The four-game NFL Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday, as the two No. 1 seeds in the NFC and AFC will take the field for the first time this weekend.
Below, we’ll analyze our two favorite NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can make NFL picks on games in 30 states!
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These NFL spread predictions will highlight the Denver Broncos (14-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (13-5) at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday on CBS to kick off the Divisional Round action.
We'll also break down the Houston Texans (13-5) vs. the New England Patriots (15-3) at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday.
The Bills are heading to Mile High on short rest, while the Broncos get extended rest while playing one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Patriots have the weakest strength of schedule in the NFL, and finally get a difficult matchup vs. one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Let's get into the top NFL spread predictions for the Divisional Round of the 2026 NFL Playoffs.
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos Pick Against the Spread for Divisional Round
Date: Saturday, January 17
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: CBS/Paramount+ (Streaming)
Bills vs. Broncos Spread, Over/Under, Payout
Bills vs. Broncos over/under, spread, and game winner payouts are via PrizePicks Team Picks. All projections are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Game Winner Payout: Bills 2.01x | Broncos 1.84x
Spread: Broncos -1.5
Over/Under: 45.5
The AFC No. 1 seed Denver Broncos find themselves in a very unique spot, being on extended rest (13 days) while the Buffalo Bills are on short rest (5 days).
Broncos head coach Sean Payton has been excellent since the 2009 NFL season when he’s at home on 9+ days of rest, owning an outstanding 17-3 record straight-up.
Meanwhile, Bills QB Josh Allen has gone 8-6 in 14 playoff appearances since the 2020 season. But when Allen heads on the road in the NFL playoffs, he's just 1-4. The Bills get s a massive boost in Buffalo.
The Buffalo Bills also encountered a crucial injury in the Wild Card round, as safety Jordan Poyer will be out this week with a leg injury. Poyer allowed just an 82.5 passer rating on nine receptions this season, ranking 38th out of 98 safeties via PFF.
He will be replaced by rookie fifth-round pick Jordan Hancock, who has played only 130 snaps at the free safety position this season.
In the Wild Card weekend against the Jaguars, the Buffalo Bills allowed 6.7 yards per carry and 154 rushing yards on the ground. This brings their average rushing yards allowed per game to 137 — a concerning number for a team in the playoffs.
Unfortunately for the Buffalo Bills, teams allowing an average of 120+ rushing yards in the playoffs on the road are just (3–19) on the moneyline.
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Houston Texans vs. New England Pick Against the Spread for Divisional Round
Date: Sunday, Jan. 18
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: ESPN/ABC
Texans vs. Patriots Spread, Over/Under, Payout
Texans vs. Patriots over/under, spread, and game winner payouts are via PrizePicks Team Picks. All projections are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Game Winner Payout: Patriots 1.55x | Texans 2.46x
Spread: Patriots -3.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Texans vs. Patriots Pick Against the Spread
Since the 2023 NFL season, Texans QB C.J. Stroud has struggled on the road, owning an ugly 3-10 record. Despite winning the Wild Card game vs. the Steelers, Stroud still struggled, throwing an interception and losing two fumbles.
Among all NFL playoff quarterbacks, Stroud ranked squarely in the bottom half of QBs in EPA per play.
The Texans’ success stems from their defensive line, as DE Will Anderson Jr. ranks top five in pressures with 93, and DE Danielle Hunter also ranks top five in pressures with 83.
Unfortunately for them, Patriots QB Drake Maye ranks fifth in EPA per pass and second in total EPA when under pressure, trailing only Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes.
Also, when under pressure, Maye also ranks third in the NFL in pass TDs, first in the NFL in passing yards with 1,457 yards, and fourth in the NFL in completion percentage — showing he has consistently negated pressure, albeit vs. a soft schedule.
This 40.5 total sits extremely low — the lowest total of the divisional round games. That could favor the Patriots and their high-powered offense at home. Playoff teams that average 24 points per game in the playoffs with a total below 41.5 are an outstanding 15-3 straight up since the 2004 NFL Playoffs.
Houston Texans also fall into a peculiar historical trend: teams with stout run defenses that allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, while being 3+ point underdogs, are just an ugly 4–2 straight up since the 2009 NFL Playoffs.
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Make NFL Divisional Round Picks on Spread on PrizePicks
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