Fans are likely to pack the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC, to the brim on Saturday evening, when Duke and North Carolina add to their historic rivalry.
The two ACC foes take the hardwood at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN. With both sides separated by just a few games in conference play, the weekend matchup could deliver fireworks.
Below, we’ll break down our Duke vs. North Carolina prediction and picks for Saturday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Last season, Duke peaked at first overall in the AP poll and went on a 35-4 tear overall, including a 19-1 conference record. They’re pacing for yet another amazing season under head coach Jon Scheyer, sitting 21-1 (10-0 in ACC play) thus far.
North Carolina, meanwhile, went just 23-14 under Hubert Davis in 2024-25, their most losses since a 14-19 effort with Roy Williams leading them in 2019-20. They’ve responded by starting this year 18-4 and have won four straight, but a 6-3 conference record has them 3.5 games behind Duke.
UNC owns the historical series advantage with an 85-69 record dating back to 1965. That includes a 4-6 mark in the last 10, however, fueled by three consecutive Blue Devils triumphs.
Duke vs. North Carolina Over/Under, Spread
Duke enters Saturday’s game as 5.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.38x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
North Carolina is a home underdog with a 2.77x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils -5.5
- Over/Under: 150.5
- Game Winner Payout: Blue Devils 1.38x | Tar Heels 2.77x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Duke vs. North Carolina prediction on Saturday, February 7.
- Duke is an impressive 5-1 against the spread as road favorites. North Carolina hasn’t been a home underdog all season long.
- The Blue Devils sit fifth in average scoring margin (+20.5 PPG), largely thanks to the fourth-best 2-point efficiency (62.8%) in the nation.
- On the defensive end, Duke limits opponents to just 63.6 PPG, good for sixth.
- North Carolina’s offense ranks 146th in 3-point percentage (34.4), which is a bad combination when paired with a 68.4% free throw mark that’s 305th.
- Foes hoist just 63.8 shots per game against the Tar Heels, 350th among all Division I programs this year.
Duke vs. North Carolina Picks for PrizePicks Today: Saturday, February 7
Here are three top Duke vs. North Carolina picks to target for Saturday, February 7 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by F Cameron Boozer, C Henri Veesaar, and F Caleb Wilson.
Duke F Cameron Boozer vs. North Carolina Projection: 38.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- On the year, Boozer averages 37.2 combined points, rebounds, and assists. That number remains the exact same in conference play so far.
- Among all players pouring in at least 20 PPG, Boozer’s 58.3 field goal percentage is the highest.
- UNC ranks outside the top 100 in average rebounds (33.7, 107th) and assists (12.7, 106th) given up to other teams.
- According to KemPom, the projected top-three NBA Draft selection has helped power Duke to the fifth-highest offensive rating (126.5) in the country.
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North Carolina C Henri Veesaar vs. Duke Projection: 23.5 Pts + Rebs
- In his senior campaign, Veesaar brings home 25.8 points and rebounds on a nightly basis. That figure is down a tick to 25.5 in ACC play.
- Per Bart Torvik, of players logging 75% or more of their team’s minutes, the big man’s 22.0% usage rate is 245th.
- After posting a 12.2% offensive rebounding clip at Arizona last season, Veesaar’s ledger has dropped to 9.1% in 2025-26.
- Duke’s defense surrenders the 13th-fewest rebounds on average (30.1) and is 17th in 2-point percentage (45.6), which could be roadblocks.
North Carolina F Caleb Wilson vs. Duke Projection: 18 Points
- A true freshman, Wilson produces an even 20.0 PPG for the Tar Heels. That's held true in ACC bouts, even increasing a bit to 20.7.
- Although he takes just 1.1 3-pointers a night and makes an ugly 25% of them, Wilson maintains a healthy 62.6% true shooting mark.
- Out of 26 players to match his usage rate and minutes share, Wilson trails only Boozer in both offensive rating and 2-point percentage.
- In that same group, Wilson owns a shiny .621 free throw rate, yet another positive indicator of his offensive impact as a projected top-five pick.
Make #4 Duke vs. #14 North Carolina Picks on PrizePicks
Duke vs. North Carolina picks are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the daily college basketball action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
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