Texans vs. Patriots Prediction, Picks for NFL Divisional Round Game

The No. 5 Houston Texans (13-5) travel to Foxborough to face the No. 2 New England Patriots (15-3) on Sunday afternoon in the AFC Divisional Round. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.

New England has been this season's Cinderella story, winning 14 games in the regular season after a disastrous 2024. QB Drake Maye looks to lead his team to its first AFC Championship Game since 2018, while Houston aims to reach the conference title game for the first time in franchise history after dismantling the Steelers, 30–6, in the Wild Card Round.

Below, we’ll break down our Texans vs. Patriots prediction and Divisional Round picks to consider. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right.

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Texans vs. Patriots Prediction, Spread, Over/Under

Sunday marks the 16th all-time meeting between the Texans and Patriots, with New England holding an 11–4 series edge entering this AFC Divisional Round matchup. The Patriots have won both prior playoff meetings against Houston, including a 41–28 Divisional Round victory in 2012.

On the injury front, the Texans ruled out star WR Nico Collins (concussion), while WR Justin Watson (concussion) and RT Trent Brown (ankle) are listed as questionable. 

The Patriots list LB Harold Landry (knee) and RB Terrell Jennings (concussion) as questionable, though CB Christian Gonzalez has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to suit up against a depleted Houston receiving corps.

Texans vs. Patriots Over/Under, Spread

The Texans enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point road underdogs, returning a 2.38x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

The Patriots are home favorites with a 1.51x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

• Spread: New England Patriots -3.5
• Over/Under: 41.5
• Game Winner Payout: Texans 2.38x | Patriots 1.51x

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction on Spread

Here are some stats to help you get ready for Texans vs. Patriots.

• New England boasts the NFL's best against-the-spread record this season at 12-5-1 (70.6%), while Houston is 10-8 ATS (55.6%).
• The Patriots covered at a solid 55.6% clip at home (5-4-1 ATS), while the Texans posted a 5-4 ATS mark on the road.
• Houston's offense ranks 23rd in EPA per play at -0.02, according to SumerSports, but finished the regular season 13th in total scoring at 24.1 points per game (PPG).
• The Texans' elite defense is the best in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.13) and ceded just 16.7 PPG, the fewest in the league.
• New England's defense allows 17.9 PPG (third-fewest) and 290.3 yards per game (sixth-fewest).

Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round Picks

Here are three Texans vs. Patriots picks for Sunday's Divisional Round playoff game. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QBs Drake Maye and C.J. Stroud and TE Hunter Henry.

Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Texans Projection: 66.1 Completion Percentage

• Maye led the NFL with a 72% completion rate in 2025 and completed 71.8% of his passes at Gillette Stadium across nine games.
• He ranks first in completion percentage over expected at +9.1%.​
• The Patriots' QB1 excels against zone coverage with a 74.5% completion rate and 103.1 passer rating, and the Texans play zone on 74.7% of snaps.
• Despite a rough first half against the Chargers (40% completion rate), Maye rebounded by going 11-of-14 (78.6%) after halftime.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. Patriots Projection: 207.5 Pass Yards

• Stroud averages 217.2 passing yards per game (YPG) and has cleared 207.5 yards in eight of 15 starts, including 250 in last week’s Wild Card win over Pittsburgh.
• The Patriots' pass defense ranks ninth in the NFL, allowing 189.4 passing YPG, but yet has still yielded 208+ yards to opposing QBs eight times.
• Stroud nets 8.0 air yards per attempt (16th in NFL), and the Texans run 36.1 pass plays per game (12th).​
• The Texans' QB1 has surged down the stretch, averaging 222 passing yards on 29.4 attempts with 7.6 yards per attempt. On the road in that span, he’s at 247 yards on 30 attempts with 8.2 YPA.

Patriots TE Hunter Henry vs. Texans Projection: 38.5 Receiving Yards

• Henry averages 45.2 receiving YPG  and has topped 38.5 yards in 11 contests, including 64 yards on three catches in last week’s Wild Card win over the Chargers.​
• According to SumerSports, among TEs with 250+ routes run, Henry's 69.0% catch rate ranks 12th, and his 18.05% target share ranks seventh among all TEs.​
• The Texans allowed 792 receiving yards to TEs, surrendering 44.0 YPG and 5.0 receptions per game.​
• Henry is second on the Patriots with 92 targets and an 18.1% target share, while ranking 11th among TEs in receptions (60) and seventh in receiving yards (768).

NFL Divisional Round PrizePicks Promo: CJ Stroud - 0.5 Yards

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How to Use the C.J. Stroud Max Discount: NFL Divisional Round Promo

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Make Texans vs. Patriots Picks on PrizePicks

When Houston and New England kick off Sunday, there will be plenty of opportunities to build Divisional Round picks.

You can make your NFL picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states. 

Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, and news.

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