The second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday, March 22, features three 2-7 matchups, and two of those have point spreads under five points on PrizePicks Team Picks.
No. 7 Kentucky (22-13) vs. No. 2 Iowa State (28-7) could be one of the tightest games of the day, with the Cyclones favored by 4.5 points for the 2:45 p.m. ET tip-off on CBS.
Below, let’s break down our Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction, capped by CBB picks for PrizePicks player projections.
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Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Kentucky survived one of the most entertaining NCAA Tournament games in recent memory vs. No. 10 Santa Clara. Following a buzzer-beating prayer from Kentucky G Otega Oweh, the Wildcats won 89-84 in overtime.
The Cats are now 3-1 outright and against the spread (ATS) over the last four games.
While the Cyclones rolled in a 108-74 win and cover as 24.5-point favorites vs. No. 15 Tennessee State in the first round, Iowa State F Joshua Jefferson played for only 3 minutes before sustaining a significant ankle injury.
Jefferson’s latest injury update looks doubtful for Sunday. His 16.4 points per game (PPG) is second on the team, and he leads with 7.4 rebounds per game (RPG). EvanMiya tabs Jefferson as the sixth-most efficient player in the nation with an eye-popping 10.41 Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR).
The Cyclones have covered five consecutive point spreads, but can they overcome a potentially significant absence?
Kentucky vs. Iowa State Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Iowa State is a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Will Kentucky pull off an upset, returning a 2.85x payout if it wins?
The over/under is also 146.5 points on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones -4.5
- Over/Under: 146.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Kentucky 2.85x | Iowa State 1.42x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/22/26
Iowa State has an elite defense that’s sixth in Bart Torvik’s efficiency metric. The Cyclones are not afraid to play at a slow pace, ranked in the 53rd percentile for the slowest adjusted tempo.
Additionally, ISU gives up only 55.1 shots per game (86th percentile). If Jefferson is out, the Cyclones could look to slow the tempo — especially when Kentucky is in the 64th percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos.
The Wildcats sit in the 98th percentile for dunk shot distribution and log 8.1 made triples per game (61st percentile). Opponents total a 9.5% dunk shot distribution (fifth percentile) and a 42.4% shot distribution from beyond the arc (23rd percentile) vs. Iowa State.
Jefferson leads the Cyclones with an elite 4.70 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), and Kentucky is most efficient around the rim with a 54.6% 2-point percentage (81st percentile).
The glass could be another issue for ISU, as it totals only 22.3 defensive rebounds per game (49th percentile). Jefferson's 7.4 RPG leads the team, and the Wildcats are excellent at gathering second-chance points thanks to a 32.2% offensive rebounding rate (82nd percentile).
Between a slow pace and potential advantages for Kentucky, this one could go down to the wire.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/22/26
Here are top Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks to target for Sunday, March 22, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks are headlined by Kentucky G Collin Chandler and Iowa State F Blake Buchanan.
Kentucky G Collin Chandler vs. Iowa State Projection: 8.5 Points
- Overshadowed by Oweh’s monster 35-point performance in the first round, Chandler posted only 5 points while making 1-of-9 3-point shots (11.1%) vs. Santa Clara.
- The sophomore guard has been one of the SEC’s top 3-point threats, shooting 41.0% from deep.
- He’s made only 6-of-28 triples (21.4%) over his last six games. Chandler’s maintained a healthy volume with 4.7 attempted treys per game in the split, compared to 4.9 on the season.
- Positive regression could be inevitable, and Iowa State surrenders a high 3-point shot distribution and 23.4 attempted triples per game (46th percentile).
- Chandler averaged 33.6 minutes per game in his last eight contests, surpassing 27.0 minutes per contest on the season.
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Iowa State F Blake Buchanan vs. Kentucky Projection: 9.5 Points
- Jefferson has not missed a full game this season, but he played for only 3 minutes in the first round.
- Buchanan elevated his production with 11 points compared to his 8.5 PPG average in the first-round victory.
- He could become the Cyclones main inside scoring threat, as the junior forward has attempted only 1 3-pointer on the season while shooting a team-best 64.4% on 2-pointers.
- Kentucky has a tendency to allow easy looks around the rim, ranking in the seventh percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed.
- Backed by 11.3 PPG over his last four games, Buchanan could rise to the occasion on Sunday.
Make Kentucky vs. Iowa State Picks on PrizePicks
Will Kentucky play spoiler with one of Iowa State’s best players likely on the bench? Iowa State F Milan Momcilovic (17.1 PPG) provides the Cyclones with a trustworthy piece, but will it be enough to advance to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament?
You can make your Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
