After seemingly countless games, there are just four teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan, Arizona, UConn, and Illinois are the champions of their respective regions and will be in Indianapolis for the Round of 4 to determine the National Championship matchup.
UConn leads the quartet with six national titles, winning back-to-back in 2023 and 2024. Arizona (1997) and Michigan (1989) each have one, while Illinois is looking for the school’s first. The two No. 1 seeds left, Arizona and Michigan, meet in one game, while UConn (a 2-seed) and Illinois (a 3-seed) meet in the other.
Let's break down a 2026 NCAA National Semifinals early prediction, preview, and spread. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
NCAA Tournament Round of 4 Predictions, Picks, Payouts
One team is just two wins away from cutting down the nets and being crowned a champion. Here are the payouts for each remaining squad to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Payouts to Win NCAA Tournament on PrizePicks Team Picks
- Arizona Wildcats: 2.63x
- Michigan Wolverines: 2.7x
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 4.76x
- UConn Huskies: 6.66x
Team Picks payouts are live as of writing and are subject to change.
UConn vs. Illinois Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
UConn stunned Duke and the entire basketball world with the last-second steal and miracle 3-pointer to complete a 19-point comeback and earn a 73-72 win. The Huskies have won 17 of their last 18 tournament games and are in the Round of 4 for the eighth time in school history — also the third time in four years.
UConn won 22 of its first 23 games, including a 13-point triumph over Illinois back on November 28.
The Illini advanced to their first National Semifinal since 2005, when they beat Louisville but then lost to North Carolina in the title game. Illinois knocked off No. 2 seed Houston and then used a late surge to put an end to conference rival Iowa’s season in the Regional Final.
The Illini have eight losses. Six came against ranked teams, four were in overtime, and six were by four points or less. The two double-digit losses were to two Round of 4 teams: a 14-point loss to Michigan and a 13-point loss to UConn.
UConn vs. Illinois Spread, Over/Under
Illinois enters Saturday’s NCAA National Semifinal game as 2.5-point favorites, with a 1.69x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
UConn is the underdog with a 2.12x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5 (1.92x payout)
- Over/Under: 139.5 (1.88x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: UConn 2.12x | Illinois 1.69x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
UConn vs. Illinois Prediction on Spread – 4/4/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament UConn vs. Illinois prediction on the spread for Saturday, April 4, on PrizePicks.
- The Huskies are 16-22 against the spread, fourth-worst in the Big East conference.
- However, UConn has covered in three of four tournament games this year and in 17 of the last 18 dating back to the 2023 championship run. The lone non-cover was in the first round vs. Furman this year.
- Per KenPom, UConn is rated ninth in the country, with an offensive rating of 122.8 (28th) and a defensive rating of 93.7 (ninth).
- The Illini are 22-14 (61.1%) ATS, leading all Big Ten teams and sitting in the top 20 of the nation.
- Illinois is 18-11 ATS as a favorite, also the best in the Big Ten.
- The Illini score 83.8 PPG, second in the conference and 24th in the country.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Michigan vs. Arizona Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
While the first National Semifinal features two teams not projected to make it to Indianapolis, No. 1 seeds Michigan and Arizona were widely expected to get there.
The Wolverines started the season 25-1 to ascend to No. 1 in the country before a five-point loss to Duke. Michigan won its next six games to win the Big Ten regular-season title before losing to Purdue in the conference tournament.
The Wolverines are the first team in NCAA history to win four or more tourney games while scoring 90+ in all of them. After dispatching Howard and Saint Louis by 21 and 23, respectively, Michigan knocked off No. 4 Alabama by 13 and No. 6 Tennessee by 33 to earn the school’s ninth trip to the National Semifinals.
Arizona also spent time as the No. 1 team in the country, starting the season 23-0. Back-to-back losses to No. 9 Kansas and No. 16 Texas Tech by a combined seven points are their only losses all season. The Wildcats have wins over 13 ranked teams, including UConn.
The Wildcats have been as dominant as Michigan in the NCAA Tournament, winning all four games by 12+ points. After beating Long Island by 34 and Utah State by 12, Arizona beat No. 4 Arkansas by 21 and No. 2 Purdue by 15. They're in the Round of 4 for the first time since losing to Duke in the 2001 national title game.
Michigan vs. Arizona Spread, Over/Under
Michigan enters Saturday’s NCAA National Semifinal game as a 1.5-point favorite, with a 1.85x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Arizona is the underdog with a 1.96x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -1.5 (1.96x payout)
- Over/Under: 157.5 (1.88x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Arizona 1.96x | Michigan 1.85x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Michigan vs. Arizona Prediction on Spread – 4/4/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament Michigan vs. Arizona prediction on the spread for Saturday, April 4, on PrizePicks.
- This matchup is between the top two teams in KenPom’s rankings, with Michigan No. 1 and Arizona No. 2. Both teams have offensive and defensive ratings in the top five.
- Michigan is 18-20 ATS. After not covering vs. Howard in the first round, the Wolverines have covered in each of the last three tournament games.
- The Wolverines average 87.5 PPG, tops in the Big Ten and eighth in the country.
- Arizona is 23-14-1 ATS, second-best in the Big 12. They've covered in all four tournament games, joining Illinois as the only two teams to do so.
- The Wildcats have won every game they entered as an underdog, defeating Florida, UConn, Houston, and BYU.
- The Wildcats are incredibly deep, boasting seven players averaging at least 8.6 PPG.
Make 2026 NCAA Tournament Picks on PrizePicks
Arizona won the Big 12 title and has wins over Florida, UConn, Alabama, Houston, Iowa State, Purdue, and Kansas. But before they get to the National Championship, they have to go through a Michigan squad that also spent time at No. 1 in the polls.
UConn and Illinois square off first to see who can continue their magical ride and take on another No. 1 seed in the title game on Monday, April 6.
You can make your 2026 NCAA Tournament futures picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, including on teams to win the National Semifinal and National Championship.
On PrizePicks, you can also pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
