The Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Commissioner’s Cup Final is set to tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, June 30 on Prime Video. The Liberty enter as 6.5-point favorites on the spread and return a 1.4x payout with a win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The Aces and Liberty, who have combined for the last four WNBA Championships, advanced out of their respective conferences during pool play and now clash in the championship of the 2026 Commissioner's Cup. New York won the Cup in 2023 over the Aces, while Las Vegas took down the Chicago Sky for the in-season title in 2022.
Below, we’ll break down our Aces vs. Liberty prediction and picks for Tuesday’s WNBA Commissioner's Cup Final, including the spread on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Make your Aces vs. Liberty picks on PrizePicks now on tonight’s WNBA Commissioner's Cup Final.
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Aces vs. Liberty Preview, Prediction on Spread for Commissioner’s Cup Final – Tuesday, June 30
With five different winners in five seasons of the Commissioner’s Cup, including both the Liberty and Aces, one of these teams will make history as the first two-time Cup champion. The Aces' repeat bid was cut short by the Liberty in the aforementioned 2023 outing, whereas New York couldn't get past the Minnesota Lynx in 2024.
The Aces got here with a 6-1 record in pool play, only losing to the Dallas Wings. In the seven games, Las Vegas averaged 88.7 points and shot 46.8% from the field and 37.3% from long distance. Four-time league MVP A’ja Wilson scored 30+ points in three of the games and 20+ in six of the seven but is out tonight due to her right leg injury.
The Liberty got to the title game with a perfect 6-0 record in Cup action, shooting 47.1% from the field and averaging 92.5 PPG — second-best in Cup play. Former UConn Husky Breanna Stewart led the charge with back-to-back double-doubles.
The Liberty have struggled as of late, however, losing four of the past five games but beating the Aces by 11 at home in the middle of that stretch.
There are nine All-Stars and the past six MVPs between these two squads, counting Wilson.
Aces vs. Liberty Spread, Over/Under – Tuesday, June 30
The Liberty enter Tuesday’s game as 6.5-point favorites against the Aces at home, returning a 1.4x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for Aces vs. Liberty on PrizePicks, influenced by Wilson's absence.
- Spread: New York Liberty -6.5 (1.85x payout)
- Over/Under: 174.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Liberty 1.4x | Aces 2.85x
Play the Aces vs. Liberty spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Aces vs. Liberty Injury Report for Tuesday, June 30
Let’s dive into the full Aces vs. Liberty injury report for Tuesday, June 30, via WNBA.com.
Las Vegas Aces Injury Report
- F Janiah Barker (Leg) - OUT
- G Dana Evans (Leg) - OUT
- C A’ja Wilson (Leg) - OUT
New York Liberty Injury Report
- F Satou Sabally (Concussion) - OUT
Aces vs. Liberty Prediction on Spread for Commissioner’s Cup Final: 6/30/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Aces vs. Liberty prediction on the spread for Tuesday, June 30.
Lock in your Aces vs. Liberty prediction on PrizePicks.
- The Aces lead the all-time series 34-29, including an 87-76 win last Tuesday in New York.
- Las Vegas is 10-9 this season against the spread, including covers in four of the last five games. The lone non-cover in that span was the club's 11-point loss to the Liberty.
- The defending champion Aces are an underdog for the first time in their 20 games this campaign. Last year, the Aces were 6-5 ATS as an underdog, including four straight outright wins at the end of the season.
- According to databallr.com, the Aces have a 114.0 offensive rating, tops in the league, and a defensive rating of 108.2 (eighth). Their offensive impact rating is +5.6, the best in the W.
- The Liberty are only 9-11 ATS, failing to cover in five of the last six games. That lone cover, however, was as a 2.5-point home underdog vs. the Aces last week.
- The Liberty lead the WNBA in net efficiency at +10.1. Their defensive rating is fourth at 105.7 and offensive rating is sixth at 110.9.
- Wilson's injury could impact this one in a big way. Her +22.1 net rating includes massive swings for the Aces' points per 100 possessions on offense (+13.9) and defense (-8.3) when she's on the floor.
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The two best teams from the last four seasons meet to decide the 2026 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup. Will the Liberty earn another Cup after beating the Aces in 2023, or will the Aces overcome Wilson being out and earn another crown?
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