The first round of the NCAA Tournament gets underway on Thursday, March 19, with No. 2 seed Houston (28-6) taking on No. 15 seed Idaho (21-14). After a second-place regular-season finish in the Big 12, the Cougars will aim for a return trip to the national semifinals as 22.5-point favorites on Thursday, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Let’s take a closer look at our Idaho vs. Houston prediction on the spread for this NCAA Tournament first-round showdown in Oklahoma City, tipping off at 10:10 p.m. ET on truTV.
Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks in the NCAA Tournament and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Idaho vs. Houston Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Cougars were just a few points away from potentially winning a national championship last season as they fell to Florida in a 65-63 decision in the 2025 NCAA Tournament title game. Despite experiencing some late-season struggles in 2025-26, Houston won five of its last six games before falling to Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament final.
Idaho finished in seventh place in the Big Sky regular season standings but ran the table in the Big Sky Tournament to earn an automatic NCAA Tournament bid. The Vandals won seven of their last eight games coming into their matchup against the Cougars.
Houston and Idaho have met only once, with the Cougars winning 76-61 in a 1963 meeting between the programs.
Idaho vs. Houston Spread, Over/Under
The Cougars enter this matchup as 22.5-point favorites, returning a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if Houston covers the spread.
Meanwhile, Idaho is an underdog with a 2.08x payout if the Vandals cover the spread, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Houston Cougars -22.5 (1.72x payout)
- Over/Under: 136.5 (1.78x payout)
- Game Winner Payout: Idaho 22.22x | Houston N/A
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
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Idaho vs. Houston Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/19/26
Here are some key stats to know before locking in your Idaho vs. Houston prediction against the spread for the NCAA Tournament first-round matchup on Thursday, March 19, on PrizePicks.
- Houston has a 15-16 against-the-spread record as a favorite, producing a 48.4% cover rate.
- The Cougars are 4-4 ATS in games where they are favored by 20+ points this season.
- Idaho is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games, including a 5-0 ATS mark over its last five contests.
- However, the Vandals were 3-7 ATS as an underdog throughout the 2025-26 season.
- The Cougars allow 62.9 PPG this season, ranking second in the nation behind only Northern Iowa (61.3).
- According to Bart Torvik, Houston has recorded an adjusted offensive efficiency of 125.3 this season (12th in the nation).
- Per KenPom, Idaho’s strength of schedule is ranked 196th in the country with a net rating of -1.75. The Vandals didn’t face any Quad 1 schools while going 0-3 in Quad 2 opportunities.
- Idaho shoots 44.8% from the field this season, ranking ninth in the Big Sky. Meanwhile, Houston held its opponents to a 40.0% shooting percentage on the season (third in the Big 12).
- The Cougars force 13.7 turnovers per contest, leading the Big 12 in that category. On the other hand, Idaho coughs the ball up 10.6 times per game on the year (fourth-fewest in the Big Sky).
- Houston G Kingston Flemings, one of the more popular players in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, leads Houston in points (16.4), assists (5.3), and steals (1.6) per game this season. Over his last five games, Flemings is shooting 46.7% (7-of-15) from three.
Make Idaho vs. Houston Picks on PrizePicks
Houston was just a few points away from potentially winning the NCAA Tournament one season ago. Now the Cougars will have a chance to exorcise those demons as they begin their pursuit of a run towards a national title on Thursday. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Houston has the fifth-shortest payout to win the college basketball national championship (11.11x).
You can make your Idaho vs. Houston picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Check out the Playbook throughout the 2026 NCAA Tournament for more college basketball predictions, picks, and news every day.
