Although the NBA playoffs are staring down the basketball world, there’s still plenty of time for teams to make their cases as contenders. On Monday, two of the best go at it when the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder clash.
In a rematch of a series from last year’s postseason, there’s no love lost between these squads. As two of the premier clubs in the Western Conference, Monday’s game carries ample importance for seeding, confidence, and everything in between. The 7:30 p.m. ET bout can be viewed on both NBC and Peacock.
Below, we’ll break down our Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction and picks for Monday night’s game. Make your NBA picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Nuggets shocked the world when they parted ways with head coach Michael Malone and ushered in the David Adelman era late last season. Despite dealing with tons of injuries this year, some offseason acquisitions have helped propel Denver to a 39-25 record, good for the No. 5 seed in the West.
The Thunder, meanwhile, picked up where they left off and have nursed injuries of their own. The reigning champs own the best record in the NBA at 50-15 and sit 2.5 games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs for the West’s No. 1 playoff seed.
Denver and Oklahoma City have met 205 times in the regular season. OKC possesses a 109-96 series lead, including consecutive wins last month by a combined 25 points.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Spread, Over/Under
The Nuggets enter Monday’s game as 5.5-point road underdogs, returning a 3.12x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Thunder are home favorites with a 1.38x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
- Over/Under: 231.5
- Game Winner Payout: Nuggets 3.12x | Thunder 1.38x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Nuggets vs. Thunder injury report for Monday, via NBA.com.
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- PG Jamal Murray (ankle): Questionable
- F Peyton Watson (hamstring): OUT
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
- C Branden Carlson (back): OUT
- G Alex Caruso (hip): OUT
- C Isaiah Hartenstein (calf): OUT
- C-PF Chet Holmgren (flu): Questionable
- F-G Jalen Williams (hamstring): OUT
Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction on spread for Monday, March 9 on PrizePicks.
- The Nuggets own the NBA’s third-best against-the-spread record as road underdogs, going 9-2. The Thunder are a middling 14-17 ATS as home favorites.
- Denver puts up more points on a nightly basis (120.2) than any NBA franchise, also boasting the top effective field goal percentage (57.1) this season.
- Defensively, while the Nuggets are far from perfect, they rank 14th in opponent points per shot at 1.146.
- The Thunder offense is certainly no slouch, ranking fourth in scoring (118.6 PPG) and fifth in eFG% (55.8).
- It’s the other end of the court where Oklahoma City earns its keep. The Thunder cede the league’s lowest shooting percentage (43.5) and fewest fastbreak PPG (11.6).
Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/9/26
Here are three top Nuggets vs. Thunder picks to target for Monday, March 9 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic, and PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Nuggets PF Aaron Gordon vs. Thunder Projection: 17.5 Pts + Rebs
- Gordon averages 23 combined points and rebounds in 27.6 minutes per game. In his return to the lineup on Friday, he played 21 minutes with just 6 points and boards.
- The former Orlando Magic standout is a premier shooter for a forward now, canning 41.8% of his 3-point tries in the last two campaigns.
- The 12th-year man owns an 18.5% defensive rebounding rate, his highest since 2019-20.
- With Hartenstein out and Holmgren compromised, the Thunder frontcourt is at far less than full strength for Monday’s matchup.
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Nuggets C Nikola Jokic vs. Thunder Projection: 49.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Jokic fills up the stat sheet on a nightly basis, posting 51.6 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). Since rejoining the lineup on January 30, that average is 49.4.
- The multi-time MVP is shooting 30.3% from deep in the aforementioned stretch.
- Per databallr, Jokic rebounds just 8.8% of his teammates’ misses, a 36th-percentile mark.
- While Jokic does lead the sport in assist rate at 50.9%, his 15.1% turnover mark is his worst in three seasons.
Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nuggets Projection: 43.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Gilgeous-Alexander’s per-game PRA total is 42.4. In four games since returning from injury, it’s down to 40.4.
- The defending NBA MVP is playing uber-efficient basketball, owning career highs for PER (31.2) and true shooting percentage (66.5).
- SGA owns a 10.7% defensive rebounding clip, sitting in the 70th percentile.
- The Nuggets rank 18th in assists per game allowed at 27.2. Via NBA RAPM, Gilgeous-Alexander averages a personal best 9.1 assists per 100 possessions.
Make Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks on PrizePicks
Nuggets vs. Thunder picks aren’t the only avenue hoops fans have to getting in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
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