Week 1 of the NFL season is stupid.
Okay, let’s rephrase that: Week 1 of the NFL season is awesome, but Week 1 start ‘em, sit ‘em prognosticating is stupid.
Y’see, we prognosticators base our predictions on this funny little thing we call statistics, but here in Week 1, we have no true stats to work with, do we? What with the infusion of rookies, free agents, and new coaching staffs across the league, the NFL's 2024 numbers are virtually useless.
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And save for the Broncos, Bills, and Packers, each NFL franchise saw some significant turnover over the last eight months:
- Jets: 22 new players, 58.0% returning
- Titans: 22 new players, 59.4% returning
- 49ers: 20 new players, 63.0% returning
- Raiders: 20 new players, 62.1% returning
- Vikings: 20 new players, 61.7% returning
- Browns: 19 new players, 64.0% returning
- Chargers: 19 new players, 64.1% returning
- Dolphins: 19 new players, 63.8% returning
- Jaguars: 19 new players, 63.9% returning
- Bears: 17 new players, 67.7% returning
- Eagles: 17 new players, 68.3% returning
- Patriots: 17 new players, 67.7% returning
- Steelers: 17 new players, 67.2% returning
- Ravens: 16 new players, 70.5% returning
- Seahawks: 16 new players, 70.3% returning
- Texans: 16 new players, 70.1% returning
- Colts: 15 new players, 72.6% returning
- Panthers: 15 new players, 71.2% returning
- Cardinals: 14 new players, 74.3% returning
- Falcons: 14 new players, 73.8% returning
- Chiefs: 13 new players, 74.6% returning
- Commanders: 13 new players, 75.9% returning
- Saints: 13 new players, 76.1% returning
- Buccaneers: 12 new players, 78.1% returning
- Cowboys: 12 new players, 77.9% returning
- Giants: 12 new players, 76.8% returning
- Rams: 12 new players, 77.0% returning
- Bengals: 11 new players, 79.1% returning
- Lions: 11 new players, 80.0% returning
- Bills: 8 new players, 84.2% returning
- Packers: 8 new players, 84.5% returning
- Broncos: 7 new players, 86.0% returning
All of which means that for our opening week start em’, sit ‘ems, we have to go with our guts and the eye test. And my gut and eyes tells me that Aaron Rodgers is a tool. (Yep, I’m a Chicago Bears fan.) My gut also tells me to tread lightly in D.C., and to pounce in Foxborough.
(Editor’s note: For our 2025 start/sits, we’re blowing off D/ST and kickers. Realistically, it’s a freaking dart-throw, and, let’s be honest, folks, who has the time?)
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em, NFL Week 1
QUARTERBACK: Start 'Em
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Raiders
Save for Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy — who’s a rookie despite being not a rookie — I’m all-in on this season’s crop of sophomore QBs. Over in Chicago, Caleb Williams will thrive in new coach Ben Johnson’s offense. In Denver, Bo Nix will build upon his stellar late-season performance. In Washington, save for this coming Sunday, Jayden Daniels will (usually) continue doing Jayden Daniels things.
And in New England, Drake Maye will blow the eff up.
He has a nifty weapon in newly-arrived WR Stefon Diggs, he has ballsy O.C. Josh McDaniel calling plays, and he has a year of experience under his belt. Against Las Vegas’ traditionally garbage defense, the North Carolina product will thrive.
Panthers QB Bryce Young vs. Jaguars
At the tail-end of the 2024 season, Young was a solid DFS play, while in terms of season-long, he was a quality streamer from November on. With a legit WR1 in rookie Tetairoa McMillan, the 24-year-old should continue his ascension against an up-and-down Jacksonville D.
Colts QB Daniel Jones vs. Dolphins
As a fan, if Daniel Jones was my team’s starting QB, I wouldn’t feel great about life. But fantasy-wise, if Daniel Jones was my QB2 in a two-quarterback league, I’d be like, “Yeah, okay, that’ll do.”
The former Giant has solid wheels, and considering Indy’s wide receiver room ain’t all that — sorry, Michael Pittman, but you know I’m right —Jones will use his legs early and often against a Miami team that looks like it’ll implode by Week 6.
QUARTERBACK: Sit 'Em
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels vs. Giants
Am I the only one who remembers that the rookie version of Houston QB C.J. Stroud was a beast, but the sophomore version was solid-but-not-spectacular? His year-two slide was understandable, as 31 teams had a whole offseason to figure him out…and figure him out they did.
Daniels’ potential second-year ding, combined with the fact that the Jints defense could be one of the league’s surprise units, makes him a shaky play here in Week 1.
Titans QB Cam Ward vs. Broncos & Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy vs. Bears
I have zero interest in starting a road-tripping rookie signal caller in Week 1. Next.
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold vs. 49ers
I am so not on board the Sam Darnold Train.
Considering that up until last year, Slingin’ Sammy mediocre’d his way through the NFL tells me that his brilliant 2024 in Minnesota was a fluke. I mean, he had head coach/quarterback whisperer overlording the offense, and what with monster WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and TE T.J. Hockenson in the huddle, his pass catching weaponry was among the most dangerous in the league.
Hell, with all those factors in place, I’d have been able to put up a 102.5 passer rating, and I can barely run around the block without pulling a hammy.
Despite an interesting pair of receivers in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp, Darnold won’t make hay against an always-respectable 49ers D,
RUNNING BACK: Start 'Em
Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty vs. Patriots
If I had it to do all over again, I’d have grabbed the rookie in the first three picks in one of my fantasy drafts. He’s going to be Bijan Robinson on steroids, and has a legit shot of finishing the season as RB1.
With disgruntled Jakobi Myers and newcomer Amari Cooper as his top two receivers, Vegas QB Geno Smith will be forced to rely on stud TE Brock Bowers, who’ll spend the game fighting off quadruple coverage, so Jeanty should have opportunities galore.
Jets RB Breece Hall vs. Steelers
Despite the presence of T.J. Watt, I have exactly zero faith the Pittsburgh Steelers D. Admittedly, I’m not super-psyched about the Jets offense either, but in the Steel City, Hall will flash the chops that made him a second- or third-round fantasy option in 2024.
Packers RB Josh Jacobs vs. Lions
Jacobs is arguably the NFL’s most bell-cowy bell-cow back. I mean, up until I went to the Packers depth chart, like, three seconds ago, I didn’t know who else populated the Green Bay running back room. (For the record, it’s some dude named Emanuel Wilson, and some other dude named Chris Brooks.)
Jacobs is a weekly plug-and-play option, and by Week 3, you’ll be super-annoyed you didn’t grab him in your draft’s second round.
RUNNING BACK: Sit 'Em
Bears RB D’Andre Swift vs. Vikings
For reasons that are beyond my understanding, Ben Johnson adores D’Andre Swift. Me, not so much.
But hold on a sec, it’s possible that Johnson isn’t as enamored with Swift as he claims, because D.J. Moore has been getting reps in the Bears’ backfield throughout training camp. Less opportunity for Swift means less fantasy production, even in a cray-cray Ben Johnson offense.
Titans RB Tony Pollard vs. Broncos
I know, I know, Tennessee has a rookie quarterback, and Pollard’s blurry-fast backup Tyjae Spears is down for the count, so one would assume that Pollard would be a logical play. But the Titans are on the road, staring down a sneaky-tough Denver defense, so I’ll take a pass.
Cowboys RB Javonte Williams vs. Eagles
Aside from CeeDee Lamb and (maybe) Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are a mess. Moving on…
WIDE RECEIVER: Start 'Em
Bengals WR Tee Higgins vs. Browns
Two reasons why Higgins is The Guy on opening day: 1) Cleveland’s pretty darn good defensive backfield will throw everything at Higgins’ running buddy Ja’Marr Chase, leaving Higgins to sort of roam free, and 2) Tee will want to justify his shiny new contract. Let the Joe Burrow MVP March begin.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Titans
Tennessee’s defense is a big bowl of meh. Bo Nix isn’t. So don’t sleep on Sutton, one of the most slept-on WR1s in the league.
Bears WR D.J. Moore vs. Vikings
As noted, Moore has seen practice time in the backfield, so he might evolve into Deebo Samuel 2.0. And when he was healthy, Deebo Samuel 1.0 was a league-winning fantasy option — and I can say that with absolute authority, as he won me a league in 2021.
WIDE RECEIVER: Sit 'Em
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Giants
Logic dictates that if I’m going to sit Jayden Daniels, I should also sit his WR1. The fact that McLaurin missed all of training camp makes him that much less appealing, especially against that emerging Giants D.
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Chiefs
In their brief preseason action, the Chiefs’ defense looked like a freakin’ brick wall, so down in Brazil, it’ll be a tough day for Bolts’ QB Justin Herbert. On the plus side, the Chargers can get some quality samba-ing in after they get crushed by the defending AFC champs.
Titans WR Calvin Ridley vs. Broncos
Remember how I mentioned in my McLaurin capsule that logic dictates you sit a WR1 if his QB is in for a difficult afternoon? Yeah, same deal here.
TIGHT END: Start 'Em
Bears TE Colston Loveland vs. Vikings
This one is strictly a fan deal. I loved the draft pick, and I loved how the Michigan product looked in the preseason, so I’m going to love him as my TE1.
Patriots TE Hunter Henry vs. Raiders
Last season, who led the Pats in receiving yards, catches, and targets? Yep, Hunter Henry. Even with Diggs in the house, Henry will still be a legit option for Maye.
TIGHT END: Sit 'Em
Commanders TE Zach Ertz vs. Giants
See: McLaurin, Terry.
Colts TE Tyler Warren vs. Dolphins
I’m a Warren truther, and would’ve been perfectly pleased had the Bears drafted him over Loveland. But, as noted, Daniel Jones will be running for his life, and none of the Colts’ pass catchers will have a chance to shine.
Lions TE Sam LaPorta vs. Packers
Not sure if you heard, but Green Bay stole, er, acquired one Micah Parsons from the Cowboys, and even though the All-World EDGE has had about six seconds to learn the Packers’ playbook, he’s still Micah Parsons, and the new arrival will turn the Lions offensive at least somewhat upside down. The fact that Detroit’s plays will be called by some dude named John Morton (who?) won’t help his cause.
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