Tonight, the Houston Rockets (1-2) face the Golden State Warriors (1-2) in NBA Cup group play. The game tips off at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Both teams sit at the bottom of West Group C after dropping two of their first three tournament games, and with only two group-stage contests left, this one is virtually a must-win for each side.
Below, we’ll break down our Rockets vs. Warriors prediction and player picks for Wednesday’s NBA Cup matchup, including top picks on PrizePicks’ real-money NBA game for PG Steph Curry and G Amen Thompson.
Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction, Preview for NBA Cup Today
Let’s break down Houston and Golden State as they head into their NBA Cup 2025 matchup.
Rockets Preview vs. Warriors
- The Houston Rockets come in riding an 8–2 stretch over their last 10 games and sit at 11–4, good for fourth in the Western Conference.
- They’ve been efficient on both ends during that run, shooting 47.7% from the field and posting a +99 point differential over those 10 contests.
- The Rockets will be without superstar F Kevin Durant due to personal reasons, while G Dorian Finney-Smith, C Steven Adams, and F Tari Eason are also sidelined by injuries.
Warriors Preview vs. Rockets
- The Golden State Warriors (10–9) enter tonight’s group-stage game having dropped three of their last four, looking to get back on track after a shaky stretch.
- Golden State sits in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, leaning heavily on Steph Curry’s 28.8 PPG to drive the attack.
- The Warriors will be without F Jonathan Kuminga, who remains sidelined due to bilateral knee tendonitis, while G De’Anthony Melton and F/C Al Horford are also out.
- Golden State sits eighth in the Western Conference and draws a Houston team that has been one of the league’s hottest over the past two weeks.
The Rockets enter this NBA Cup matchup as slight 4.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.08x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Warriors are home favorites with a 1.69x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Golden State Warriors -4.5
- Total: 227.5
- Game Winner Payout: Rockets 2.08x | Warriors 1.69x
Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction, NBA Picks
Below are three top Rockets vs. Warriors NBA DFS picks for Wednesday’s NBA Cup matchup. Use PrizePicks' real-money NBA game and win real money if your NBA picks are right.
Warriors PG Steph Curry vs. Rockets Projection: 26.5 Points
- Curry has exceeded 26.5 points in nine of 19 games this season (47%), including four of his last five.
- The All-Star guard is averaging 28.8 PPG, seventh in the NBA, and he’s putting up 29.0 per game at Chase Center.
- Point guards are averaging 22.7 PPG against Houston this season, while shooting guards are putting up 19.5 PPG.
- The 16-year veteran’s 32.8% usage rate ranks tenth in the league, and he remains the clear engine of Golden State’s offense.
- Curry owns a 28–17 record against the Rockets, averaging 24.2 points in 34.8 minutes across those matchups.
Rockets G Amen Thompson vs. Warriors Projection: 19.5 Points
- Thompson has been on a tear, scoring in double figures in all 15 games while averaging 17.9 points per contest. He matched his season high with 28 in Houston’s 114–92 win over Phoenix.
- The Warriors rank seventh in points allowed to point guards (27.0 PPG) this season.
- Golden State's defense has allowed 116.2 PPG in its last five games (2-3 record).
- With Durant sidelined, Thompson’s usage has jumped from 20.1% to 27.0%, giving him the volume to push past 19.5 points again.
- The third-year guard has scored at least 24 points in two of his last three meetings with Golden State, showing upside in this matchup.
Rockets C Alperen Sengun vs. Warriors Projection: 10.5 Rebounds
- Sengun has pulled down 11 or more rebounds in six of 15 games this season, averaging 9.7 boards overall and 11.6 per game over his last five meetings with Golden State.
- The Warriors sit around league average in total rebounds allowed (53.5 per game) but still give up 15.2 RPG to opposing centers.
- Golden State's defensive rebounding struggles are glaring, as they rank just 20th in defensive rebounds per game (31.6) and 14th in defensive rebounding percentage (73.7%).
- The fourth-year big man owns a 25.9% usage rate while logging 36.7 minutes per night, helping Houston lead the league with 61.3 total rebounds per game.
This NBA Cup showdown offers plenty of options to make your NBA picks on PrizePicks. Just predict More or Less on NBA player projections and win real money if your picks are right.
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