The stars have shown up at the 2026 World Cup, scoring goals and putting on a show in the group stage. Aside from Cristiano Ronaldo, nearly every pre-tournament Golden Boot contender has scored multiple goals.
Lionel Messi stepped up huge, posting his first-ever World Cup hat trick against Algeria and scoring six times during the group stage. But France’s duo of Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé is hot on his heels, along with Erling Haaland and Vinícius Júnior.
Below, we’ll break down some of the top players in the Golden Boot race based on the implied odds via PrizePicks Team Picks and explain why they might end up as the top goalscorer at the 2026 World Cup as we the knockout rounds unfold.
Throughout the 2026 World Cup, you can make real-money predictions on players like Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé to win the Golden Boot, score goals in individual matches, and more on PrizePicks.
Make your 2026 World Cup Golden Boot winner prediction on PrizePicks.
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2026 World Cup Golden Boot Prediction, Favorites to Win
With three matches played and a potential five remaining, there’s plenty of time for someone to become a national hero. It also provides time for a player to perhaps chase down Messi, whose 6 goals scored are 2 more than anybody else thus far.
The players listed below are currently the favorites to win the award at PrizePicks Team Picks. The list consists only of players whose teams have not yet been eliminated.
Find more daily World Cup predictions and expert picks here.
2026 World Cup Golden Boot Winner Favorites: Messi Clear at Top
Here are the updated 2026 World Cup Golden Boot favorites to win the award, via PrizePicks Team Picks, including their payouts if you predict them to win.
Payouts from TeamPicks are live as of writing but are subject to change. Payouts listed below (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 4x on a $100 entry would pay out $400 on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Lionel Messi, Argentina – Yes 1.78x | No 1.96x
- Kylian Mbappé, France – Yes 3.33x | No 1.29x
- Ousmane Dembélé, France – Yes 7.14x | No 1.06x
- Erling Haaland, Norway – Yes 11.11x | No 1.02x
- Harry Kane, England– Yes 14.28x | No 1.02x
- Vinícius Júnior, Brazil – Yes 22.22x | No N/A
- Folarin Balogun, USA – Yes 33.33x | No N/A
- Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain – 33.33x | No N/A
Make your 2026 World Cup Golden Boot Winner prediction on PrizePicks.
FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winners List, History
Here is a complete list of past World Cup Golden Boot winners for comparison to the current standings. Please note, this year’s tournament is expanded to 48 teams, which means an additional round of matches in the knockout stage.
The award for the World Cup’s top goal scorer was officially given out for the first time at the 1982 World Cup, where it was called the Golden Shoe. In 2010, the award was renamed the Golden Boot.
Results below will only track since the award was created in 1982. That said, the record for most goals in a World Cup is Just Fontaine in 1958, who scored 13 goals for France.
- 2022: Kylian Mbappé, France – 8 Goals
- 2018: Harry Kane, England – 6 Goals
- 2014: James Rodríguez, Colombia – 6 Goals
- 2010: Thomas Müller, Germany – 5 Goals
- 2006: Miroslav Klose, Germany – 5 Goals
- 2002: Ronaldo, Brazil – 8 Goals
- 1998: Davor Šuker, Croatia – 6 Goals
- 1994: Oleg Salenko, Russia – 6 Goals; Hristo Stoichkov, Bulgaria – 6 Goals
- 1990: Salvatore “Totò” Schillaci, Italy – 6 Goals
- 1986: Gary Lineker, England – 6 Goals
- 1982: Paolo Rossi, Italy – 6 Goals
2026 World Cup Golden Boot Predictions, Picks to Win
Here are three players to consider for your 2026 World Cup Golden Boot picks on PrizePicks Team Picks heading into the knockout rounds, led by Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé, with a longer-shot option at the end.
Lionel Messi, Argentina – 6 Goals
Lionel Messi World Cup Golden Boot Winner Payout: Yes 1.78x | No 1.96x
Lionel Messi is now the all-time leading goalscorer in World Cup history, thanks to 6 goals in just 200 minutes played during the group stage.
His hat trick against Algeria saw him pull level with German legend Miroslav Klose and gave him his first-ever hat trick at the World Cup. He then put 2 more past the keeper against Austria before scoring off the bench in Argentina’s 3-1 win over Jordan.
Messi’s 6 goals came from just 2.69 xG, and his 3.31 goals above expected are more than any player in the tournament. He’s also taken 15 shots, putting 9 on target. The most impressive part of his performance is that he’s had just 12 touches inside the opposing penalty area.
The legendary forward has now scored in seven straight World Cup matches, and Argentina’s path to the quarterfinals is straightforward compared to other nations. The favorable matchup with Cape Verde may present him an opportunity to tack on even more goals.
Pick Lionel Messi to win the World Cup Golden Boot on PrizePicks.
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Kylian Mbappé, France – 4 Goals
Kylian Mbappé World Cup Golden Boot Winner Payout: Yes 3.33x | No 1.29x
Much like Messi, Kylian Mbappé got off to a hot start and it has him close to the Argentine’s heels for the most goals ever scored in a World Cup career.
He bagged 2 goals against Senegal in a dominant second-half performance, including a screamer from distance to seal the win. He followed that up with a brace against Iraq.
But against Norway, Mbappé became a creator more than a finisher. He assisted 2 goals for Ousmane Dembélé and failed to score despite 4 shots. His efforts accounted for just 0.29 xG and 0.25 xGOT, even with 2 efforts on target.
That said, Mbappé has been heavily active. His 27 touches inside the penalty area trailed only Vini Jr. in the group stage, and he was tied with Messi with 9 shots on target during the opening three matches.
Mbappé is being used exclusively now as an out-and-out striker, which could increase his probability of scoring. His 16 shots in the tournament are the most of any player, and he’s averaging 0.14 xG per attempt.
France takes on Sweden next, and they allowed the most xG per shot of any team during the group stage. After that, things could get interesting with a stingy Paraguay defense followed by a potential matchup with a Morocco side that tends to play openly.
Mbappé already has a record-tying 8 career knockout stage goals and will look to add to that as he helps France move forward.
Pick Kylian Mbappé to win the World Cup Golden Boot on PrizePicks.
Ousmane Dembélé, France – 4 Goals
Ousmane Dembélé World Cup Golden Boot Winner Payout: Yes 7.14x | No 1.06x
Speaking of Dembélé, after never scoring for France at a major tournament, he picked up a goal and an assist in the club's 3-0 win over Iraq in just 68 minutes.
He followed that up with a hat trick performance against Norway inside the opening 32 minutes. He was terrorizing the Norwegian defense, cutting inside repeatedly on his left foot and beating the keeper.
Dembélé looks very comfortable on the right wing and is linking well with Mbappé and Michael Olise. He’s also being efficient, scoring as many goals as Mbappé despite taking half as many shots and playing just 213 minutes.
The winger has 16 penalty-box touches so far, but he showed against Norway that he can score from range as well. He'll need to produce in limited minutes, though, if he wants to win the Golden Boot. He hasn't logged more than 68 minutes in four of his last five starts for France.
Pick Ousmane Dembélé to win the World Cup Golden Boot on PrizePicks.
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Make World Cup Golden Boot Winner Predictions on PrizePicks
Lionel Messi scored 6 goals during the group stage of the 2026 World Cup and has made himself the frontrunner in the Golden Boot race. However, there’s still plenty of time for others to catch or pass him as they attempt to lead their teams to glory.
Will one of the French forwards catch and pass him, or will Haaland or Vini Jr. put their nations on their backs and begin finding the back of the net at a high rate? No matter who you think scores the most goals in the 2026 World Cup, you can make your Golden Boot prediction on PrizePicks and get paid if you’re right.
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