In the first Sunday action since the All-Star break, there are plenty of NBA matchups for fans to follow. An interconference bout between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder sees the East and West collide.
The Sunday afternoon clash (1:00 p.m. on ABC) features some star power, although one side is missing multiple key contributors. Could that impact player projections and team outcomes at the Paycom Center in OKC?
Below, we’ll break down our Cavaliers vs. Thunder prediction and picks for Sunday’s game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
Statistical rankings used in this article are accurate entering Saturday’s play.
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Cavaliers vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
A season ago, the Cavaliers won a staggering 64 games but fell victim to injuries and underperformance in the playoffs. Since an ugly 22-19 start to this year, however, Cleveland is 14-2 and is a new-look squad following the NBA trade deadline.
The Thunder, meanwhile, are coming off an NBA Finals championship and maintain the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They’re 6-4 in their last 10 games, seeing several important pieces go down as of late.
Sunday marks the 127th all-time regular-season meeting between the Cavaliers and Thunder. Oklahoma City owns a 73-53 series advantage, including back-to-back wins since January of 2025.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Spread, Over/Under
The Cavaliers enter Sunday’s game as 1.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Thunder are home underdogs with a 2x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5
- Over/Under: 223.5
- Game Winner Payout: Cavaliers 1.72x | Thunder 2x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Cavaliers vs. Thunder injury report for Sunday, February 22, via NBA.com.
Cleveland Cavaliers Injury Report
- SF Max Strus (foot): OUT
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
- SG Alex Caruso (ankle): OUT
- PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal): OUT
- SG Ajay Mitchell (abdominal): OUT
- SG-SF Jalen Williams (hamstring): OUT
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Cavaliers vs. Thunder prediction on Sunday, February 22.
- There isn’t a ton to discern regarding home/away splits here. Cleveland is just 6-11 against the spread as a road favorite, and OKC hasn’t been a home underdog all year long.
- Only one team scores more points on a nightly basis than the Cavaliers, who check in at 119.8. They’re also sixth in effective field goal percentage (55.7).
- On the other end of the court, Cleveland sits sixth in paint scoring (45.5 PPG), seventh in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.699), and eighth in shooting percentage (46.0).
- Oklahoma City boasts the league’s top average scoring margin (+11.8 points), but their scoring production is down 5.3 points without Gilgeous-Alexander.
- The Thunder’s defense must be respected, as it leads the league in points (107.6 PPG), fastbreak prevention (11.7 PPG), paint protection (40.7 PPG), and eFG% (51.5).
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/22/26
Here are three top Cavaliers vs. Thunder picks to target for Sunday, February 22 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by SG Donovan Mitchell, PG James Harden, and C-PF Chet Holmgren.
Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell vs. Thunder Projection: 25.5 Points
- On the year, Mitchell averages a career-high 28.8 points per game. Since Harden came over via trade, that number is up to 29.2 in five contests.
- Mitchell is one of basketball’s most prolific 3-point shooters, jacking up 9.5 of them every night and canning 37.6% of them.
- Despite taking more shots than ever (23.4 per game), Mitchell’s 61.8% true shooting mark tops 2022 (61.4) as the best of his NBA tenure.
- An underrated improvement Spida has made is his midrange efficiency. He’s made 53.0% of his looks from 10-16 feet, just the second time he’s ever topped 50%.
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Cavaliers PG James Harden vs. Thunder Projection: 28.5 Pts + Asts
- In 49 games this season, Harden produces 32.9 points and assists per night. In five outings as a Cavalier, that figure is 27.0, albeit in 31.6 minutes on average.
- The Beard’s 37.4% assist clip is his highest since 2022. His 30.4% usage rate hasn’t been topped since his days with the Houston Rockets in 2019-20.
- Per NBARAPM, Harden takes 28.5 shots per 100 possessions, putting him in the 97th percentile.
- Harden pours in 27.4 assist points per 100 and 11.6 assists per 100.
Thunder C-PF Chet Holmgren vs. Cavaliers Projection: 27.5 Pts + Rebs
- In his first All-Star campaign, Holmgren averages 26.1 points and rebounds. In the month of February, that’s down to 23.8.
- Per databallr, in minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren’s rebounding remains the same and his points per 75 decline by 0.4.
- Holmgren snags just 5.2% of his own misses, sitting in the 26th percentile.
- The Cavaliers own a 72.7% opponent defensive rebounding clip allowed, ranking eighth-lowest in the sport.
Make Cavaliers vs. Thunder Picks on PrizePicks
Cavaliers vs. Thunder picks aren’t the only avenue hoops fans have to getting in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued NBA predictions, picks, and news.
