Game 4 of the Spurs vs. Timberwolves Western Conference semifinals series tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 10. The Spurs enter the Mother’s Day hoops contest as 4.5-point favorites against the Wolves.
Minnesota kept things close in front of its home crowd on Friday night, but C Victor Wembanyama spoiled its party and wound up leading San Antonio to a seven-point triumph. What could be in store on Sunday?
Below, we'll break down our Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction and picks for Sunday’s NBA Playoff Game 4, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s Game 4.
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Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Game 4 – Sunday, May 10
These are two of the West’s feistiest teams, and that dates back to the regular season. San Antonio won a whopping 62 of 80 games, slotting into the No. 2 seed behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. Minnesota’s 49-33 record got it the final automatic bid for the NBA Playoffs.
Both sides have lived up to the hype thus far in this series. Game 1 was an absolute thriller in which the Spurs had a last-second shot to win but fell by two points. They came back with a vengeance in Game 2, drubbing the Wolves by 38 and posting a well-rounded team performance.
Game 3 was another contested battle, with the Timberwolves actually being more efficient from the free throw line and snagging 6 more rebounds than their counterparts. In the end, though, it was Wembanyama’s 39 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 blocks that made the difference.
San Antonio’s roster undoubtedly has more talent than Minnesota’s, but the Timberwolves have shown before that they can’t be overlooked. Will that grit shine through again tonight?
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spread, Over/Under for Game 4 – Sunday, May 10
The Spurs enter Sunday’s game as 4.5-point favorites against the Timberwolves on the road, returning a 1.49x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Spurs vs. Timberwolves game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (1.78x payout)
- Over/Under: 217.5 (1.78x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Spurs 1.49x | Timberwolves 2.5x
Make your Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction on spread on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Timeline
Here is the full Spurs vs. Timberwolves timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.
All-Time: Spurs, 104-49
Regular Season: Timberwolves, 2-1
Series: Spurs, 2-1
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs
- Game 1: Timberwolves, 104-102
- Game 2: Spurs, 133-95
- Game 3: Spurs, 115-108
- Game 4: Sunday, May 10, 7:30 p.m. in Minnesota
- Game 5: Tuesday, May 12, TBD in San Antonio
- Games 6-7 if necessary
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction on Spread for Game 4 – 5/10/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Spurs vs. Timberwolves prediction on the spread for Sunday, May 10.
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- The Spurs boast a 16-12-1 record against the spread as road favorites this season. As home underdogs, the Timberwolves are 5-5 ATS.
- San Antonio’s offense is dominant inside the arc, sitting fourth in 2-point percentage (56.9%) and ninth in points in the paint each game (51.7).
- Although the Timberwolves hold foes to the No. 5-ranked 2-point clip (52.7%), they’re 18th in paint scoring allowed (50.8 PPG).
- A potential weakness for Minnesota’s offense is its lack of ball movement, as evidenced by a 21st ranking in assists per made shot (0.610). The Spurs’ defense is ninth in the same category.
- Minnesota also struggles to capitalize at the free throw line, as its 74.9% conversion rate is second-worst. No team surrenders fewer free throw attempts per field goal try than San Antonio (0.229).
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 5/10/26
Here are three top Spurs vs. Timberwolves picks to target for Sunday, May 10 on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include C Victor Wembanyama, G Stephon Castle, and SG Anthony Edwards.
Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Timberwolves Projection: 39.5 Pts + Rebs
- After his outburst in Game 3, Wembanyama is up to scoring 21.9 points per playoff game while shooting 54.1% from the field and 36.4% from deep.
- The Alien’s efficiency near the basket has been absurd in the first and second rounds; he’s made 78.8% of attempts from 0-3 feet and 70.6% from 3-10 feet.
- Via NBA Advanced Stats, Wembanyama ranks sixth among all postseason players in average rebounding chances with 17.1.
- Wemby has upped his block rate from 9.4% in the regular season to 14.4% in the postseason, another potential avenue for extra boards.
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Spurs G Stephon Castle vs. Timberwolves Projection: 28.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- The 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year produced an average of 29.4 combined points, rebounds, and assists in the regular season. That number is 29.3 in the playoffs.
- Castle’s 3-point shot remains alive and well. After making 41.7% of them after the All-Star break, he’s converting at the exact same clip in the postseason.
- According to databallr, Castle’s 9.1% defensive rebounding rate is an 82nd-percentile benchmark.
- The sophomore guard nets 15.3 potential assists per 100 possessions in the NBA Playoffs and spends 34.3% of his time on-ball.
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Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards vs. Spurs Projection: 25.5 Points
- Edwards may be averaging just 19.4 points in the postseason, but he showed serious signs of life in Game 3 by pouring in 32 on 12-of-26 shooting.
- Ant-Man’s 29.7 true shot attempts per 100 possessions puts him in the 96th percentile.
- Per NBA RAPM, Edwards is posting 1.28 points per possession in playoff isolations, which ranks in the 97th percentile.
- Castle has been Edwards’ primary assignment this series, and he’s posting a ridiculous 68% eFG% against him to go with 24.2 points per 75.
Add Anthony Edwards to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Spurs vs. Timberwolves on PrizePicks for Game 4
Here are some angles to target for your Spurs vs. Timberwolves live picks.
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- These are teams that start games on a positive note, albeit on different sides of the ball. The Timberwolves’ defense is eighth in both first- and second-quarter scoring, but the Spurs are second and first, respectively, on offense.
- Minnesota plays an uptempo style of basketball, leading the 16-team NBA Playoff crop in pace at 100.28. San Antonio’s not too far behind at 99.0 (third).
- If the Wolves get down, could they have an advantage? Via NBA Advanced Stats, head coach Chris Finch’s group leads the postseason in fourth-quarter net rating at +15.7. The Spurs’ +10.9 mark is fourth.
- Ironically, Timberwolves PF Julius Randle has been a significantly worse player at home this season. On 2.0% higher usage than on the road, he’s shooting 3.0% worse from the field and 8.3% worse from 3-point land.
- According to databallr, the Spurs have a significant 5.6% advantage in free throw rate in the second round.
Make Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Picks on PrizePicks
With Wembanyama flexing his muscles as the series goes on, Sunday could be a breaking point for Minnesota if it can’t contain San Antonio. In a downright critical Game 4, which side will come out on top?
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