The Big 12 tournament tips off on Tuesday, March 10, featuring a four-game slate for today’s college basketball action.
The Baylor Bears (16-15) vs. the Arizona State Sun Devils (16-15) begins bright and early at 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+. With each squad one game above .500, they may need to win the Big 12 Tournament to earn an NCAA Tournament berth.
Let's break down the matchup and make a Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction on the spread. You can use PrizePicks Team Picks to make college basketball predictions on game winners, spreads, over/unders, and more.
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Baylor vs. Arizona State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – 3/10/26
Since the 2008 season, Baylor is 7-0 vs. Arizona State, but both teams sport 3-3-1 against the spread (ATS) records in the split. The under is also 5-2 during the span.
The Bears remain around .500 with a 4-6 mark over their last 10 games. Arizona State, meanwhile, is 2-1 in its last three matchups and boasts a 7-3 ATS record over the past 10 games.
Baylor vs. Arizona State Spread, Over/Under
Following Baylor’s 73-68 head-to-head win on February 21, the Bears are favored by 4.5 points for Tuesday, per PrizePicks Team Picks. Led by a 2.43x payout to win, will Arizona State flirt with an upset win?
- Spread: Baylor Bears -4.5
- Over/Under: 152.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Baylor 1.53x | Arizona State 2.43x
Team picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change.
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Baylor vs. Arizona State Prediction on Spread
According to Bart Torvik, Baylor ranks 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 119th on defense. The Bears log 81.3 points per game (87th percentile) and a 54.0% effective field goal percentage (81st percentile), providing a tall task for the Arizona State defense.
Bart Torvik points to a more balanced Sun Devils squad, ranked 70th and 63rd in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. From February 28 to March 3, ASU held opponents to only 60.0 PPG, which included its 70-60 win against Kansas.
The Bears rank in the first percentile of close-2 shot distribution, drawing attention to their 39.2% 3-point shot distribution (49th percentile). Furthermore, Baylor totals 8.3 made triples (65th percentile) and 23.8 3-point attempts per game (49th percentile), per TeamRankings.
In February 21’s matchup, Arizona State held Baylor to only 21 attempts from beyond the arc. However, this may not feel sustainable with the Sun Devils in the 46th percentile of 3-point shot distribution allowed. Opponents average 8.5 made treys (25th percentile) and 23.9 attempted triples per game (35th percentile) against ASU.
Keep an eye on the Bears’ top 3-point specialists, including Baylor G Obi Agbim and G Cameron Carr. According to PrizePicks projections, Agbim is forecasted for 11.5 points on Tuesday.
As the matchup's best unit, the Baylor offense could rule the day.
Make Baylor vs. Arizona State Picks on PrizePicks
While Arizona State covered the spread in the last head-to-head matchup, stats suggest Baylor could be in store for a rebound vs. the Sun Devils on Tuesday, March 10.
Make your Baylor vs. Arizona State picks and Big 12 Tournament predictions at PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
