Tonight, we get a Mountain West Championship rematch as UNLV steps onto Boise State's blue turf. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Boise State wants to go out on top, as this will be the last time they compete in the Mountain West before heading to the Pac-12. UNLV has never beaten BSU as a member of the Mountain West, and this is its last chance.
Below, we'll give you our UNLV vs. Boise State prediction and Friday CFB picks on PrizePicks, including UNLV RB Jai’Den Thomas’ and Boise State QB Maddux Madsen’s player projections.
UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction, Preview for The Mountain West Championship
UNLV and Boise State will play each other for the 15th time, and it will be the second consecutive year they face off during the regular season and the Mountain West Championship. The Broncos have a 12-3 series advantage and won this year’s regular-season matchup by a score of 56-31.
The Rebels enter Friday's contest as 3.5-point road underdogs, returning a 2.63x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Broncos are home favorites with a 1.47x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Boise State -3.5
- Total: 57.5
- Game Winner Payout: Rebels 2.63x | Broncos 1.47x
UNLV Preview vs. Boise State
- The Rebels have lost ten straight to the Broncos, with the last win coming in 1976 when both were still Division II programs.
- UNLV got into this game thanks to a computer. With a four-way tie between UNLV, Boise State, San Diego State, and New Mexico, with no head-to-head matchups, the tiebreakers were determined using nationally recognized metrics, including Connelly SP+ and ESPN SOR.
- The Rebels have the best offense in the Mountain West, averaging 37.1 points per game.
- UNLV’s defense ranks seventh, allowing 25.9 points per game.
Boise State Preview vs. UNLV
- Regardless of the outcome, Boise State will be the most successful program during its time in the Mountain West. Since joining the conference in 2011, they have made the most appearances in the conference championship (nine) and the most wins (five) of any other program.
- QB Maddux Madsen will return for this game after missing the last four with a leg injury. The Broncos went 2-2 in his absence.
- Boise State is 7-0 against UNLV at home.
- The Broncos have won 15 straight home games in which Madsen was the team’s leading passer.
UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction, Picks for Mountain West Championship
Here are some player picks to monitor for PrizePicks' real-money college football game, including Madsen’s and Thomas’ player picks.
UNLV RB Jai’Den Thomas Projection: 74.5 Rushing Yards
- Thomas has more than 74 rushing yards in two of his last three games.
- The shifty back is third in the Mountain West with 944 rushing yards.
- Boise State ranks eighth in the Mountain West in rushing yards allowed per game to conference opponents (162.3).
- According to PFF, the Broncos rank 125th in run defense grade (68.5).
- The 5'9", 190 junior ranks fourth in PFF with a run grade of (91.8).
- Thomas is second among running backs, averaging 4.9 yards after contact.
- BSU is allowing 3.7 yards after contact, which ranks 129th.
Boise State RB Dylan Riley Projection: 79.5 Rushing Yards
- Riley rushed for a career-high 201 yards against UNLV in the 56-31 Week 8 win.
- The sophomore ranks second in rushing yards against conference opponents (828).
- The Rebels rank 11th in rushing yards allowed per game (187.1) and yards per carry (5.2) to Mountain West opponents.
- The Broncos rank 35th in yards per carry before contact (2.3)
- UNLV allows 3.2 rushing yards before contact, which ranks 137th.
- Riley’s 5.7 yards after contact against the Rebels was the highest against a Mountain West opponent.
Boise State QB Maddux Madsen Projection: 236.5 Passing Yards
- This will be Madsen’s first game since November 1, when he left the matchup against Fresno State with a leg injury.
- This injury may impede Madsen’s ability to move in the pocket and avoid UNLV’s 36th-ranked pressure rate (36.2%).
- The junior has thrown for fewer than 236 yards in two of three career matchups against UNLV.
- The Rebels’ pass defense has improved lately, allowing just 189.0 passing yards per game and a 114.7 passer rating over their last four contests, as compared to 274.5 yards and a 140.1 rating in their first eight.
- Inclement weather is a possibility, which could make it difficult to pass, and the Broncos could rely more on the run game.
Make UNLV vs. Boise State Picks on PrizePicks
It’s the end of an era as the Rebels and Broncos clash for the final time in the Mountain West. Boise State will try to be the MW champs for the sixth time, while UNLV will go for its first.
No matter who you think will take Friday’s matchup, you can win real money with your UNLV vs. Boise State predictions on PrizePicks as you tune in.
Simply pick your players — from Thomas to Madsen — predict More or Less on their projected stats, and win cash if you're right. It's that easy.
