The American Conference Championship takes place in the Big Easy on Friday night, but it may be anything but easy for North Texas and Tulane. Green takes center stage in New Orleans as the Mean Green (11-1) look to build on the best season in school history, battling the Green Wave (10-2).
Both teams are seeking a spot in the College Football Playoff, although each head coach has accepted a job at a Power 5 school. Tulane’s Jon Sumrall is headed to Gainesville as the new coach at Florida, while North Texas' Eric Morris will take over at Oklahoma State. Each coach will remain with his respective team until the conclusion of the season.
The Green Wave sit 20th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, while the Mean Green are 24th. One team from the Group of 5 conferences is guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Tulane, North Texas, and James Madison will duke it out for that position.
Let’s dive into a North Texas vs. Tulane prediction and picks for the AAC Championship, kicking off at 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Use PrizePicks CFB to win real-money rewards if your Week 15 CFB picks are right.
North Texas vs. Tulane Prediction, Preview for 12/5
North Texas enters this matchup as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 1.66x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Tulane, playing for the AAC title for the fourth year in a row, is a home underdog with a 2.08x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: North Texas -2.5
- Total: 67.5
- Game Winner Payout: North Texas 1.66x | Tulane 2.08x
Payouts are as of Friday, 11 a.m. ET and are subject to change.
Here are some stats to get you set for North Texas vs. Tulane:
- The Mean Green are participating in the American Conference title game for the first time since entering the league in 2023.
- North Texas closed the regular season with five scoring outputs of more than 50 points in the final six games.
- In the last 10 contests, UNT covered the point spread nine times. The only non-cover came in the team’s 63-36 loss to USF.
- North Texas posted a perfect 5-0 road record with two overtime victories: against Western Michigan on Sept. 6 and at Army two weeks later.
- Tulane finished 7-1 in American action, falling on the road to UTSA, 48-26, on Oct. 30.
- The Green Wave are the first team in conference history to reach four consecutive championship bouts.
- Tulane outlasted UNT 45-37 in Denton, Texas in their most recent matchup in 2024.
North Texas Mean Green Preview vs. Tulane
- The Mean Green are one of the most dynamic offenses in college football, ranking third in EPA/pass, fifth in EPA/rush, and first in success rate via Game on Paper.
- The rushing defense has struggled, sitting 131st in EPA/rush and 134th in success rate.
- North Texas hit the Over in nine of 12 games, including four of five times with a total of higher than 64.5 points.
Tulane Green Wave Preview vs. North Texas
- Tulane’s net EPA offensively is 23rd, dropping from eighth in 2024.
- The Under has hit in seven of Tulane’s past nine games, with them limiting five foes to 19 or fewer points.
- The Green Wave will look to take advantage of UNT’s soft run defense, but Tulane ranks 99th in EPA/rush.
North Texas vs. Tulane Picks & CFB DFS
Below are the top PrizePicks CFB picks for Friday night’s battle between North Texas and Tulane.
North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker vs. Tulane Projection: 319.5 Passing Yards
- QB Drew Mestemaker led the country with 3,835 passing yards this regular season, highlighted by a 608-yard performance against Charlotte on October 24.
- The freshman topped this passing projection in each of the final two games. He lit up Rice for 469 yards, followed by a 366-yard outing against Temple.
- Tulane ranks 97th in defensive pass success rate, per Game on Paper, which is an incredible drop from 11th in 2024.
- Even taking away the 608-yard eruption against Charlotte, Mestemaker averaged 293.3 passing yards in his other 11 starts.
Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff vs. North Texas Projection: 241.5 Passing Yards
- After two seasons at BYU, QB Jake Retzlaff produced 2,717 passing yards in his first season at Tulane. In his first four games with the Green Wave, the junior threw for more than 152 yards once.
- In Retzlaff’s first three conference games, he bypassed 242 passing yards each time, highlighted by a season-best 347 yards in a 26-19 win over East Carolina.
- In three of the final four home contests, he averaged 285 yards per outing.
- North Texas allowed three QBs to eclipse 242 passing yards, with the highest output being Charlotte’s Grayson Loftis throwing for 295 on October 24.
North Texas RB Caleb Hawkins vs. Tulane Projection: 127.5 Rushing Yards
- RB Caleb Hawkins led the American Conference with 1,216 rushing yards, ranking 13th in the country.
- The freshman ran for a combined 68 yards in the first two games against Lamar and Washington State, then averaged 114.8 yards in the final 10 contests.
- Hawkins turned in some of the top performances in the nation over the final month. He rushed for at least 186 yards in three of the last four games, highlighted by a 197-yard effort against Navy.
- Tulane's defense is 70th in the nation in EPA/rush. The Green Wave allowed more than 100 yards to South Alabama’s Kentrel Bullock (107) in Week 2.
Make College Football Picks on PrizePicks
The American Conference championship is on the line in New Orleans as North Texas and Tulane each look to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff with a victory.
Ahead of the North Texas vs. Tulane kickoff, it's time to make your CFB picks with PrizePicks. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.
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