revenge on Saturday night? Keep close tabs on Okpara’s status, as it could shift the rebounding battle and impact Kentucky’s ability to score around the rim.
Make your Tennessee vs. Kentucky picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can also make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
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