The 2026 NCAA Tournament will continue on Friday, and basketball fans will be looking to see which teams could pull off upsets in their respective matchups.
Below, we’ll dive into why Santa Clara vs. Kentucky and Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee are two potential upset picks for Friday’s early window of NCAA Tournament games.
In 2025, all four No. 1 seeds reached the national semifinals to battle for college basketball’s ultimate prize. Will any long shots battle for the national championship in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, or will we see plenty of chalk once again?
Make your NCAA Tournament picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on upsets, spreads, and totals!
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Santa Clara vs. Kentucky: NCAA Tournament Upset Pick, Spread, Over/Under
Time: 12:15 p.m. ET | TV: CBS
Despite finishing in third place in the WCC, Santa Clara has put together a strong campaign, with a pair of Quad 1 wins vs. Saint Mary’s — a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This is also a group that beat another NCAA Tournament team in McNeese back in November.
The Broncos produced a 26-8 overall record, including a 15-3 mark within the WCC. It doesn’t hurt this team has an abundance of experience on the sideline in the form of veteran head coach Herb Sendek, who has led Santa Clara to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996.
Meanwhile, Kentucky has been eliminated in the first round in two of its last four NCAA Tournament appearances. That certainly leaves the door open for a battle-tested Santa Clara squad to potentially pull off the upset.
Santa Clara vs. Kentucky Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
Santa Clara enters Friday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as 3.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.27x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Kentucky is the favorite in this matchup, with a 1.63x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your college basketball picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats -3.5 (1.96x payout)
- Over/Under: 158.5 (1.78x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Santa Clara 2.27x | Kentucky 1.63x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Why Could Santa Clara Upset Kentucky in the First Round?
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Santa Clara vs. Kentucky NCAA Tournament prediction for Friday, March 20, on PrizePicks — including why Kentucky could be on upset alert.
- Santa Clara averages 82.9 points per game, ranking second in the WCC behind only Gonzaga (85.1).
- According to Bart Torvik, Santa Clara ranks 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency (125.1), while Kentucky comes in at No. 41 (119.9).
- The Broncos shoot 46.8% from the field (second in the WCC), while the Wildcats connect on 46.4% of their shots (ninth in the SEC).
- Santa Clara really excels at getting into the passing lanes, racking up 8.9 steals per game (first in the WCC).
- Meanwhile, Kentucky commits 10.5 turnovers per contest on the year.
- Santa Clara relies on its scoring trio of G Christian Hammond (15.8 PPG), F Elijah Mahi (13.9 PPG), and F Allen Graves (11.6). Kentucky possesses two players who average double figures in G Otega Oweh (18.2 PPG) and G Denzel Aberdeen (13.2 PPG).
- The Broncos have produced a 3-3-1 against-the-spread record as an underdog this season.
- On the other hand, the Wildcats are just 10-11 ATS when they are favored in 2025-26. In addition, Kentucky is 2-3 ATS in its last five games entering the NCAA Tournament.
Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee: NCAA Tournament Upset Pick, Spread, Over/Under
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: TBS
With a play-in win vs. SMU, Miami (OH) put an end to the narrative that they didn’t belong in the NCAA Tournament. Now Miami (OH) will look to carry that momentum into the first round when they take on the No. 6 seed Tennessee Volunteers on Friday.
There’s no shortage of offense when it comes to the RedHawks. Miami (OH) is one of the top-scoring teams in the nation and thrives shooting the basketball from the perimeter. That fact was certainly on full display against SMU, in which the RedHawks cashed in 16 triples. Plus, the RedHawks held the Mustangs to just 24.0% (5-of-21) from beyond the arc.
This marks Miami (OH)’s first NCAA Tournament since 2007, but this group has been tested in many close games throughout the season. With Tennessee’s up-and-down performance to end the regular season, an upset may be within the realm of possibilities.
Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
Miami (OH) enters Friday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as 10.5-point underdogs, returning a 5.26x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they pull off an outright upset.
Tennessee is the favorite, with a 1.16x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Tennessee Volunteers -10.5 (1.78x payout)
- Over/Under: 149.5 (1.96x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Miami (OH) 5.26x | Tennessee 1.16x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Why Could Miami (OH) Upset Tennessee in the First Round?
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee NCAA Tournament first-round prediction for Friday, March 20, on PrizePicks – including why Tennessee could be on upset alert.
- Tennessee owns an 11-16-1 against-the-spread record.
- As an underdog, Miami (OH) has a 5-0 ATS record. In addition, the RedHawks are 2-1 ATS in neutral-site games.
- In the landscape of the SEC, Tennessee hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut, averaging 79.5 PPG — ranked 13th in the conference.
- Tennessee is shooting 33.4% from 3-point land (11th in the SEC), while Miami (OH) holds its opponents to a 32.2% shooting percentage from long range (first in the MAC).
- The RedHawks shoot 39.1% from beyond the arc, good for eighth in the nation. Miami (OH) G Eian Elmer (44.7%), G Peter Suder (40.9%), and G Brant Byers all shoot 40.0% or better from deep.
- Miami (OH) connected on a play-in record 16 3-pointers in its 89-79 win vs. SMU on Wednesday.
- Tennessee records 11.7 turnovers per contest, ranking 14th in the SEC.
Make NCAA Tournament Picks on PrizePicks
Can Santa Clara become the latest Cinderella team to advance past the first round of the NCAA Tournament? Will Miami (OH) carry the momentum from its play-in win and knock off Tennessee on Friday?
The NCAA Tournament early window begins at 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS, and wraps up with No. 8 seed Clemson taking on No. 9 seed Iowa at 6:50 p.m. ET.
You can make your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks for winners on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money.
Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
