The Minnesota Vikings (6-8) and New York Giants (2-12) are likely eager to put the 2025 season in the rearview mirror, but each team has a chance to add to its deflating win total in Sunday’s 1:00 p.m. ET matchup.
Fantasy football managers may be willing to overlook Vikings RB Aaron Jones’ recent production woes, as the Giants allow 5.6 yards per carry (32nd). Will Jones get enough volume, though? Could Sunday’s game script allow Minnesota to lean on the run?
Below, we’ll answer those questions and more, including a verdict on whether to start or sit Jones while utilizing his stat projections from PrizePicks.
Week 16 RB Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Vikings RB Aaron Jones vs. Giants
The Vikings racked up 32.5 points per game over the last two games, yet Jones still averaged only 8.6 fantasy points in full-PPR leagues during the span. Can he overcome a recent lack of production against one of the NFL’s worst rush defenses?
Why Start Aaron Jones?
Paired with ranking last in yards per carry allowed, New York surrenders 153.6 rushing yards per contest (31st) and 0.16 EPA per rush (31st), via SumerSports. This translates to big-time fantasy numbers, with opposing RBs amassing 28.9 fantasy points per game (31st), per Pro Football Reference.
Courtesy of ESPN, the G-Men rank 11th in pass rush win rate compared to Minnesota sitting 23rd in pass block win rate. Furthermore, Vikings LT Christian Darrisaw (knee), C Ryan Kelly (knee), and RT Brian O’Neill (heel) are dealing with injuries and were absent from Wednesday’s practice.
Avoiding the pass rush with a healthy rushing attack could become the Vikings’ strategy — especially if two starting tackles are absent.
The start or sit conundrum may boil down to usage, as Jones (53.2%) and Minnesota RB Jordan Mason (46.6%) have shared a near-even workload. Since Week 10, the former touts a 57.3% snap share compared to Mason’s 27.2% rate.
Rushing attempts remain nearly even, however, as Jones is totaling 13.0 carries per game versus Mason’s 10.5 since Week 14. The first-year Viking is still dominating red zone work, taking 66.7% of carries within the 5-yard line. Jones, has taken only 11.1% of the work, which is tied with QB J.J. McCarthy.
More snaps haven’t translated to more fantasy points for Jones, who logs just 9.6 fantasy PPG since Week 10.
The veteran tailback has netted 2.7 receptions per game over the last six games, crushing Mason’s 0.3 catches per contest during the span. With that said, 17.0 receiving yards a week since Week 10 is nothing to write home about.
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Verdict: Lack of Red Zone Work Leads to Sitting Jones
Regardless of league size, Jones could be a comfortable sit. His lack of red zone work causes too many sleepless nights.
In fact, the one-time Pro Bowler has only 3 TDs in the previous six games — two of which were receiving TDs. Mason remains a step ahead of Jones in efficiency, posting 4.6 yards per rushing attempt compared to the vet’s 4.4.
PrizePicks projects Jones with 56.5 rushing yards against the Giants and a 48.5-yard total for Mason.
Make NFL Picks on PrizePicks
Might a healthy snap share finally lead to more fantasy points from Jones? Mason’s superior efficiency on the ground and red zone work causes hesitation.
Make your picks for the Vikings’ backfield at PrizePicks, where you have a chance to win real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and earn cash if you're right.
Check out the Playbook throughout the season for more NFL picks, predictions, and news every day.
