Conference Championship Weekend is finally here in the NFL. Sunday’s slate features a pair of massive clashes on the gridiron in the AFC and NFC Championship.
At 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS, the New England Patriots take on the Denver Broncos at Mile High. Not to be outdone, a 6:30 p.m. ET game on FOX has the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks going toe-to-toe in a battle of bitter NFC West rivals.
Below, we’ll dive into our AFC and NFC Championship preview, including spreads and matchups to watch in both. With PrizePicks Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, totals, and futures and turn your NFL picks into real money if you’re right.
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AFC Championship: #2 New England Patriots vs. #1 Denver Broncos
Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: CBS, Paramount+
Patriots vs. Broncos Spread, Over/Under, Game Winner Payout
Patriots vs. Broncos over/under, spread, and game winner payouts are via PrizePicks Team Picks. All projections are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Game Winner Payout: Patriots 1.38x | Broncos 2.85x
Spread: New England Patriots -3.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Title Game Preview
Sunday is the sixth all-time postseason meeting between the Patriots and Broncos, and the first since the AFC Championship Game a decade ago. A meeting of the top two seeds in the conference has a new twist, however, entering the weekend.
Near the end of a Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans, Denver QB Bo Nix suffered a fracture in his ankle. His season is over, thrusting backup Jarrett Stidham into the spotlight.
In the biggest game of Stidham's career, can he lead the Broncos to a win over his former team?
Given the circumstances, New England’s path to victory seems more straightforward: roll with the hot hand of MVP candidate QB Drake Maye. Per SumerSports, Maye has racked up more total EPA (169.96) than any signal-caller.
Maye also leads an attack that, via NFL Pro, is seventh in both quick and intermediate passing. Denver’s defense is 20th and 26th defending each, respectively.
For the Broncos, the keys could be classic. Clean football with limited turnovers is paramount, as is keeping the ball out of Maye’s hands. New England ranks right down the middle in run defense (-0.04 EPA per rush), which could lead to an interesting time of possession battle.
If Denver reduces the number of drives in the game, it could leave the door open for mistakes and variance on the other side to carry that much more weight.
AFC Championship Game Matchups, X-Factors for Patriots vs. Broncos
Patriots’ Key Matchup: How Maye holds up against a vaunted pass defense (-0.11 EPA per play). According to Pro Football Focus, the second-year QB had a pair of turnover-worthy plays in the Wild Card Round and Divisional Round. Maye can’t afford to be careless here against an elite unit.
New England’s X-Factor: CB Christian Gonzalez. He cleared concussion protocol and got thrown into the fire in the Divisional Round with 16 targets faced. While he allowed 7 receptions, his 3.6 yards per target and 5 tight-window throws forced reflected dominance. He now gets another tough draw in Broncos WR Courtland Sutton.
Broncos’ Key Matchup: Stidham vs. the team that drafted him in 2019. He hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass in over two years now, which makes Sunday a true wild-card. While exploitable, the Patriots’ defense still sits 11th in EPA per pass (-0.04). Can the seventh-year field general defy the odds and take the Broncos to the Super Bowl?
Denver’s X-Factor: RB RJ Harvey. While veteran J.K. Dobbins’ practice window has opened, Harvey could be the Broncos’ most important offensive player on Sunday. He had 66 scrimmage yards in the Divisional Round on just 11 touches. The Patriots yielded the fifth-fewest rushing yards (1,311) but 15th-most receiving yards (524) to RBs in the regular season.
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NFC Championship: #5 Los Angeles Rams vs. #1 Seattle Seahawks
Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: FOX
Rams vs. Seahawks Spread, Over/Under, Game Winner Payout
Rams vs. Seahawks over/under, spread, and game winner payouts are via PrizePicks Team Picks. All projections are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Game Winner Payout: Rams 2.17x | Seahawks 1.61x
Spread: Seattle Seahawks -2.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Rams vs. Seahawks NFC Title Game Preview
Championship weekend is just the third time the Rams and Seahawks will play in the playoffs, but it’s their 58th all-time meeting. The two sides split their 2025 regular-season games, which were decided by a combined 3 points.
This game could be a tried-and-true offense vs. defense clash. Head coach Sean McVay’s Rams offense is first in both yardage and points this year. On the opposite sideline, Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks crew is first in points per drive allowed and fourth in per-drive yards.
Los Angeles’ path to victory is finding success on quick passes, where Seattle’s downright elite defense shows a minor crack by being 10th. Forcing the Hawks to run the ball (15th in EPA per rush) could also force QB Sam Darnold to be one-dimensional.
Similar to Denver, relying on ball control and mistake-free football might be the path for Seattle. Darnold threw just 17 times in a 41-6 Divisional Round blowout over the San Francisco 49ers. If the Seahawks can generate some occasional explosives on offense and prevent them on defense (best at both), it’d go a long way.
Something tells this writer it could be another close-knit outcome between familiar foes.
NFC Championship Game Matchups & X-Factors for Rams vs. Seahawks
Rams Key Matchup: QB Matthew Stafford vs. the blitz. During the regular season, the potential MVP posted a sparkling 125.4 passer rating with 32 TDs and 1 INT against the blitz. The Seahawks, conversely, allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (36.6) on blitz looks and led the sport with a -0.41 EPA per play average there.
Rams' X-Factor: WR Davante Adams. In his second playoff game of 2026, the 33-year-old failed to convert on 8 of his 13 targets. He did top all pass catchers with 12 red zone TDs in the regular season. Can he succeed there against Seattle’s fifth-ranked defense inside the 20?
Seahawks’ Key Matchup: How RB Kenneth Walker fares against L.A.’s defense. With RB Zach Charbonnet (ACL) out for the year, it’s all on Walker now. Coming off a 19-carry, 116-yard, 3-TD showing against San Fran, he now squares off against a Rams group that’s surrendered the fourth-lowest rush EPA average (-0.173, via RBSDM) this postseason.
Seattle’s X-Factor: QB Sam Darnold. In his two games vs. the Rams this season, Darnold racked up 549 passing yards but had 2 TDs to 6 INTs. His quiet Divisional Round didn’t do a ton to inspire immense confidence. L.A.’s defense is 10th in series conversion rate. Should Walker get going, it could have a direct tie to Darnold’s success. Per NFL Pro, Seattle is second in play-action pass efficiency; the Rams are 24th on defense.
Make AFC & NFC Championship Game Picks on PrizePicks
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