The college basketball regular season goes out with a bang on Sunday, as the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (25-5) visit the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (28-2) in a 4:30 p.m. ET prime-time slot on CBS.
Since January 14, Michigan is 14-1 and is on a current three-game winning streak. Following a 1-3 stretch from January 30 to February 13, Michigan State has rebounded with five consecutive wins.
Let’s make a Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction and highlight PrizePicks player projections for one of the Big Ten’s best rivalries.
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Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Michigan State is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups, but Michigan won January 30’s battle 83-71 as 2.5-point favorites on the road.
In the last 10 games, the Spartans are 4-6 against the spread (ATS), and the Wolverines are 6-4. MSU features an over trend, with an 8-2 record in the past 10 matchups.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Spread, Over/Under
Following January’s 12-point win against Michigan State, the Wolverines are 8.5-point favorites at home on PrizePicks Team Picks.
The in-state rivals sport differing tempos, creating a lengthy debate for today’s 150.5 over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -8.5
- Over/Under: 150.5
- Game Winner Payout: Michigan State 4.54x | Michigan 1.19x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction on Spread
Michigan G L.J. Cason suffered a torn ACL in February 27’s Big Ten-clinching win over Illinois. This was a serious hit to the Wolverines’ backcourt depth, but PrizePicks Team Picks still gives UM the second-lowest payout to win the national championship (4.34x).
Michigan remains one of the nation’s best, but it failed to cover March 5’s 9.5-point spread in a 71-68 win over Iowa. Cason’s 40.2% 3-point percentage could be missed with Michigan State in the sixth percentile of 3-point shot distribution allowed, per Bart Torvik.
As a team, the Wolverines launch 25.6 triples per game (74th percentile) and shoot 36.2% from beyond the arc. UM shot 38.1% on 3-pointers in January’s head-to-head clash.
In line with coach Tom Izzo’s usual mantra, the Spartans attempt only 21.4 treys per game (36th percentile). MSU is in the 95th percentile of dunk shot distribution, but Michigan ranks in the 90th and 98th percentiles for dunk and close-2 shot distributions allowed.
Furthermore, the Wolverines are second in adjusted defensive efficiency, which may pose problems for Michigan State (34th in adjusted offensive efficiency).
Michigan State vs. Michigan for PrizePicks Today: 3/8/26
For PrizePicks college basketball projections, Michigan State F Jaxon Kohler could dominate the glass, and Michigan G Trey McKenney has a promising matchup to stay hot from deep.
Michigan State F Jaxon Kohler vs. Michigan Projection: 9.5 Rebounds
- The Spartans are in the 98th percentile of offensive rebounding percentage, while the Wolverines sit in the 88th percentile of defensive rebounding rate.
- After Michigan State totaled 15 offensive boards in the last collision, Kohler could be a target with his 13.8% offensive rebounding rate (fifth in the Big Ten).
- The senior forward has reached double-digit rebounds in four of his last seven appearances and is averaging 10.0 rebounds per game (RPG) in his last two games.
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Michigan G Trey McKenney vs. Michigan State Projection: 2.5 3-PT Made
- We mentioned Michigan State’s vulnerable 3-point defense, and McKenney is tied for first on Michigan with 4.4 attempted treys per game.
- The freshman from Flint shoots 38.2% from deep, and he’s on a hot streak with a 47.6% 3-point percentage over his last five games.
- In the five-game split, McKenney posted at least 3 made triples in two contests.
- While he posted only 22 minutes in Thursday’s first full game without Cason in the lineup, McKenney's minutes may increase going forward.
Make #8 Michigan State vs. #3 Michigan Picks on PrizePicks
Despite a recent notable injury, Michigan remains a clear championship contender and may be too much for Michigan State. The Spartans could need increased production for players to reach some of their top PrizePicks player projections on Sunday.
Make your Michigan State vs. Michigan picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
