There’s nothing better than spending Thanksgiving with family and friends… but it doesn’t hit the same without NFL football. And that’s exactly what the annual PrizePicks Thanksgiving NFL Lineup is all about.
Six experts from our PrizePicks Playbook staff broke down their favorite PrizePicks picks across thousands of NFL Thanksgiving projections — two picks in each of the three NFL Thanksgiving games.
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Boom. You’re welcome. Now, let’s dig into these Thanksgiving picks to help you build your PrizePicks Lineups.
Packers WR Christian Watson vs. Lions – 3.5 Receptions
The Detroit Lions run man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Christian Watson is the exact archetype of receiver who punishes that scheme.
Despite logging only 35 routes vs. man coverage this season, Watson has already produced 6 receptions, 92 yards, and 2 TDs. For context, Romeo Doubs has run more than double the routes vs. man (82) yet has only 12 catches and 3 TDs.
This isn’t new for Watson. With a minimum of 25 man-coverage routes last season, he posted the 5th-highest average depth of target (18.82) and ranked 13th in targets per route run against man in 2024 among all wide receivers.
Detroit has consistently struggled to stay in phase with him. Across his last three meetings with the Lions, Watson has drawn 7+ targets in every game, and since returning from injury this year, his usage is trending up again with 5 and 7 targets in his last two outings and a rising snap share.
Note: Packers WR Matthew Golden is questionable to play vs. the Lions; if active, he will likely reduce Watson’s snap share and route participation.
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Packers – 109.5 Rush+Rec Yards
Gibbs has gone scorched earth recently in this third season, with more than 145 rushing + receiving yards in four of his last five games. That includes two games of more than 200.
The Lions currently hold the final NFC playoff spot as the eighth seed, but they are still in contention in the NFC North, just one game behind the Bears and Packers for first in the division.
The big boost in production is likely due to the increase in playing time, as he’s been on the field for more than 70% of the offensive snaps in back-to-back games. Gibbs has at least 17 touches in five of his last six games.
The matchup doesn’t look great on paper, as Green Bay ranks sixth in run defense, allowing just 96.5 rushing yards per game. However, Gibbs has looked somewhat matchup proof; he recently rushed for 136 yards against Tampa Bay, which ranks eighth in the same metric. The Packers also recently allowed Eagles RB Saquon Barkley to go for 101 rush+rec yards in Week 10.
In a key game for playoff positioning, look for the Lions to continue to give the ball to their hot hand, and this could be the fourth straight week where Gibbs gets 19+ touches. That volume could push him to a big day in an important game.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Cowboys – 267.5 Pass Yards
Mahomes threw for a season-high 352 yards in a 23-20 overtime win over the Colts in Week 12. The three-time Super Bowl champ has recorded at least 276 passing yards in four of his last five games.
The Chiefs have asked him to take more deep shots this year, which has resulted in him increasing his average target depth from 6.3 yards last season to 8.3 yards this year.
This game being played in Dallas — as is Thanksgiving tradition — is worth noting, as Mahomes has averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game on the road, compared to 36.5 pass attempts per game home matchup.
This is a favorable matchup for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing attack, considering that the Cowboys have given up third-highest yards per pass attempt (7.84) in the NFL. Dallas has also allowed an average of 311.2 passing yards across their five home games in 2025.
Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson vs. Chiefs – 4.5 Receptions
Ferguson is quietly second amongst tight ends in targets (77) and receptions (65) this year, and first in receiving TDs (7). He’s a security blanket for QB Dak Prescott, who has a 116.5 passer rating when targeting Ferguson.
The Chiefs have allowed 4+ receptions to tight ends Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, Zach Ertz, Sam LaPorta, and Tyler Warren over the last six games.
Ferguson has 14 receptions on 18 targets over the last three games and has hit more than 4.5 receptions in 8-of-11 games this season.
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Ravens – 25.5 Yards Longest Reception
With QB Joe Burrow assumed to return and WR Tee Higgins out with a concussion, the stage is set for Chase to have plenty of work. In Burrow's first game back, Chase is likely to be the logical the priority target.
It’s a great matchup for Burrow to return, as Chase has 467 yards and almost 22 yards per reception in his last two games vs. the Ravens.
Chase has garnered a near-30% target share vs. man coverage this year, and the Ravens run the sixth-most man coverage in the league. They have also struggled containing the deep ball, allowing 12 different WRs to notch a 26+ yard catch this season.
Last year, Chase burned the Ravens for 70-yard catches in both matchups vs. their division rivals.
Bengals RB Chase Brown vs. Ravens — 3 Receptions
It’s easy to love Chase Brown purely on a volume basis; he’s a true three-down back, playing at least 82% of the Bengals snaps in every game since Week 9. In those games, Brown has run 121 routes; the only other Bengals RB with routes run is Tahj Brooks with 11.
That volume has been reflected in the stat sheet, as Brown has 16 catches through his last three games (5.3 receptions per game). His 57 targets on the season are third on the team; his target rate is fifth among NFL RBs. On the season, Brown has 3+ catches in 6-of-11 games played, and dating back to 2024, Brown has hit this mark in 14-of-19 games.
The matchup looks pretty tasty too. The Ravens are 25th in receiving yards allowed per pass to RBs, per PFF Key Insights. In a Thursday night game vs. the Ravens last November, Brown was a key cog in the Bengals’ pass game, totaling 9 catches on 11 targets for 52 yards.
To sweeten the deal, Bengals will be without WR Tee Higgins, who is averaging 6.4 targets per game played. That opens up more opportunity for Brown to get involved in Joe Burrow’s return.
Make NFL Thanksgiving Picks on PrizePicks
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Keep it locked to The Playbook throughout Thursday’s Thanksgiving NFL games for picks and predictions from our NFL experts.
