Each NFL week, one of us pundits nails it.
And every NFL week, one of us pundits gets nailed.
In Week 11, this guy got nailed. I had you sit Panthers WR Tet McMillan (25 fantasy points, WR1) and start Raiders WR Tre Tucker (10.7 fantasy points, WR15), and what did that get you? Annoyed, that’s what.
But the NFL Week 12 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em will be a different animal altogether, loaded with brilliant yesses and even more brilliant no’s.
How do I know this? Welp, it can’t get much worse.
NFL Week 12 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
Here’s who to consider throwing into your lineup or parking on your bench.
Panthers QB Bryce Young: Start ‘Em
Panthers @ 49ers - 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
Even though I have no right to, I’m feeling pretty good about this one. We’ve got a guy coming off the best performance of his career — 31.8 fantasy points, and would’ve been QB1 had Bills QB Josh Allen (44.7 fantasy points) not done Josh Allen things — taking on a team that just allowed journeyman Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett to complete a league record 47 passes for 452 yards.
Super-hot hand vs. super-old D? Bring it.
Bryce Young PrizePicks Projection: 182.5 Pass Yards, 7.5 Rush Yards
Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett: Start ‘Em
Cardinals vs. Jaguars - 4:05 p.m. ET
And speaking of hot hands, let’s discuss Mr. Brissett, who tore up State Farm Stadium with his ostensible WR1, Marvin Harrison Jr., recovering from appendix surgery.
From an aesthetic perspective, it would just feel wrong if the 32-year-old followed a historical outing with an 8.3 fantasy point disaster, so even though the Cards have to fly halfway across the country to face a Jags defense that just made Chargers QB Justin Herbert look silly (4.3 fantasy points, QB31), I’ll roll with the NC State product as a streamer.
Jacoby Brissett PrizePicks Projection: 241.5 Pass Yards, 12.5 Rush Yards
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy: Sit ‘Em
Vikings @ Packers - 1:00 p.m. ET
After a truly garbage first 55 game minutes in which the Chicago Bears made J.J. McCarthy look like a Pop Warner third-stringer, the former Michigan star woke up and led his Vikes on an 85-yard drive that would’ve won the game had Minnesota not gone full Pop Warner and allowed the Bears’ WR Devin Duvernay a 50-plus-yard kickoff return that led to a walk-off game-winning FG by K Cairo Santos. Oops.
Without that last drive, there’s a possibility that Minny’s eternally cool head coach Kevin O’Connell lost his eternal cool and sent McCarthy back to Ann Arbor. Kind of the way you should send him to your fantasy bench.
J.J. McCarthy PrizePicks Projection: 202.5 Pass Yards
Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers: Sit ‘Em
Steelers @ Bears - 1:00 p.m. ET
That above-mentioned final drive notwithstanding, the Bears defense held McCarthy to 8.0 fantasy points, the worst performance of his career in which he played a full 60 minutes.
So the Bears D is eating, and would love nothing more than to embarrass their tormentor, Rodgers. Thing is, as of this writing, Rodgers — who suffered a ding in his left hand — is about fifty-fifty to take the field, so if he does indeed play, his health will be at least somewhat compromised. And you can bet that the Monsters of the Midway will target the bad hand, so compromised health might lead to a truncated afternoon. So leave him on the bench where he can have a hit of Ayahuasca.
Rams RB Kyren Williams: Start ‘Em
Rams vs. Buccaneers - 8:20 p.m. ET (Sunday Night Football)
Williams is legit elite, and I take that for granted, and I never will again.
Quietly, he’s become fantasy’s RB8, topping the likes of Baltimore’s Derrick Henry (RB11) and Saquon Barkley (RB12). Makes sense, as he’s on a crazy heater: In five of his last six outings, he’s topped 15 fantasy points, and on Sunday, he’ll be staring down a Tampa Bay defense that ranks sixth-worst in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. The fact that the Rams are arguably the hottest team in the NFC looking to show out for a national audience won’t hurt Kyren’s cause.
Kyren Williams PrizePicks Projection: 66.5 Rush Yards
Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet: Start ‘Em
Seahawks @ Titans - 1:00 p.m. ET
The Titans are almost as bad at defending RBs as the Bucs, allowing 24.3 fantasy points per game, leaving them two spots below Tampa. And here’s a dirty little secret: Charbonnet has just 6 less carries than Seattle’s theoretical lead back, Kenneth Walker III.
In two of his previous four games, the UCLA product has topped 15 fantasy points, and against a blech run D, that number is distinctly reachable.
Bengals RB Chase Brown: Sit ‘Em
Bengals vs. Patriots - 1:00 p.m. ET
Before the season, I was very much on the Chase Brown train, which made sense at the time — after all, he finished the 2024 season as fantasy’s RB12, ahead of Tampa Bay’s Bucky Irving and the Jets’ Breece Hall.
I left the train after Week 5, after his previous three games in which he averaged 5.2 fantasy points. The fact that he didn’t hit double figures in fantasy points for three more weeks made me feel better about the whole thing.
Over the last three weeks, however, Brown seems to have found his mojo, averaging a solid 15.4 fantasy points. That’s all fine and good, but taking on a Pats D that gives up the second-fewest fantasy points against RBs, none of us should get on the choo-choo.
Chase Brown PrizePicks Projection: 0.5 Rush+Receiving TDs
Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty: Sit ‘Em
Raiders vs. Browns - 4:05 p.m. ET
And while we’re on the subject of train departures.
After watching him go all Madden on all of CFB in 2024, I drafted Jeanty in two of my fantasy leagues, both in the second round. Dude’s currently RB19 (11.2 fantasy points), firmly behind New York’s Breece Hall and Chicago’s D’Andre Swift, neither of whom were drafted in the second round by anybody anywhere.
On a short week, Jeanty has to travel to Ohio, where he’ll be forced to deal with a Browns D that holds opposing RBs to 18.1 fantasy points per game (sixth-best). And after his 3.2 fantasy point performance on Monday night against a horrific Dallas D, I don’t have high hopes that he’ll help me earn a playoff spot in any of my leagues.
The takeaway: Don’t draft rook RBs until the third round. At least.
Panthers WR Tet McMillan: Start ‘Em
Panthers @ 49ers - 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
I have to give myself some props, here: About five minutes before Week 11’s first slate of games, I sent Chicago WR D.J. Moore to the bench and replaced him with the Tet-ster.
Moore staggered his way to 2.1 fantasy points (WR64…yikes), while McMillan delivered by far the best performance of his young career, racking up 25 fantasy points, 5 ahead of WR2, Dallas’ George Pickens.
If Bryce Young is our Start ‘Em QB, then McMillan has to be our Start ‘Em WR.
Tet McMillan PrizePicks Projection: 58.5 Receiving Yards
Bears WR Luther Burden III: Start ‘Em
Bears vs. Steelers - 1:00 p.m. ET
As noted, D.J. Moore was hot garbage on Sunday, while the rookie Burden…was also hot garbage, managing just 0.6 fantasy points more than Moore.
But Burden saw 2 more targets than Moore’s 3, and after Rome Odunze, he’s Chicago’s No. 2 downfield threat. Against a wobbly Steelers D that gives up more fantasy points against receivers than anybody in the league, don’t be surprised if Bears head coach Ben Johnson deploys Burden early and often.
Vikings WR Jordan Addison: Sit ‘Em
Vikings @ Packers - 1:00 p.m. ET
Partnering a hot QB with a hot WR — i.e., Bryce Young and Tet McMillan — makes sense…as does partnering a questionable receiver with a questionable quarterback.
So if McCarthy only managed 8.0 fantasy points in Week 11, it would only be natural that Addison, his WR2, would suffer, and suffer Addison did, managing 8.0 fantasy points of his own, landing him at fantasy’s WR22.
Until further notice, I’m avoiding each and every Viking pass-thrower and -catcher. And yes, that means Justin Jefferson.
Jordan Addison PrizePicks Projection: 45.5 Receiving Yards
Bengals WR Tee Higgins: Sit ‘Em
Bengals vs. Patriots - 1:00 p.m. ET
Right now, you’re probably like, “But Alan, Ja’Marr Chase is suspended for Sunday’s game because he’s a spitting machine, so Tee will get all the targets.”
Exactly.
After Chase and Higgins, Cincy’s wide receivers room is thin, thin, thin, populated by Andrei Iosivas and a bunch of guys you haven’t heard of.
The Patriots braintrust is, y’know, brainy, so they’ll likely throw the kitchen sink at Higgins and let Bengals QB Joe Flacco try to make hay with the likes of Mitchell Tinsley and Charlie Jones…neither of whom are, as far as we know, haymakers.
Patriots TE Hunter Henry: Start ‘Em
Patriots @ Bengals - 1:00 p.m. ET
Which team is among the current favorites to win the AFC? The New England Patriots.
Which player on the New England Patriots is among the current favorites to win the NFL MVP? New England Patriots QB Drake Maye.
And which player on the New England Patriots is Maye’s second-favorite target? Considering the headline of this capsule, it would stand to reason that the gentleman in question is one Hunter Henry.
Henry is on pace to put up some of the best numbers of his career — I’m too lazy to do the predictive math, so just dig this — and over the last three weeks, he’s seen, respectively, 6, 4, and 6 targets.
And newsflash: The Bengals defense is what we in the industry like to call “stinky,” allowing 418.2 yards per game, by far the most in the NFL.
Opportunity + Situation = Start ‘Em
Hunter Henry PrizePicks Projection: 37.5 Receiving Yards
Seahawks TE A.J. Barner: Start ‘Em
Seahawks vs. Titans - 1:00 p.m. ET
Last Sunday, ‘Hawks QB Sam Darnold regressed to being, well, Sam Darnold — or at least the New York Jets version of Sam Darnold — throwing 4 picks and completing just 29 of his 44 pass attempts.
A mind-blowing 11 of those attempts went to Barner, who hauled in 10 of them, by far a career high.
On one hand, that’s awesome, he’s the league’s new TE1. On the other hand, in his four previous games, he saw 10 combined targets, so this isn’t a slam dunk, especially since the Titans D is as middling as middling gets, allowing the 17th most passing yards per game (217.8).
Not sure if Barner is a true TE1, but at the very least, get him the hell off of your waiver wire.
Buccaneers TE Cade Otten: Sit ‘Em
Buccaneers @ Rams - 8:20 p.m. ET (Sunday Night Football)
Tampa Bay’s pass catchers are getting healthy, and that’s a fantasy concern for any of us who have a piece. (Save for Bucky Irving, my rosters are all Buc-free, so that’s everybody else’s problem.)
Last week’s 5 targets were tied for the fewest he’s seen since Week 6, and his Week 9 target barrage (12, his career single-game high) might just be an outlier.
And against the Rams’ eighth-ranked pass defense? No thanks.
Cade Otten PrizePicks Projection: 40.5 Receiving Yards
Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson: Sit ‘Em
Vikings @ Packers - 1:00 p.m. ET
Remember what I wrote about Jordan Addison?
Yeah, that.
T.J. Hockenson PrizePicks Projection: 28.5 Receiving Yards
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