First place in the SEC is on the line between the No. 25 Kentucky Wildcats (17-7) and the No. 14 Florida Gators (18-6) on Saturday at 3:00 p.m. ET. Florida (9-2) leads the conference standings but sits only one game ahead of Kentucky (8-3).
Both teams roll in on hot streaks, with the Wildcats 8-1 in their last nine games and the Gators 9-1 over their previous 10. What may we expect from the finale of ABC’s Saturday doubleheader?
Below, we’ll circle a Kentucky vs. Florida prediction and picks for PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks. Predict More or Less on projected player stats and earn real money if you're right, or make picks on winners, over/unders, spreads, and more.
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Kentucky vs. Florida Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Kentucky dominated the last 10 head-to-head matchups, going 8-2 and 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS). High-scoring duels are a theme, with the total going over in five consecutive collisions.
The Cats are only 5-5 ATS in the last 10 games, behind Florida’s 9-1 mark in the split. The Gators’ totals have gone under in five straight matchups.
Kentucky vs. Florida Over/Under, Spread
After defeating two top-25 opponents in its last three games, Kentucky is still a notable 14.5-point underdog on Saturday. Led by a 10-1 home record, Florida features a 1.09x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Florida Gators -14.5
- Over/Under: 152.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Kentucky 6.25x | Florida 1.09x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Kentucky vs. Florida Prediction on Spread
While Florida’s 18-6 record is only one game ahead of Kentucky, Bart Torvik ranks the Gators fourth and the Cats 39th in its efficiency metric. Florida is playing like one of college basketball’s best, boasting a +17.8 average margin in the last 10 games.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, are still short-handed with Kentucky C Jayden Quaintance (knee) and F Kam Williams (foot) out due to injuries. UK’s offense has been sloppy at times, ranked 46th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The unit is in the 98th percentile of dunk shot distribution and the 50th percentile for 3-pointers.
Florida ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency, limiting opponents to a 46.0% effective field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Gators are in the 78th percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed, and EvanMiya gives Florida C Rueben Chinyelu (5.16) and F Alex Condon (4.29) elite Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR).
On the other end of the court, UF is in the 99th percentile of dunk shot distribution and 95th percentile for close 2s. Florida F Thomas Haugh (6’9”), Condon (6’11”), and Chinyelu (6’10”) have a clear height advantage against Kentucky G Otega Oweh (6’4”), F Mouhamed Dioubate (6’7”), and C Malachi Moreno (7’0”).
Additionally, the Gators are in the 99th percentile for offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. With Quaintance still out of the lineup, Kentucky’s frontcourt may simply be outmatched on Saturday afternoon.
Kentucky vs. Florida Picks for PrizePicks: Saturday, February 14
Big Blue could lean on their top 3-point specialist, Kentucky G Collin Chandler. Plus, Florida F Thomas Haugh may enjoy a height advantage for player projections on PrizePicks.
Kentucky G Collin Chandler vs. Florida Projection: 1.5 3-PT Made
- Florida G Xaivian Lee (3.06) has the lowest DBPR in the starting lineup and could be Chandler’s primary defender.
- The Wildcats may increase their 3-point volume to avoid the Gators’ elite interior defense; the sophomore guard leads the team with 4.6 trey attempts per game and a 40.9% mark from deep.
- Chandler has made at least 2 triples in seven of his last eight games, shooting 45.2% from beyond the arc in the split.
- Florida ranks in the 73rd percentile of 3-point percentage allowed (32.4%), compared to the 98th percentile against 2-pointers (44.6%).
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Florida F Thomas Haugh vs. Kentucky Projection: 17.5 Points
- Haugh could be in store for mismatches all game, as Oweh (6’4”) and Kentucky F Trent Noah (6’5”) are potential primary defenders. The first-round NBA prospect has a 6’11” wingspan, adding fuel to that possibility.
- Kentucky is in the 12th percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed, and the Gators’ leading scorer touts a 57.1% 2-point percentage.
- Over the last five games, the junior forward faced four defenses 299th or worse in dunk shot distribution allowed. He totaled 19.5 PPG in the split. Kentucky fits the narrative, ranked 322nd in the category.
Make #25 Kentucky vs. #14 Florida Picks on PrizePicks
The Gators’ height forms a unique challenge, sporting an aggressive paint attack and elite rim protection. Quaintance may have given the Cats a better shake, as he’s 18th on the 2026 NBA Draft Big Board via Jeremy Woo of ESPN. Without one of college basketball’s best frontcourt defenders, Kentucky might simply lack the tools to keep pace.
Make your Kentucky vs. Florida picks at PrizePicks. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can also make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
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