Numbers are all fine and good.
But eyes and guts aren’t bad either.
When we brilliant, handsome pundits consider our Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em for NFL Week 11, we open up a zillion tabs on our interwebs browser, each of which has some version of NFL stats, and we run the numbers until we figure out who goes into the lineup and who should be on the bench.
But at this point in the season, we’ve seen enough football that we can make some decisions based somewhat on what we see and feel.
Let’s use my Chicago Bears as an example. Over the last two weeks, they’ve been gashed by the Bengals and the Giants, and I don’t have to look up anything. The Bears D isn’t good, and they host Minnesota on Sunday, so the Eye and Gut Test tells me that it would be eminently logical to give all the Vikings on your roster huge consideration for a spot in your fantasy lineup.
To that end, this week, as a thought experiment, we’re going to incorporate what I’ve seen into our Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em. I can’t guarantee it’ll work, but if you’re like me, at this point in your fantasy season, you’re ready to try anything.
NFL Week 11 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
Here’s who to consider throwing into your lineup or parking on the bench.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: Start ‘Em
Dolphins @ Commanders - 9:30 a.m. ET (International Game)
Some Numbers: Tua wrapped up Miami’s upset dub over Buffalo having connected on 15-of-21 passes with two touchdowns in the mix, good for a modest 12.7 fantasy points (QB18) But Washington allows the third-most points to opposing QBs (21.23), so heading over to Spain, modesty is a thing of the past.
The Eye and Gut Test: A surprising taste of victory did wonders for Tua’s body language. He looks ready to be an NFL quarterback. At least for this week.
Tua Tagovailoa PrizePicks Projection: 239.5 Pass Yards, 1.5 Rush Yards
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy: Start ‘Em
Vikings vs. Bears - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: For the second consecutive week, the Bears defense posted 7- fantasy points against a pair of underachieving teams in the Bengals and the Giants. And last Sunday, McCarthy had a decent performance against an improving, healthy Ravens D, posting 16.7 fantasy points (QB14)
The Eye and Gut Test: TBH, I didn’t see much of McCarthy’s, but what I did see was nice, especially his escapability when forced out of the pocket. And the Bears aren’t great at forcing QBs out of the pocket.
J.J. McCarthy PrizePicks Projection: 212.5 Pass Yards, 22.5 Rush Yards
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: Sit ‘Em
Jaguars vs. Chargers - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: If your team scores 29 reality points, yet your QB manages 10.8 fantasy points (QB21), something ain’t right.
The Eye and Gut Test: Early in the season, I thought this would be Trevor’s breakout year. But he looks uncomfortable in the pocket, and that’s the kind of problem that doesn’t go away quickly. If ever.
Trevor Lawrence PrizePicks Projection: 211.5 Pass Yards, 18.5 Rush Yards
Titans QB Cam Ward: Sit ‘Em
Titans vs. Chargers - 1:00 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
Some Numbers: The No. 1 pick is fantasy’s QB40 behind fill-ins Baltimore’s Tyler Huntley (QB 35), New Orleans’ Spencer Rattler (QB33), and Jake Browning (QB30). If your day-one starter can’t leapfrog a bunch of back-ups, something ain’t right.
The Eye and Gut Test: Ward doesn’t have the It Factor, hard stop. Granted, the rest of the Titans offense isn’t, y’know, good, but the Miami product sure isn’t making them better.
Cam Ward PrizePicks Projection: 199.5 Pass Yards, 30.5 Rush Yards
Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty: Start ‘Em
Vegas vs. Cowboys - 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
Some Numbers: This isn’t about Jeanty being awesome as it is about the ‘Boys’ D being not awesome. While they’re improving, Dallas ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs with 26.93. In each of his last two games, the Boise State product topped 12 fantasy points, not mind-blowing, but he’s trending up, and could continue to do so against the Dallas sieve.
The Eye and Gut Test: Remember, Jeanty didn’t play the preseason, so this could be considered his eighth game. He looks like he’s coming into his own, and should take advantage of Dallas’ Swiss cheesy D.
Ashton Jeanty PrizePicks Projection: 61.5 Rush Yards
Vikings RB Aaron Jones Sr.: Start ‘Em
Vikings vs. Bears - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: The former Packer has been in and out of the lineup with a variety of ailments, but last week he outsnapped his fill-in Jordan Mason 46-16. The backfield is clearly his, and near-bell-cows facing a porous defense is never a bad thing.
The Eye and Gut Test: Dude looks bouncy, well-rested, and motivated. The NFC North should recognize.
Aaron Jones Sr. PrizePicks Projection: 48.5 Rush Yards
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.: Sit ‘Em
Giants vs. Packers - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: It’s not Tracy’s fault that former Giants coach Brian Daboll got whacked this week, but the Jints’ RB1 sure didn’t help. Taking 66% of the Giants’ snaps, Tracy could only manage 7.1 fantasy points, and this comes one week after a 3.7 fantasy point stinker. Facing Packers EDGE MIcah Parsons won’t make his life any easier.
The Eye and Gut Test: I watched 60 minutes of Giants football on Sunday. They were really, really bad. I’d have also fired Daboll.
Commanders RBs - Anybody Wearing a Washington Helmet: Sit ‘Em
Commanders @ Dolphins - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: While we’re on the subject of snap counts, dig this: Jacory Croskey-Merrit, 44%; Chris Rodriguez Jr., 33%; Jeremy McNichols, 31%. Why bother?
The Eye and Gut Test: To reiterate, why bother?
49ers WR Juwan Jennings: Start ‘Em
49ers @ Cardinals - 4:05 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: On Sunday, due to injuries, the Niners relied on RB Christian McCaffrey (9.8 fantasy points), George Kittle (14.4), and — as you might guess due to his inclusion on this list — Juwan Jennings. Jennings wasn’t Jerry Rice good, of course — but he was the de facto WR1, and 11.9 fantasy points (WR21) doesn’t suck — and if Ricky Pearsall remains out, Jennings could be in for a busy week.
The Eye and Gut Test: He carries himself like a WR1, and that swag might keep on atop the WR depth chart. Sorry, Ricky.
Juwan Jennings PrizePicks Projection: 47.5 Receiving Yards
Vikings WR Jordan Addison: Start ‘Em
Vikings vs. Bears - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: Addison is currently this season’s WR23 (8.8 fantasy points), not bad for a dude who you probably selected in the sixth or seventh round of your draft. His fellow Vikes WR, Justin Jefferson, sits at WR20 (9), and that’s terrible for a dude you probably selected in the top-five of your draft. Has Addison become Minnesota’s WR1? Maybe.
The Eye and Gut Test: Remember what I said during the Aaron Jones Jr. and J.J. McCarthy portions of our program? Yeah, that.
Jordan Addison PrizePicks Projection: 46.5 Receiving Yards
Raiders WR Tre Tucker: Sit ‘Em
Raiders vs. Cowboys - 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
Some Numbers: Tucker is listed by multiple outlets as Vegas’ WR1, and against Dallas’ messy defense, you start WR1s. Unless said WR1 is catching balls from QB Geno “12 Interceptions” Smith. Oh, it’s worth noting that Tucker has totaled — totaled — 10.1 fantasy points in his last three games. No thanks.
The Eye and Gut Test: a
Tre Tucker PrizePicks Projection: 50.0 Pass Yards
Panthers WR Tet McMillan: Sit ‘Em
Panthers vs. Falcons - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: Speaking of terrible combined fantasy point totals, the Arizona product totaled — totaled — 23.7 fantasy points in his last four games. Last Sunday, the Falcons D held toasty-hot Colts QB to 16.5 fantasy points (QB18), which doesn’t bode well for the disappointing first-round pick.
The Eye and Gut Test: Like fellow first-round draftee Cam Ward, Tet lacks the It Factor — for now. Let’s revisit in 2026.
Tet McMillan PrizePicks Projection: 54.5 Receiving Yards
Broncos TE Evan Engram: Start ‘Em
Broncos vs. Chiefs - 4:25 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: Lost in the Broncos’ general awesomeness is the fact that the ninth-year man is quietly a busy man, getting the third-most targets on the team (45), behind just Troy Franklin (73) and Courtland Sutton (66). Against a Chiefs D that, over the last two weeks, has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs (28.9), this could be a week to ride Double-E.
The Eye and Gut Test: It seems like every time I flip over to NFL RedZone, Broncos QB Bo Nix is throwing to Engram. And that, my friends, is the Eye Test in a nutshell.
Evan Engram PrizePicks Projection: 22.5 Pass Yards
Giants TE Theo Johnson: Start ‘Em
Giants vs. Packers - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: How or when did Johnson become 2025’s TE15, ahead of Washington’s Zach Ertz, Baltimore’s Mark Andrews, and Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts Sr.? Who knows, but here we are.
The Eye and Gut Test: Oftentimes when a head coach gets the axe, some players respond to the new vibe. That could happen here with a guy who’s landed as TE10 in the last two weeks.
Ravens TE Mark Andrews: Sit ‘Em
Ravens @ Browns - 3:25 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: In Balto’s last two games, Andrews has seen, respectively, 50% and 63% of the snaps at the tight end position. And in Week 9, he was out-snapped by Isaiah Likely. How far the mighty have fallen.
The Eye and Gut Test: Is Andrews washed? Not yet, but he isn’t the Andrews that was once upon a time in the TE1 conversation.
Mark Andrews PrizePicks Projection: 2.5 Receiving Yards
Bears TEs Cole Kmet and/or Colston Loveland: Sit ‘Em
Bears @ Vikings - 1:00 p.m. ET
Some Numbers: On Sunday, Bears QB Caleb Williams threw 36 passes, only 5 of which went to his tight ends. Not a great ratio for fantasy or reality.
The Eye and Gut Test: If you think a timeshare backfield is a pain in the tush, let’s talk TE timeshare for a team that has a ton of pass-catching weapons. Ugh.
Colston Loveland PrizePicks Projection: 28.5 Receiving Yards
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