Just when you think you know everything.
We’re 29.41% through the NFL season — that number is correct, I did the math — which is the point that we can have a solid statistical sample size in our back pocket and feel good about making our fantasy picks, as opposed to Weeks 1-3, when we’re throwing darts and crossing our fingers.
Thing is, there’s only so much that stats can offer in terms of prognosticating a quality fantasy football performance. Sometimes, stuff happens.
- Like when a retread RB drops 200 yards on the ground.
- Like when a journeyman 31-year-old receiver has the game of his life.
- Like when a good QB becomes a great QB before our very eyes.
That’s the good — stats aren’t always great at delivering the bad news, either.
- Like when a Hall of Fame-bound RB is held back by his team’s shockingly terrible defense.
- Like when a clear WR1 devolves into a clear liability.
- Like when a good QB becomes an awful QB before our very eyes.
All of this weirdness was on display during Week 5 of the NFL season. Here’s who won and lost this past Sunday.
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NFL Winners & Losers, Fantasy Football Week 5
(All fantasy points and rankings via FantasyPros.)
WINNER: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is a legit good dude. He’s funny, he’s a great locker room guy, and he’s one of the most inspiring reclamation projects of this era.
And fantasy managers canny enough to grab him late in their draft — and there were plenty of those, as Mayfield’s average ADP was QB7, a good but not great spot — are happy campers.
He’s outplayed his ADP — he’s currently 2025’s QB5 — and he hasn’t finished a single game with less than 17.7 fantasy points.
Tampa’s schedule before their bye isn’t super-fantasy-friendly — vs. San Francisco (15th-ranked defense), at Detroit (eighth-ranked), and at New Orleans (18th-ranked) — but on the tote board, the former No. 1 draft pick is a better performer than fantasy darlings Matthew Stafford (QB9), Drake Maye (QB10), Daniel Jones (QB11), and Jared Goff (QB16).
Roll with Baker and enjoy the ride.
LOSER: Ravens RB Derrick Henry
If I wasn’t such a nice person, I’d give the Baltimore Ravens their own loser category. But I’m a warm and fuzzy individual, so I’ll dump it all on a single guy, that being one of the greatest players — not just running back, but players — of his era.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry has been a statistical bust here in ‘25, averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game, and falling to RB18. For a guy you probably drafted in the third round, that’s a problem.
We likely won’t see improvement anytime soon. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson could miss next week, as per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, and if wobbly Ravens backup QB Cooper Rush continues his wobbliness, Ravens OC Todd Monken could lean on King Henry, thus, next week’s opponents, the Los Angeles Rams, and their tenth-ranked D, could key on Henry, possibly giving him his fifth-straight single-digit fantasy outing. Yikes.
WINNER: Commanders WR Deebo Samuel
It’s always awkward to give props to a player who’s excelling in part because one of his teammates is on the shelf, but sometimes, it just has to happen. So let’s say hello to Washington WR Deebo Samuel.
With the Commanders’ ostensible WR1 Terry McLaurin out for who-knows-how-long, Samuel becomes the Commanders’ ostensible WR1, and he’s been taking advantage of his climb up the depth chart, landing at WR9 with an 11.7 fantasy point average, putting him ahead of Cincy’s Ja’Marr Chase, Minny’s Justin Jefferson, and Houston’s Nico Collins.
If you drafted him in the sixth-round (like me), you’re a happy camper (like me).
LOSER: Eagles WR A.J. Brown
On the other end of the wide receiver spectrum, let’s check in with Eagles WR A.J. Brown.
To paraphrase the late, great coach Denny Green, the Eagles offense isn’t what we thought it was. They’re ranked 30th in total yards per game, and, more egregiously for the sake of this conversation, 30th in passing yards.
Fantasy-wise, Brown is suffering the most of any Philly skill player — although RB Saquon Barkley (RB10) might have something to say about that — currently sitting at WR63 (!). Since, as noted, I’m genuinely nice person, I won’t list any of the small names above Brown on the list, but suffice it to say that a 5.1 fantasy point average ain’t exactly what you’re looking for from a guy you probably snatched up at some point in the first five rounds.
WINNER: Patriots WR Stefon Diggs
During the Sunday Night Football pregame show, Pats receiver Stefon Diggs gave an interview that was both surprising and heartening, and I say “heartening” because the guy has a reputation.
But on Sunday night, he drove his former team to distraction, grabbing 10 balls and dumping 146 yards onto the Bills (14.6 fantasy points), making him Week 5’s WR7. Not bad for a pass catcher who managed a total — a total — of 11.1 fantasy points over his first three games.
LOSER: Texans RB Woody Marks
During Houston’s Week 5 44-10 beatdown of the Ravens, Texans RB Marks got screwed. As did fantasy managers who inserted him into all four of their team’s fantasy lineups, e.g., this guy.
In Week 4, the rookie racked up 23.9 fantasy points (119 total yards, 2 total TDs), and as a thank you, Texans OC Nick Caley gave him a paltry 7 touches, as opposed to Week 4’s 21.
Woody: Welcome to the waiver wire.
WINNER: Panthers RB Rico Dowdle
If you predicted Carolina RB Rico Dowdle would rush for 206 yards on Sunday, well, you didn’t predict Carolina RB Rico Dowdle would rush for 206 yards on Sunday.
But with Panthers RB1 Chuba Hubbard nursing a bad calf, the former Dallas Cowboy turned his 23 carries and 3 receptions into 29.4 fantasy points, making him Week 5’s overall top fantasy option.
Will Hubbard lose his starting gig? It’s been said time and again that injuries shouldn’t impact depth charts. But let’s pay attention to what Panthers HC Dave Canales has to say on Wednesday before we put that one to bed.
LOSER: Saints RB Alvin Kamara
Here, we have some reality and fantasy issues.
In New Orleans’ near-shocking 26-14 Week 5 win over the New York Giants, Kamara hauled in 4 receptions, giving him 590 for his career, moving him into sixth-place all-time, now ahead of Hall of Famer Marcus Allen.
Thing is, he’s 30-years-old, just around the time running backs begin their downward journey to obsolescence.
That’s reality. Fantasy-wise, he’s in a really, really bad spot.
Over his last three games, the University of Tennessee product has totaled 18.3 fantasy points, while seeing a meh 73% of the snaps. Saints RB2 Kendre Miller’s snap percentage has increased each of the last three weeks (15%, 27%, 31%), so the writing might be on the wall.
As a Bears fan, I’d love to see GM Ryan Poles give Saints GM Mickey Loomis a jingle and offer him a fourth-round pick for the vet.
WINNER: Rams QB Matthew Stafford
Rams QB Matthew Stafford is 107-years-old, but he’s having one of the best statistical seasons of his 76-year professional football life, posting what would be career highs in passer rating (107.3) and QB rating (66.8). He leads the league in passing yards (1,503) and lands second in passing TDs with 11.
Fantasy-wise, he’s the overall QB9, and with Baltimore and their straight-up embarrassing defense on deck for Week 6, it’s not unfair to prognosticate the future Hall of Famer — or at least he should be a future Hall of Famer — could climb in the fantasy standings.
LOSER: Raiders QB Geno Smith
Last season in Seattle, then-Seahawks signal caller Geno Smith was a solid fantasy option, finishing the campaign with a 16.5 fantasy point average, topping 13 fantasy points in all but three of his 17 starts.
This season in Sin City, the 12th-year man has already posted two single-digit fantasy games, and more problematically for the 1-4 Raiders, coughed up 9 interceptions, ahead of only Bengals' mess Jake Browning.
Might we see Las Vegas’ QB2 Kenny Pickett in the starting lineup sooner than later? Fantasy managers stuck in two-QB leagues who have no choice but to start Smith during a bye week most likely hope so.
Like, a lot.
Here in Week 5 of the NFL season, some of your PrizePicks picks won, while others lost — that’s the nature of fantasy sports, of course — but regardless of how it all panned out, you had a ton of fun making your selections, and will continue to do so as the NFL season progresses.
And if you enjoyed our NFL Week 5 fantasy winners and losers, stick with Playbook all season for advice, predictions, and takes.
