Four teams collide in an NCAA Tournament doubleheader for spots in Monday’s college basketball national championship. Today’s Round of 4 lineup begins with No. 3 seed Illinois (28-8) vs. No. 2 seed UConn (33-5) at 6:09 p.m. ET, televised by TBS, truTV, and HBO Max.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Fighting Illini are a 2.5-point favorite for the point spread. Illinois has dominated with an average margin of +19.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. Who could step up for the Huskies in the underdog role?
Let’s dive into stats for Illinois vs. UConn player picks and highlight projections for the NCAA Tournament on PrizePicks.
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Illinois vs. UConn Picks, Stats for NCAA Tournament Round of 4
According to Bart Torvik, the nation’s top two teams in efficiency will collide in the second Round of 4 matchup between Michigan and Arizona. UConn (ninth) and Illinois (sixth) are a step below in efficiency.
The Huskies rank 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini feature a similar mark for adjusted defensive efficiency (20th), but they boast an elite offense that’s second in adjusted efficiency.
Despite Illinois logging 83.8 points per game (94th percentile), it’s averaged only 70.7 PPG in the last three games. Bart Torvik has the Illini in the 79th percentile for the slowest adjusted tempos, while UConn ranks in the 87th percentile.
This likely shifts the over/under, as PrizePicks Team Picks has the total at only 139.5. However, Illinois-UConn still has its fair share of stars, including NBA prospects.
Who could rise to the occasion with favorable matchups for Illinois vs. UConn player picks?
Illinois vs. UConn Player Picks for PrizePicks Today: 4/4/26
Here are the top Illinois vs. UConn player picks to target for Saturday, April 4, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks are headlined by Illinois F David Mirkovic, Illinois G Keaton Wagler, and UConn F Alex Karaban.
Illinois F David Mirkovic vs. UConn Projection: 22 Pts + Rebs
- UConn F Alex Karaban was a liability on defense at times vs. Duke in the Round of 8.
- EvanMiya gives the senior forward a 2.58 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), compared to UConn C Tarris Reed’s 4.80 and G Silas Demary’s 3.47.
- That could mean a favorable matchup for Illinois F David Mirkovic, whose 13.5 PPG ranks third on the Illini.
- He weighs 255 pounds, compared to Karaban’s 230-pound frame, providing the opportunity to play bully ball.
- Plus, UConn ranks in the 40th percentile of close-2 shot distribution allowed, and Mirkovic shoots 56.7% on 2-pointers.
- Furthermore, the freshman forward has snagged double-digit rebounds in three of four NCAA Tournament outings, leading to 11.0 rebounds per game (RPG) in the four-game split.
- Backed by 14.8 PPG and 11.0 RPG in the NCAA Tournament, Mirkovic could have a busy Saturday ahead.
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Illinois G Keaton Wagler vs. UConn Projection: 17.5 Points
- As perhaps the most talented player remaining in the NCAA Tournament, Illinois G Keaton Wagler leads his team with 17.9 PPG and comes off 25 points in the regional finals.
- UConn is giving up only 5.9 3-pointers per game (96th percentile), perhaps limiting Wagler’s 44.0% 3-point percentage in the NCAA Tournament.
- Plus, Husky G Silas Demary Jr. (3.47 DBPR) is a strong defender in Connecticut’s backcourt.
- Demary’s rangy 6’4” frame could be enough to frustrate Wagler, who stands at 6’6”.
- Before the Round of 8, Wagler recorded only 15.0 PPG while shooting 42.1% from the field in his first three NCAA Tournament games.
UConn F Alex Karaban vs. Illinois Projection: 12.5 Points
- Illinois allows 8.4 made treys (24th percentile) and 27.2 3-point shots per game (seventh percentile).
- UConn F Alex Karaban ranks third on his team with 5.0 attempted triples per game.
- While he comes off a rough 1-of-6 shooting performance from deep, Karaban cashed in 44.0% of his 3-pointers in the first three NCAA Tournament games.
- Despite a 5-point outing vs. Duke, the senior forward has still recorded 17.8 PPG in the NCAA Tournament.
- With 3.0 made triples per game while shooting 38.7% from beyond the arc over his last four games, Karaban could be primed for another clutch performance under the bright lights.
Make Illinois vs. UConn Picks on PrizePicks
Illinois’ star freshman duo of Wagler and Mirkovic could make another notable impact for today’s Round of 4 battle. Meanwhile, UConn may lean on the veteran presence of Karaban. Will the Fighting Illini’s talent carry the day, or will the Huskies’ championship DNA reign supreme?
You can make your Illinois vs. UConn picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
