The New England Patriots (15-3) host the Houston Texans (13-5) in the Divisional Round, kicking off on Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN on Sunday. While the Patriots boast a 7-3 record at home, the Texans are red-hot with a 10-game winning streak.
If Houston is to pull off the upset, the offense led by QB C.J. Stroud will need to find success. Stroud is without his top target due to injury, putting his production in question.
Ahead of Sunday's kickoff, let’s look at C.J. Stroud’s stats and a pick on his Divisional Round PrizePicks projections vs. the Patriots.
The NFL playoffs are here — pick your champion with PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks.
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
C.J. Stroud Stats, Pick vs. Patriots in Divisional Round
In our Nico Collins injury update, the Houston WR seemed unlikely to play. After missing his third practice of the week on Friday, he was officially ruled out.
He led Houston by reaching 1,117 receiving yards in the regular season, with Texans WR Jayden Higgins’ 525 receiving yards finishing second. Collins does most of the heavy lifting for this passing attack, leading to a ton of concern for Sunday’s matchup.
Will Stroud still find a way to lead Houston to a win?
Texans QB C.J. Stroud Projection vs. Patriots: 207.5 Passing Yards
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Texans are 3.5-point underdogs for Sunday. Collins’ injury is certainly a part of the equation, but Houston still has the tools to find success through the air.
In Week 8 — Collins’ only full absence of the season — Stroud had one of his best performances by completing 30 of 39 passes for 318 passing yards and 2 passing TDs.
Last week, the Texans’ top WR recorded a 55.9% snap share, compared to his 76.9% mark from the regular season. Stroud still found an angle to success by recording 250 passing yards and 7.8 yards per attempt.
During the regular season, the Ohio State product averaged 217.2 passing yards. Excluding Week 18's abbreviated showing, Stroud increased his per-game ledger to 236.7 passing yards since returning from injury in Week 13.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Patriots feature man coverage at the ninth-highest rate. PlayerProfiler ranks the Texans’ QB 16th in completion percentage against man coverage compared to 22nd when facing zone.
New England yields only 6.6 yards per passing attempt (eighth), but it gives up -0.06 EPA per dropback (11th), via Sumer Sports. Weak offensive line play has limited Stroud’s production at times, as the unit ranks 30th in ESPN’s pass block win rate. However, the Pats sit 17th in sack rate and 19th in pass rush win rate.
If Stroud is given time in the pocket, his 207.5 passing yard projection could be within reach.
More C.J. Stroud Projections vs. Patriots Today
Here are some additional top C.J. Stroud projections vs. the Patriots for the Divisional Round, courtesy of PrizePicks.
- 31.5 Pass Attempts
- 20.5 Pass Completions
- 32.5 Yards on Longest Completion
- 10.5 Rush Yards
- 3.5 Rush Attempts
- 226.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- And More
NFL Divisional Round PrizePicks Promo: CJ Stroud - 0.5 Yards
Think C.J. Stroud will throw for at least one yard against the Patriots? That's all he needs on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks is offering a Max Discount on Texans QB C.J. Stroud — lowering his projection to 0.5 passing yards.
This means if Stroud throws for one yard vs. the Patriots, he'll cash the More on this Max Discount. You'll only need to get one more pick right to cash in on the Divisional Round this weekend.
Don't have a PrizePicks account yet? No problem — you can get $50 just for signing up. Make your account now and use Promo Code PLAYBOOK at sign up to get $50 in Bonus Lineups instantly after your first $5 Lineup.
How to Use the C.J. Stroud Max Discount: NFL Divisional Round Promo
- Go to the PrizePicks app.
- Find the C.J. Stroud Max Discount (0.5 Pass Yards) on the Explore Tab or NFL tab.
- Add the Stroud pick to your Lineup and make at least one other pick (must have at least two players).
- Submit your Lineup!
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Make Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round Picks on PrizePicks
Can Stroud repeat his success without Collins in the lineup? In the Wild Card Round, the Texans’ QB did enough to help propel Houston to a 30-6 win. Will one of the NFL’s hottest teams pull off the upset in the Divisional Round?
You can make Texans vs. Patriots picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
Keep it locked in here with the Playbook for NFL picks, predictions, and news every day.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
