The first round of March Madness tips off on March 19, meaning preparation for brackets could begin now. With about three weeks remaining in the regular season, we have a good picture of teams that fit the metrics to win the NCAA Tournament.
Among PrizePicks Team Picks’ list of college basketball futures, which teams stand out as promising picks for NCAA basketball champion futures? Check out our three early March Madness picks, including a sleeper.
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NCAA Basketball Champion Futures: Early March Madness Picks
Michigan, Arizona, Duke, and Houston have created space as the favorites to win a national title. Who else is among the 13 favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks?
- Michigan Wolverines: Yes 4.76x | No 1.14x
- Arizona Wildcats: Yes 5.88x | No 1.11x
- Duke Blue Devils: Yes 6.66x | No 1.08x
- Houston Cougars: Yes 7.69x | No 1.06x
- Florida Gators: Yes 9.09x | No 1.04x
- UConn Huskies: Yes 10x | No 1.03x
- Illinois Fighting Illini: Yes 11.11x | No 1.03x
- Iowa State Cyclones: Yes 14.28x | No 1.02x
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
- Purdue Boilermakers: Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
- Kansas Jayhawks: Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
- Gonzaga Bulldogs: Yes 22.22x
- Nebraska Cornhuskers: Yes 22.22x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
NCAA Basketball Champion Picks
Let’s begin with some of the top contenders to cut the nets.
Michigan Wolverines
The Michigan Wolverines (25-1) have established themselves as college basketball’s top team, ranked first in the AP Top 25. Efficiency metrics urge the same sentiment, with the Wolverines first in Bart Torvik and KenPom.
According to Bart Torvik, Michigan is third in adjusted offensive efficiency and first on defense. It has a 59.0% effective field goal percentage (sixth) while holding opponents to a 43.2% effective field goal percentage (second). It even dominates the possession battle by ranking in the 96th and 89th percentiles of offensive and defensive rebounding percentages.
Guard play may be the Wolverines’ only concern in March, as their top three scorers come from the frontcourt. Plus, Michigan posts 12.2 turnovers per game (34th percentile).
The Wolverines are riding an 11-game winning streak and lead college basketball with a +21.8 average margin. Michigan has been utterly dominant, giving little reason to fade CBB’s best.
Houston Cougars
Unlike Michigan, the Houston Cougars (23-3) have not been among the top teams all season. They’ve recently worked their way up the ranks with a 6-1 record in the last seven games.
However, the Cougs come off a 70-67 loss against No. 6 Iowa State and have upcoming bouts against No. 4 Arizona and No. 8 Kansas. Houston could display its true title potential in the ensuing week.
The Cougars boast elite efficiency, ranked second by Bart Torvik and fourth by KenPom metrics. Coach Kelvin Sampson’s squad dominates the offensive glass and features a stingy defense. Houston ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, limiting opponents to 61.6 points per game (first) and 51.7 shots per matchup (99th percentile).
Houston F Joseph Tugler (4.82) and F Chris Cenac Jr. (3.69) have elite Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
But the Cougs have never won a national championship. What sets this team apart? The offense is one of Sampson’s best yet, sitting fifth in adjusted efficiency.
Guard play is always a big key in the postseason, and Houston G Kingston Flemings (16.6 PPG), G Emanuel Sharp (16.5 PPG), and G Milos Uzan (11.2 PPG) form one of the nation’s best backcourts.
This could be Sampson’s most talented team, as Jeremy Woo of ESPN has Flemings (fifth) and Cenac (15th) in the top 15 of his 2026 NBA Draft Big Board.
NCAA Basketball Sleeper Champion Pick
We’ve focused on the cream of the crop, but the NCAA Tournament always features madness. Who is flying under the radar with favorable stats?
Vanderbilt Commodores
The Vanderbilt Commodores (21-4) have a 33.33x payout to win the NCAA Tournament, but they pass several benchmarks.
Since KenPom began in 2002, every national champion has been top-25 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top-40 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Commodores rank 12th on offense and 19th on defense.
Vandy sports a 56.4% effective field goal percentage (94th percentile) and holds opponents to 47.3% (92nd percentile). It dominates the turnover battle, forcing 13.2 per game (82nd percentile) while recording 9.7 turnovers per contest (93rd percentile).
The Commodores can get hot from 3-point land, too, logging 10.0 makes (92nd percentile) and 27.7 attempts per game (90th percentile). Vanderbilt G Tyler Tanner (18.3 PPG) and G Duke Miles (16.6 PPG) lead a strong backcourt.
Vandy has upcoming quadrant 1 games — defined by a top-30 team at home, a top-50 team in a neutral site, or a top-75 team on the road — against Tennessee and Kentucky.
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Make March Madness Futures Picks on PrizePicks
March Madness could be similar to last season, with a handful of teams separating as clear favorites to win a national championship. Could a sleeper crash the party?
Make your college basketball futures picks on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just go to the PrizePicks app, open Team Picks, make your predictions for the NCAA Tournament, and earn cash if you're right on your pick.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued College Basketball predictions, picks, and news.
