Game 1 of the second-round Lakers vs. Thunder series is set to tip off on Tuesday, May 5 at 8:30 p.m. ET, with Oklahoma City entering as 16.5-point favorites on the PrizePicks Team Picks spread.
Following a first-round upset of the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles looks to keep the good times rolling. Unfortunately for head coach JJ Redick’s crew, a downright dominant Oklahoma City team awaits, fresh off a four-game sweep of the Phoenix Suns.
Below, we'll break down our Lakers vs. Thunder prediction and picks for Tuesday’s NBA Playoff game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Lakers vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Game 1 – Tuesday, May 5
After winning 50 regular-season games and getting bounced in the opening round a year ago, Redick led the Lakers to a 53-29 record and his first postseason series victory.
Despite being down all-world PG Luka Doncic for the entire set and SG Austin Reaves for most of it, Los Angeles persevered and dispatched the Rockets in six games. Superstar F LeBron James continued to fight off Father Time, routinely pouring in critical performances at home and on the road.
Coming off an NBA Finals win, there was no championship hangover for head coach Mark Daigneault’s Thunder squad. Oklahoma City started the 2025-26 regular season 24-1 and wound up winning 64 games to clinch the top seed in the Western Conference.
The Thunder wasted no time sending the Suns packing, winning the four first-round games by a combined 69 points. PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went for 25+ points in each of the outings.
Oklahoma City is favored heavily heading into the Western Conference semifinals, but Los Angeles may already be playing with house money after it shocked the basketball world once already.
Lakers vs. Thunder Spread, Over/Under for Game 1 – Tuesday, May 5
The Thunder enter Tuesday’s game as 16.5-point favorites against the Lakers, returning a 1.11x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Lakers vs. Thunder game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -16.5 (2x payout)
- Over/Under: 213.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Lakers 5.88x | Thunder 1.11x
Play the Lakers vs. Thunder spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Timeline
Here is the full Lakers vs. Thunder timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.
All-Time: Lakers, 183-132
Regular Season: Thunder, 4-0
Playoffs: Lakers, 26-15 in 41 games
Lakers vs. Thunder Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs
- Game 1: Tuesday, May 5, 8:30 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City
- Game 2: Thursday, May 7, 9:30 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City
- Game 3: Saturday, May 9, 8:30 p.m. ET in Los Angeles
- Game 4: Monday, May 11, 10:30 p.m. ET in Los Angeles
- Games 5-7 if necessary
Lakers vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread for Game 1 – 5/5/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Lakers vs. Thunder prediction on the spread for Tuesday, May 5.
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- Oklahoma City is just 19-23 against the spread as home favorites this season, the ninth-worst record in the sport. L.A. is a solid 11-11 ATS as road underdogs.
- The Lakers’ offense is as efficient as they come scoring-wise, boasting basketball’s top field goal percentage (50.1%) and 2-point percentage (59.0%).
- Defensively, Los Angeles cedes the 20th-ranked allowance by points per shot (1.160) but is fifth against the 3-point shot (34.9%).
- If there’s one weakness the Thunder have on offense, it’s scoring in fastbreak opportunities. They’re 20th at 13.9 PPG there, and the Lakers’ defense is 12th, allowing 14.8 PPG.
- On the other end of the court, OKC can be susceptible to the 3-ball (36.7%, 23rd). The Lakers can 36.1% of their tries from deep, good for 13th.
Lakers vs. Thunder Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/5/26
Here are three top Lakers vs. Thunder picks to target for Tuesday, May 5 on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include SG Austin Reaves, F LeBron James, and PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Lakers SG Austin Reaves vs. Thunder Projection: 26.5 Pts + Asts
- In 51 regular-season games, Reaves produced 28.8 combined points and assists each night. In two playoff outings, that number is 22.5.
- Don’t necessarily let that slow reintroduction after injury scare you. Per databallr, in minutes without Doncic (hamstring) in the lineup, Reaves’ usage rate spikes by 13.1%.
- Reaves made just 16.7% of his 3-pointers in two games against the Rockets, which is out of character for him. He made 36.0% of his 3-balls this regular season and is a 36.4% shooter from deep for his postseason career.
- AR’s teammates get exquisite looks on his passes, logging a 97th-percentile shot quality on his assist chances.
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Lakers F LeBron James vs. Thunder Projection: 35 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- During the regular season, James’ PRA average was 34.2. In the first round vs. Houston, it increased to 38.7.
- James was downright automatic near the basket in round one, making a playoff career-best 85.7% of shots from 0-3 feet.
- Per NBA Advanced Stats, among all NBA Playoff performers averaging 7+ boards, James’ contested rebound share of 65.2% is fourth.
- In Games 1-4 without Reaves, The King owned usage and assist rates of 30.1% and 39.1%, respectively. In Games 5 and 6 with Reaves back, those figures were 34.0% and 42.6%.
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Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Lakers Projection: 31.5 Points
- The reigning league MVP put up 31.1 PPG during the regular season and leads all postseason players with a ledger of 33.8.
- No player is recording more 2-point makes on average than Gilgeous-Alexander’s 9.5 thus far in the playoffs.
- SGA’s true shot attempts per 100 (34.6) and relative true shooting percentage (+8.8%) are each in the 100th percentile in the NBA Playoffs.
- Via NBA RAPM, Gilgeous-Alexander is producing 1.57 points per possession as the ball handler this postseason, good for 23.3 points over expectation.
Add Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Lakers vs. Thunder on PrizePicks for Game 1
Here are some angles to target for your Lakers vs. Thunder live picks.
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- Whoever wins the strength-on-strength battle in the opening frame could set the tone in this one. The Lakers are sixth in first-quarter scoring at 30.3 PPG, but the Thunder allow the fewest PPG (26.6) right out of the gate.
- Scoring could be at a premium after halftime. Per NBA Advanced Stats, Oklahoma City (103.6) and Los Angeles (106.5) are fourth and sixth, respectively, in second-half defensive rating this postseason.
- The Thunder are a middle-of-the-pack tempo team this NBA Playoffs, ranking eighth at 96.75. The Lakers are tied for dead last at 92.40, operating at a slow rhythm.
- Gilgeous-Alexander has been one of the game’s premier playoff performers in the last three years. In 37 games, he’s averaged 30.4 PPG on 48.0% shooting to go with 5.7 RPG and 6.6 APG.
- Coming off a 5-for-7 showing on treys in Game 6 against the Rockets, Lakers F Rui Hachimura remains the most accurate 3-point shooter (50.8%) in the history of the NBA Playoffs.
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Not many are expecting the Lakers to pull off a second-round series win against the Thunder, but they’ve already thrived in a spot like this before. Can Los Angeles send a serious message with a Tuesday victory, or will Oklahoma City remain undefeated this postseason?
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