If the 2026 World Cup format hadn’t changed due to expansion, Group I would be the “Group of Death.” The group is headlined by France, but both Norway and Senegal are ranked in the Top 20 in the Elo ratings, while Iraq will look to play spoiler to all three.
Before and during World Cup 2026, you can make real-money predictions on World Cup Group I, including which team will win or advance to the knockout stage on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Below, we’ll break down each of the Group I teams, including winner predictions, chances to advance, and the best World Cup 2026 Group I picks to consider on PrizePicks.
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2026 World Cup Group I Teams, Favorites & Payouts
Here are the Group I teams and the payouts for each team to win and advance to the knockout stage.
Who is in World Cup Group I?
France is the favorite to win Group I, but many expect both Norway and Senegal to advance to the knockout stages, while Iraq is seen by many to be the side to finish last.
- France
- Norway
- Senegal
- Iraq
The top two teams from every group and the top eight third-place teams across all groups will advance to the World Cup knockout stage.
The payouts below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct on PrizePicks Team Picks; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry would pay out $200 on PrizePicks Team Picks.
The lower the payout multiplier, the more likely the outcome, according to user picks. Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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World Cup 2026 Group I Winner Favorites & Payouts
Here are the payouts for each team to win Group I, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
France enters as a significant favorite, with Norway and Senegal sitting behind them. Iraq is the biggest underdog to win the group based on pre-tournament payouts on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- France to Win Group I: Yes 1.44x | No 2.63x
- Norway to Win Group I: Yes 3.7x | No 1.25x
- Senegal to Win Group I: Yes 7.14x | No 1.07x
- Iraq to Win Group I: Yes 33.33x | No N/A
Find more World Cup group predictions from our experts.
World Cup 2026 Group I to Advance to Knockout Stage Payouts
Here are the payouts for each team to advance to the knockout stage in Group I. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, France, Norway, and Senegal are all expected to advance through FIFA's expanded format, while Iraq has a relatively low chance.
- France to Qualify from Group I: Yes 1.01x | No 14.28x
- Norway to Qualify from Group I: Yes 1.14x | No 4.76x
- Senegal to Qualify from Group I: Yes 1.4x | No 2.77x
- Iraq to Qualify from Group I: Yes 5.55x | No 1.12x
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2026 World Cup Group I Winner Prediction: Back France?
France to Win Group I: Yes 1.44x | No 2.63x
France to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 5x | No 1.14x
The 2022 World Cup runners-up are back and are co-favorites with Spain to win the 2026 World Cup as of the writing of this piece. It’s the fourth and final World Cup for manager Didier Deschamps, as his 14-year span at the helm will finally come to an end.
France has a tremendous pedigree, playing in four of the last seven finals while winning the World Cup in both 1998 and 2018. Deschamps comes in with a loaded squad full of world-class superstars, especially in attack.
However, the manager has long been criticized for his conservative approach, often stifling the creativity and attacking prowess possessed by his stars. Should he unleash them at World Cup 2026, look out.
LW Kylian Mbappe will be a locked-in starter in a 4-2-3-1 setup, while RW Michael Olise is one of the most in-form attackers in the world. Deschamps will also have ST Ousmane Dembele, RW Desire Doue, RW Bradley Barcola, and AM Rayan Cherki to choose from.
France’s undoing could be at the back. GK Mike Maignan is one of the best in the world, but CB William Saliba enters the tournament with a back injury. There are also real questions about the left side of defense, with LB Theo Hernandez sometimes finding defense to be a suggestion — and Mbappe will be absolutely no help.
Mbappe needs just 4 goals to tie Miroslav Klose for the most career World Cup goals. If Deschamps sets him and the French attack free, they will have the ability to make a very deep run.
Pick France to win World Cup Group I on PrizePicks.
Norway – World Cup Group I Prediction, Preview
To Win Group I: Yes 3.7x | No 1.25x
To Qualify for Knockout Stage: Yes 1.14x | No 4.76x
All the focus for Norway will be on ST Erling Haaland, especially after he bagged 16 goals in eight qualifying matches. To overlook the rest of the squad is a mistake.
Norway’s in the World Cup for the first time this century and the fourth time ever, and their attack is loaded. Haaland is joined up top by ST Alexander Sorloth in their 4-4-2 setup, with Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard slotted in behind them. Odegaard is often given the ability to float around and will often float into a No. 10 role or even become a right winger.
He’ll be joined by fellow Premier League players CM Sander Berge and RM Oscar Bobb. LM Antonio Nusa is an exciting attacking talent as well, as he showed during qualification.
ST Jorgen Strand Larsen is also available to provide a scoring threat off the bench.
There are questions in defense. Seville GK Orjan Haskjold Nyland started just five matches this season and could be a weak spot behind a physical but somewhat slow back line.
That said, the attacking threat of Haaland and Sorloth, combined with Odegaard’s ability to unlock defenses, makes this a very dangerous team that is capable of springing an upset over nearly any team in the tournament.
Pick Norway to advance from World Cup Group I on PrizePicks.
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Senegal – World Cup Group I Prediction, Preview
To Win Group I: Yes 7.14x | No 1.07x
To Qualify for Knockout Stage: Yes 1.4x | No 2.77x
Senegal steamrolled their AFC opposition and qualified with ease, outscoring opponents 22-3 in their 10 World Cup 2026 qualification matches. That earned them their fourth World Cup appearance and third in a row.
The Lions of Teranga reached the knockout stage in Qatar, but the absence of all-time leading scorer LW Sadio Mane doomed their hopes. Now it’s injuries to CB Kalidou Koulibaly and DM Idrissa Gana Gueye that have Senegal fans concerned, as both are just now returning to team training.
Koulibaly’s the biggest worry, with the captain having been sidelined since early April. Former Chelsea GK Edouard Mendy provides a presence at the back, while Mamadou Sarr and Moussa Niakhate would deputize at center back for Koulibaly in a 4-3-3 formation or line up beside him when they play a 3-4-3.
Senegal has a dangerous attack, with Mane joined by ST Nicolas Jackson and RW Iliman Ndiaye. ST Bamba Dieng also could challenge for a starting role, with AM Ismaila Sarr generating chances behind him.
Senegal’s pace makes them a serious threat on the counterattack, as the United States discovered in their recent friendly. If the key pieces of their spine stay fit, they possess the talent to advance and cause some chaos in the tournament.
Pick Senegal to advance from World Cup Group I on PrizePicks.
Iraq – World Cup Group I Prediction, Preview
To Win Group I: Yes 33.33x | No N/A
To Qualify for Knockout Stage: Yes 5.55x | No 1.12x
Iraq had a difficult path to reach the 2026 World Cup, requiring 21 matches of qualification, including an intercontinental playoff. It led to just their second-ever appearance in the competition and first in 50 years.
Their manager, Graham Arnold, came over from his position with Australia and is managing his second straight World Cup and typically sets Iraq up in a 4-4-2 formation that operates in a low block playing compact defense.
This is due to Iraq having very little top-flight talent. Their top scorer during qualification, ST Ayman Hussein, has played nearly his entire career in the Middle East.
ST Ali Al Hamadi played at Luton Town in England’s third division this season, while LW Marko Lawk Farji played little part in Venezia winning Italy’s Serie B. Nearly the rest of the squad played in the likes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq.
Opta has Iraq’s chances of advancing as the third-lowest of any nation, giving them just a 27.1% chance. The overwhelming talent facing them in this group, in addition to their lack of world-class players, will make qualifying an extremely uphill battle.
Predict Iraq World Cup Group I results on PrizePicks.
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Make World Cup Group Winner Predictions on PrizePicks
France is the headliner of Group I, but both Norway and Senegal present dangerous opposition and will expect to move into the knockout stages. Iraq may be fortunate to find a point in this group, with qualification being extremely difficult for them given the talent disparity.
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