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2026 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks for First Round Winner for Thursday

United States golfer Patrick Cantlay celebrates after a putt.
AP Photo/Robert Bukaty

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the first golf signature event of the year, which means a smaller field of 80 golfers with no cut after 36 holes, and a $20 million purse of prizes.

All golfers will play 72 holes, with 18 of them on the Spyglass Course and the rest on Pebble Beach's historic course.

The Pebble Beach course features some of the smallest greens on PGA Tour, with about 3,500 square feet. Playing from the fairway, being great with short approach, and handling around the greens when you miss them are what's important here.

Below, we'll break down our Pebble Beach Pro-Am first round picks, including first round leader picks for PrizePicks Team Picks and golfer projections on strokes and birdies from Player Picks.

See our full Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks here for the entire tournament.

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Pebble Beach Pro-Am First Round Picks, Favorites, Payouts

In Thursday’s first round, there is a wrinkle, as half of the field will play Pebble Beach Golf Links, and the other half will play Spyglass Hill.

Last year, Russell Henley shot a 64 at Spyglass Hills to take the first-round lead there, while five players tied with a 65 on the Pebble Beach course. 

Here are the payout projections for the top 10 golfers to be the first-round leader at the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

PGA futures payouts are live as of publishing, but are subject to change.

Scottie Scheffler - 5.88x Payout (Pebble Beach)

Rory McIlroy - 14.28x (Spyglass Hills)

Chris Gotterup - 16.66x (Pebble Beach)

Hideki Matsuyama - 22.22x (Pebble Beach)

Tommy Fleetwood - 22.22x (Spyglass Hills)

Russell Henley - 22.22x (Pebble Beach)

Jake Knapp - 22.22x (Spyglass Hills)

Xander Schauffele - 22.22x (Spyglass Hills)

Justin Rose - 22.22x (Spyglass Hills)

Robert MacIntyre - 22.22x (Spyglass Hills)


2026 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks for First Round

Here are two golfers to consider for your Pebble Beach Pro-Am first round leader picks on PrizePicks Team Picks and Player Picks projections.

Patrick Cantlay

Patrick Cantlay Pebble Beach First Round Leader Payout:  Yes - 22.22x Payout

Patrick Cantlay First Round Projections: 69 Strokes, 5 Birdies or Better, 10 Fairways Hit

  • Patrick Cantlay has consistently been near or at the top after 18 holes of this event. He led after the first round in 2021, was second in both 2020 and 2024, fourth in 2022, and 2018.
  • Last year, Cantlay's opening round of 66 was one shot off the pace. 
  • In eight appearances in this event, Cantlay's worst first-round position is 14th in 2017.
  • He is starting on the Pebble Beach course on Thursday, where he is top 10 in shots gained total.
  • The UCLA product averaged a 65.6 in the first round at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, tops in the field. 

Russell Henley

Russell Henley Pebble Beach First Round Leader Payout:  Yes - 22.22x Payout

Russell Henley First Round Projections: 68.5 Strokes, 5 Birdies or Better, 11 Fairways Hit

  • Russell Henley’s first-round 64 last year was good enough to claim first-round leader honors. 
  • He is starting on the Pebble Beach course on Thursday, where he is top 10 in shots gained total.
  • The Georgia Bulldogs product gained 10 strokes on approach at The American Express Championship two weeks ago, but could not putt.
  • Henley crushed it on the greens here last year en route to the tie for fifth, gaining 7.5 strokes with his putter on the course in 2025 — his best putting performance of the last two years.
  • Henley ranks fifth in shots gained on approach this PGA season after finishing 13th all of last season in that metric.

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Make 2026 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Picks on PrizePicks

80 of the world’s best golfers will tee it up starting Thursday at historic Pebble Beach Golf Links. Can Patrick Cantlay continue his strong play at Pebble Beach? Or will a long shot jump up and take the first round lead?

You can make your Pebble Beach Pro -Am picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on tournament winners, top 5 finishes, and more, now available in 34 states.

Get in the game! Sign up for PrizePicks and cash in on your sports predictions. Play $5 and get $50 instantly in Lineups with promo code PLAYBOOK.

Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.

about the author

David Bearman spent 18 years with ESPN in their Stats & Information Department and overseeing their betting content. From 2023-25, he served as Chief Content Officer of Pro Football Network, overseeing all content, including coverage of Super Bowls 58 and 59. He is also the Founder of Betting with Bearman, a 3x a week betting newsletter and weekly podcast on Bleav Podcast Network.

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