The LSU Tigers (15-16) vs. the Kentucky Wildcats (19-12) begin SEC Tournament play with a 12:30 p.m. ET tip-off on the SEC Network.
As the No. 16 seed in the tournament, LSU finished 3-15 in conference play and holds a 2-8 record in the last 10 games. This is the first time Kentucky has played on Wednesday in the SEC Tournament, signaling its disappointing season.
Below, we’ll break down the first-round SEC clash and make an LSU vs. Kentucky prediction on the spread for PrizePicks Team Picks college basketball projections.
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LSU vs. Kentucky Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – 3/11/26
Kentucky is 7-3 in its last 10 matchups vs. LSU, but the Tigers are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) in the split. The Wildcats won 75-74 as 3.5-point favorites in January 14’s clash.
Despite a 1-6 record in the last seven games, LSU is 4-3 ATS during the span. Plus, the over is 5-1 in the Tigers’ past six matchups. UK sports 5-5 outright and 7-3 ATS records over its past 10 games.
LSU vs. Kentucky State Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Wildcats are 8.5 favorites and carry a 1.25x payout to win on Wednesday. LSU will be an underdog for its 10th consecutive contest, sporting a 4x payout to win.
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats -8.5
- Over/Under: 152.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: LSU 4x | Kentucky 1.25x
Team picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change.
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LSU vs. Kentucky Prediction on Spread
Kentucky C Malachi Moreno’s game-winner lifted the Cats to their regular-season win over LSU. The Tigers were efficient on offense in the narrow loss, shooting 48.9% from the field while making 9-of-19 3-point attempts (47.4%).
LSU shoots 47.0% this season (83rd percentile), and most of that success is thanks to a 54.2% 2-point percentage (77th percentile). Proven by their 33.3% mark from deep (42nd percentile), the Tigers could struggle to replicate 3-point success.
The Wildcats’ interior defense held LSU to only 22 paint points in the previous head-to-head battle. According to Bart Torvik, Kentucky is in the 84th percentile of close-2 shot distribution allowed, and the Tigers sit in the 71st percentile for close-2 shot distribution on offense.
EvanMiya gives Moreno an impressive 3.32 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), and Kentucky F Mouhamed Dioubate’s 3.26 DBPR rounds out the solid frontcourt defense.
On the other side of the court, UK is in the 98th percentile of dunk shot distribution, while the Tigers sit in the 40th percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed. Opponents shoot 35.6% from 3-point land vs. LSU (22nd percentile), and the Cats cash in 34.9% of their looks from deep (64th percentile).
Furthermore, Kentucky carries an impressive 33.4% offensive rebounding rate (88th percentile), and the Tigers rank in the 40th percentile of defensive rebounding rate.
Make LSU vs. Kentucky Picks on PrizePicks
Following January’s thrilling regular-season matchup, is Kentucky in store for a more comfortable win vs. LSU? The Tigers may need more efficient 3-point shooting to stay in the mix vs. the Wildcats on Wednesday, March 11.
Make your LSU vs. Kentucky picks and SEC Tournament predictions at PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
