You can almost taste the confetti for Saturday’s college basketball slate, with potential national championship contenders colliding in two top-four matchups. The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (25-1) and No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (24-2) clash in the Washington Wizards’ Capital One Arena, landing in ESPN’s prime-time 6:30 p.m. ET slot.
Duke is 9-1 in its last 10 games, and Michigan looks to add its 12th consecutive win. Both teams boast some of the best stats in college basketball — can the numbers provide an angle for our Michigan vs. Duke prediction?
Let’s dive into the matchup and some PrizePicks player projections, as well as Saturday Team Picks data to consider.
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Michigan vs. Duke Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
As non-conference foes, the programs met in six games from 2007 to 2013. Duke dominated the stretch with a 5-1 record outright and against the spread (ATS). The over also went 4-2 in the split.
Despite a 10-0 record in the last 10 games, Michigan is only 5-5 ATS during that span. The Blue Devils are 6-4 ATS for their past 10, and the under flourished at 8-2 during the split.
Michigan vs. Duke Spread, Over/Under
Saturday has Michigan favored by 2.5 points, paired with a 1.61x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks, putting Duke in the underdog role for the first time this season.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -2.5
- Over/Under: 151.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Michigan 1.61x | Duke 2.17x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Michigan vs. Duke Prediction on Spread
Bart Torvik ranks Michigan fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and first in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Duke is ninth and fourth in the two categories.
Both teams feature elite defenses, but is the 151.5 over/under from PrizePicks Team Picks too low? The Wolverines are in the 97th percentile for adjusted tempo, attempting 61.5 shots per game while allowing 64.5 field goal attempts per contest.
Additionally, Michigan cedes 26.9 3-point shots per game, and Duke allows 26.2 attempted triples per matchup. Both offenses are capable of exposing this flaw, with the Wolverines ranked in the 65th percentile of 3-point shot distribution and the Blue Devils in the 74th percentile.
Michigan shoots 36.1% from deep, and Duke knocks down 34.9% of its 3-point looks. A quick pace, paired with success from beyond the arc, could lead to a healthy point total.
Michigan vs. Duke Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/21/26
Michigan G Trey McKenney and Duke F Cameron Boozer could provide exposure to the 3-point attacks for player projections on PrizePicks.
Michigan G Trey McKenney vs. Duke Projection: 9.5 Points
- Potentially taking advantage of Duke’s suspect perimeter defense, McKenney leads Michigan with 4.4 3-point shots per game, shooting an efficient 37.7% from deep.
- The freshman guard has reached double-digit points in eight of his last nine games, posting 10.5 points per game (PPG).
- McKenney has drained at least 2 triples in six of his past seven appearances, shooting 43.3% from deep during that span.
- Since January 27, McKenney's averaged 7.1 shots and 23.0 minutes, surpassing his season-long marks of 6.7 and 21.0, respectively.
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Duke F Cameron Boozer vs. Michigan Projection: 1.5 3-PT Made
- Boozer (22.8 PPG) shoots 65.1% on 2-pointers, and 73.1% of his field goal attempts are from inside the arc.
- With that said, Michigan is in the 98th and 99th percentiles of dunk and close-2 shot distributions allowed. Plus, Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg may be Boozer’s primary defender, and the senior forward’s 5.46 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) is the top mark in college basketball, per EvanMiya.
- The freshman phenom could look to attack the Wolverines’ vulnerable 3-point defense, and he shoots an efficient 39.4% from beyond the arc.
- Duke’s leading scorer has made 6 of 11 3-point shots (54.5%) in his last four games.
Make #1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke Picks on PrizePicks
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Michigan has the lowest payout to win the national championship (3.84x), and Duke is the second favorite with a 6.66x payout. In a Titanic-sized bout between college basketball’s title favorites, we could be in store for a high-scoring game with plenty of success from 3-point land.
Make your Michigan vs. Duke picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can also make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
