Saturday’s college basketball action is headlined by a potential Final Four preview, featuring two top-four matchups. The No. 4 Arizona Wildcats (24-2) against the No. 2 Houston Cougars (23-3) is the first of the two heavyweight bouts, beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
First place in the Big 12 standings is on the line, with each squad 11-2 in conference play. The Wildcats are 1-2 in the last three games, and the Cougars are looking to bounce back from Monday’s loss against Iowa State.
Who could seize control of the Big 12 in our Arizona vs. Houston prediction and Saturday CBB picks? Let’s break down the matchup and highlight player projections on PrizePicks.
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Arizona vs. Houston Prediction, Game Winner Payouts
Last season was Arizona’s first year in the Big 12 alongside Houston, and the Cougars won both matchups and posted a 2-0 mark against the spread (ATS). Since 2006, the under is 4-2 in head-to-head matchups.
At 4-6 and 6-4 over the last 10 games, neither team has strong marks ATS. But the under remains a trend, as it’s 7-3 in Arizona’s last 10 matchups and 5-1 for Houston’s previous six appearances.
Arizona vs. Houston Winner Payouts
Arizona is an underdog for the first time since November 19, featuring a 2.85x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Houston is favored on Saturday night, returning a 1.36x payout with an outright victory.
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Arizona vs. Houston Prediction on Game Winner
Arizona star freshman F Koa Peat, who is second on the team with 13.8 points per game (PPG), will miss his second consecutive game today due to a lower-leg injury. Plus, Arizona F Dwayne Aristode (undisclosed) will miss his third straight game on Saturday.
While Peat totals 5.4 rebounds per game (RPG), the Wildcats will still have their top rebounders active with Arizona F Tobe Awaka (9.6 RPG) and C Motiejus Krivas (8.7 RPG). U of A ranks in the 99th and 96th percentiles for offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, while Houston sits in the 95th and 64th percentiles.
The Wildcats won Wednesday’s rebounding battle by +6 against BYU, which ranks in the 80th and 87th percentiles for offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Arizona could be equipped to beat the Cougars at their own game: dominating the glass.
Furthermore, the Wildcats are in the 96th percentile of offensive rebounding rate allowed. According to Bart Torvik, Arizona is second in adjusted defensive efficiency. Without the extra shot attempts, Houston could struggle to score with its 52.4% effective field goal percentage.
The interior battle could determine this outcome, and the Wildcats live around the rim in the 82nd percentile of dunk shot distribution. The Cougs, meanwhile, are in the 34th percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed. Arizona touts a 55.3% eFG%, a step above Houston’s efficiency.
Arizona vs. Houston Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/21/26
Arizona C Motiejus Krivas and Houston G Emanuel Sharp could carry advantages in shot distribution for player picks on PrizePicks.
Arizona C Motiejus Krivas vs. Houston Projection: 9 Points
- Houston F Joseph Tugler (6’8” and 7’6” wingspan) and F Chris Cenac Jr. (6’11” and 7’4” wingspan) usually provide a height advantage, but Krivas stands at 7’2” with a 7’5” wingspan.
- Arizona’s center shoots a team-best 60.3% on 2-pointers and takes 94.5% of his field goal attempts from inside the arc.
- Krivas has reached double-digit point totals in seven of his last nine games, posting 11.2 PPG in the split.
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Houston G Emanuel Sharp vs. Arizona Projection: 2.5 3-PT Made
- The Wildcats have a strong interior defense that allows a 43.6% 2-point percentage, but the unit also gives up 23.0 3-point shots per game.
- Houston has its fair share of capable 3-point specialists, netting 8.9 treys per game. Sharp leads the team with 7.2 attempted triples per matchup.
- The senior guard is red-hot over the last three outings, recording 22.0 PPG while making 15 of 31 3-point shots (48.4%).
- After reaching at least 3 triples in three straight games, will Sharp’s hot streak from beyond the arc continue?
Make #4 Arizona vs. #2 Houston Picks on PrizePicks
Who will take charge in the Big 12 on Saturday? PrizePicks Team Picks has Houston as the favorite to win the conference with a 1.66x payout, compared to Arizona’s 3.7x mark in second.
Make your Arizona vs. Houston picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
