Listen, I’ll take the Divisional Round over the Super Bowl. Always.
Wait, what?
Yeah, that’s right, the Divisional Round is arguably the best weekend of football for the entire NFL season. You’ve got the eight best (or hottest) teams playing football. No bajillion-dollar commercials. Nary a 12-hour pregame show to be seen. A little bit of pomp. Not much circumstance.
Just football.
If all goes as expected, the football we see this weekend will be awfully compelling.
- You’ve got a reigning MVP QB staring down a second-year upstart.
- You’ve got two divisional foes facing each other for the third time this season.
- You’ve got one of the two MVP QB candidates staring down a smoking defense.
- And you’ve got a worst-to-first team trying to stop the other MVP QB candidate.
Compelling, compelling, compelling, and compelling.
As if the games themselves aren’t bold enough, let’s make one bold prediction for each team that stayed alive to play in the NFL Divisional Round — predictions that might well inform this weekend’s picks on PrizePicks.
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
NFL Playoffs, Divisional Round: One Bold Prediction for Each Team
Let’s see who might (or might not) do some cool (or not cool) football things in week number two of the NFL Playoffs.
Bills vs. Broncos (Sunday, 1/17, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Bills: WR Khalil Shakir Could Haul In 11 Catches
It could be argued that the reason the Bills haven’t played their way into the Super Bowl is their lack of a true WR1.
And that’s not a bad argument.
Let’s use the 2025 regular season as a test case, a season in which the Bills’ wide receivers room wasn’t what you would call awesome.
- WR1: Khalil Shakir: 72 receptions, 719 yards
- WR2: Keon Coleman: 38 receptions, 404 yards
- WR3: Joshua Palmer: 22 receptions, 303 yards
That’s 1,426 yards. For context, three NFL receivers topped that all by their lonesomes, those being Seattle’s Jaxson Smith-Njigba (1,793), the Rams’ Puka Nacua (1,715), and Dallas’ George Pickens (1,429).
That said, last Sunday, Shakir had himself a game, hauling in all 12 of his targets for 82 yards.
Yeah, yeah, Denver sports the league’s seventh-best passing defense, but a hot receiver is a hot receiver. And Shakir is en fuego.
Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Broncos PrizePicks Projection: 5.5 Receptions
Broncos: QB Bo Nix Might Blow It
Bo Nix is the first of three second-year quarterbacks to start their first playoff game this weekend…and considering there are only eight QBs in action, that says a whole helluva lot about the 2024 NFL Draft.
But here’s the thing: There’ve been 59 Super Bowls, meaning there’ve been 118 opening QB slots — only three of which have been filled by sophomores, those being New England’s Tom Brady (Super Bowl XXXIV), Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger (Super Bowl XL), and Seattle’s Russell Wilson (Super Bowl XLVIII).
Now there’s no way that both Nix and Pats’ second-year stud QB Drake Maye can play their way into the Big Game — same conference, and all — but there’s a fair chance that, since their teams are, respectively, the one- and two-seeds, one of them could be on the Levi’s Stadium turf on February 8.
But there’s also a fair chance that one of these neophytes will fall on his face.
Last week, the Bills D kept Jaguars signal-caller Trevor Lawrence under wraps, holding him to 207 yards and snatching two INTs. If they can do that to a veteran like T-Law — who came into the game riding a massive heater — they can probably do it to the kid.
Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. Bills PrizePicks Projection: 211.5 Passing Yards
49ers vs. Seahawks (Saturday, 1/17, 8:00 p.m. ET, Fox)
49ers: TE Jake Tonges Could Lead the 49ers in Receptions
Regardless of what the stat sheet or logic says, the San Francisco 49ers’ best pass catcher is TE George Kittle. Like, despite missing six games, he compiled the third-most receiving yards on the team (628 yards), topping more than every WR not named Jauan Jennings.
Kittle is on the shelf for the remainder of the playoffs (Achilles), but head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn’t thrown out his offensive playbook, and said playbook is loaded with plays for the tight end, meaning that Tonges could get his shot…or shots.
This season, the three-year man out of California saw 7+ targets on three occasions, the tops being the 11 he racked up on October 2 against Jacksonville.
For as good as Seattle’s defense is, they’re not aces against tight ends, allowing the 22nd-most fantasy points to the position. The math tells us that lots of targets against a team that isn’t what you’d call a brick wall vs. the position could lead to a nice night for Mr. T.
49ers TE Jake Tonges vs. Seahawks PrizePicks Projection: 35.5 Receiving Yards
Seahawks: QB Sam Darnold Might Rack Up Less Than 200 Passing Yards
Let’s keep this one short and sweet:
- This season, Darnold had six games in which he didn’t top 200 passing yards.
- This season, Darnold didn’t hit 200 in either of his games against the Niners.
The math hath spoken.
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold vs. 49ers PrizePicks Projection: 236.5 Passing Yards
Texans vs. Patriots (Sunday, 1/18, 3:00 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC)
Texans: We Might See an Encore From WR Christian Kirk
As of this writing, Houston WR1 Nico Collins (concussion protocol) is doubtful for the Texans’ second playoff appearance in the year.
Bad for Houston. Good for Christian Kirk.
Last week, with Collins missing the majority of the contest, the Texas A&M product snatched up 8 of his 9 targets compiling a career-high 144 yards. In terms of opportunities, this isn’t an outlier: In five of his 13 games played in the 2025 campaign, Texans QB CJ Stroud targeted Kirk 5+ times on four occasions, including a pair of 8-target games in, respectively, Weeks 1 and 4.
No disrespect to the rest of Houston’s WR corps — rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel have come on, as of late — but a smart QB rides the hot hand.
Stroud is smart. Kirk is hot. So there you have it.
Texans WR Christian Kirk vs. Patriots PrizePicks Projection: 40.5 Receiving Yards
Patriots: RB TreVeyon Henderson Could Outgain RB Rhamondre Stevenson…Significantly
My memory isn’t awesome, but I seem to recall Henderson busting out about half a dozen 50+ scampers this season. But things get blurry after seven or eight hours of watching NFL Red Zone, so I could be very, very wrong.
I’m correct in recalling, however, that the Houston Texans have a very, very good run defense — tops in the league by a country mile, actually — so good that they didn’t allow a single 100-yard rusher all season.
I’m not saying Henderson will top 100 yards. But I am saying that Stevenson might not top 40 yards, and if Henderson hits 70, well, that constitutes a significant outgain.
Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. Texans PrizePicks Projection: 38.5 Rushing Yards
Rams vs. Bears (Sunday, 1/11, 6:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)
Rams: RB Kyren Williams Might Be Held Under 50 Rushing Yards
Coming off of his third-consecutive 1,000+ yard season, I think we can all agree that Kyren Williams is a decent NFL running back.
But here’s the thing: He’s not great.
In 2025, he topped 100 rushing yards just once, and couldn’t top 66 on six occasions.
The Bears defense, for all of their faults — and believe you me, it’s a fault-fest on that side of the ball — don’t out-and-out suck against the run. Last week, they held the entire Green Bay rushing battalion to 99 yards, the week prior, the Lions and Jahmyr Gibbs managed just 122 yards, and before that, well, Christian McCaffrey torched them for 140 yards.
But Kyren Williams ain’t Christian McCaffrey, and as of this writing, game-time temperatures at Soldier Field are expected to be around 15 degrees, and last time I checked, the Los Angeles Rams aren’t a cold weather team. So good luck with that, Kyren.
Rams RB Kyren Williams vs. Bears PrizePicks Projection: 61.5 Rushing Yards
Bears: QB Caleb Williams Might Rush for 75 Yards and 1 Touchdown
Caleb Williams has been so bestial over the last month that ESPN already has him in the 2026 MVP conversation, much to the joy of my Bears-loving heart.
His death-defying arm put him in the convo, but it could be his legs that help him bring home the hardware.
Let’s take a trip back to November 9, when Williams scampered for 63 yards in Chicago’s 24-20 win over the Giants. So there’s precedent: The former Heisman winner can run his way to a dub.
As noted, Sunday could be a cray-cray cold one down by Lake Michigan, and there’s a distinct possibility that Bears head coach Ben Johnson could do something he rarely does: Draw up a quarterback rush.
So don’t be at all shocked if the Iceman runneth. And runneth. And runneth some more.
Bears QB Caleb Williams vs. Bears PrizePicks Projection: 19.5 Rushing Yards
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Make Some Bold Wild Card Weekend Picks on PrizePicks
Will any of these postseason boldies come to fruition? Who the heck knows, but one thing we do know is you can win real money on PrizePicks with your NFL predictions.
Just pick More or Less on at least two player projections and potentially win real cash with your picks every week.
And follow Playbook for the entire NFL season, where you'll always enjoy boldness galore.
