At the end of the AFC playoff bracket, the top two seeds are still standing. Sunday sees the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos collide in the conference title game.
Ahead of the AFC Championship Game (3:00 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+), New England is riding the hot hand of MVP candidate QB Drake Maye. On the other end, Denver is without a key piece and turns to backup QB Jarrett Stidham for the biggest game of the year.
Below, we’ll break down our Patriots vs. Broncos prediction and picks to consider for the AFC Championship Game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right.
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Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Sunday marks the 56th all-time meeting between the Patriots and Broncos. Denver leads the series 31-24. The last time these two sides faced off in the postseason, it was the 2016 AFC Championship Game, with the Broncos squeaking by 20-18.
On the injury front, the elephant in the room is Broncos QB Bo Nix. The second-year signal-caller suffered a fractured bone in his ankle late in Denver’s 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. Following successful surgery for Nix, all eyes are on Stidham.
Elsewhere, the Broncos have ruled out RB J.K. Dobbins (foot), TE Lucas Krull (foot), and LB Drew Sanders (ankle). The Patriots are without LB Harold Landry III (knee) and list four others as questionable for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under, Spread
The Patriots enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.4x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Broncos are home underdogs with a 2.77x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: New England Patriots -3.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Game Winner Payout: Patriots 1.4x | Broncos 2.77x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Patriots vs. Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.
- The Patriots are tied with the Seattle Seahawks for the top cover percentage (72.2) in the NFL. As road favorites, they’re 3-1 against the spread.
- New England’s offense, fueled by Maye, is elite. It ranks fourth in points per drive and third in yards per possession.
- On defense, despite not boasting elite talent on paper, the Patriots do more than get by. They’re a top-10 unit in per-drive scoring (ninth) and yardage (10th).
- Denver’s offense is difficult to figure out. It sits near the bottom third of the NFL in per-drive production and is now without Nix for the AFC Championship Game.
- The Broncos do their damage on defense. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph coaches a group that’s allowed the second-fewest yards and third-fewest points.
Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship Game Picks
Here are three Patriots vs. Broncos picks for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QBs Drake Maye and Jarrett Stidham and RB RJ Harvey.
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Broncos Projection: 263.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- During the regular season, Maye averaged 285 combined passing and rushing yards. That number is down to 261.5 in two playoff games.
- The second-year stud has taken a whopping 5 sacks in each of his first two postseason outings.
- Maye thrives on chunk throws down the field but, per Jefe’s Handiwork, the Broncos rank second in lowest explosive play rate allowed.
- Denver’s defense sits sixth with -0.11 EPA surrendered per pass and allowed just 311 rushing yards to QBs from Weeks 1-18.
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Broncos QB Jarrett Stidham vs. Patriots Projection: 201.5 Pass Yards
- Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass since January 7, 2024, making it over two years since he’s played meaningful football.
- The former Patriots draft pick owns a career 78.3 passer rating, an ugly 59.4% completion rate, and a middling 7.2 yards per attempt.
- Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (159 passing yards) and Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud (4.51 yards per attempt) failed to find success against New England in the Wild Card game and Divisional Round, respectively.
- Via nfelo, the Broncos ranked seventh this year with a +1.6% pass rate over expected. Pending a big Patriots lead, that very well could be the opposite case with Stidham under center.
Broncos RB RJ Harvey vs. Patriots Projection: 66.5 Rush + Rec Yards
- Harvey turned in 52.7 scrimmage yards per game during the regular season. In a Divisional Round win over the Buffalo Bills, he logged 66 on just 11 touches.
- From Weeks 11-18, the second-round rookie netted an average of 13.7 rush attempts each week.
- Per NFL Pro, among all players, Harvey has the seventh-most catches (42) on routes run from a backfield alignment. He’s also tied for the most such TDs with 5.
- Harvey leads all rookies with 50+ targets in passer rating when thrown to (120.6), according to Pro Football Focus.
Make Patriots vs. Broncos Picks on PrizePicks
Ahead of New England and Denver clashing, there are plenty of opportunities for Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship Game picks.
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