It’s an open secret in the fantasy football punditry community that start ‘em, sit ‘ems are an inexact science.
Sometimes we use the numbers to suss out our weekly plays and avoids, and sometimes we use the eye test, and sometimes we use our gut, and sometimes we steal from other pundits. (Not me, of course. I’d never steal from other pundits. I do, however, know of other pundits who steal from other pundits, but that's for an off-line discussion.)
When you have an inexact science, you experiment, and today I’m going to do just that, utilizing only one metric to make my suggestions for Week 6, that metric being yards allowed.
It’s an overly simple formula: Quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends facing teams that have given tons o’ yards through the air top that list at those positions, while running backs playing against squads who, numerically, can’t stop the rush get the thumbs up.
Easy. Logical. Elegant. That said, I’ve instituted a couple of simple rules:
- In terms of start ‘ems, no obviousness. Like if the numbers might say, “Start Josh Allen,” you’ll all be like, “We know, dummy,” so I’ll go to the next guy on the list.
- In terms of sit ‘ems, no silliness. Like even though the numbers might say, “Take a pass on Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase,” I won’t take a pass on Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase.
Now let’s see what the numbers have to say for themselves.
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NFL Week 6 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
(All fantasy points and rankings via FantasyPros.)
Rams QB Matthew Stafford: Start ‘Em
Rams @ Ravens - 1:00 p.m. ET
The Ravens have given up 1,313 yards through the air, second to the Cowboys, who sit at 1,423. But the Cowboys play the Panthers, and I can’t, in good conscience, recommend Carolina QB Bryce Young to start anything, ever.
Besides, Stafford is fantasy’s QB8 this season, and he’s coming off of killer back-to-back performances — 27.4 fantasy points in Week 4 (QB2), then 25.6 in Week 5 (QB8) — and a third-consecutive big week against a Baltimore squad that was embarrassed in Week 5 by Houston QB C.J. Stroud to the tune of 4 TDs is a distinct possibility.
Matthew Stafford PrizePicks Projection: 248.5 Pass Yards, 1.5 Pass TDs
Packers QB Jordan Love: Start ‘Em
Packers vs. Bengals - 4:25 p.m. ET
And speaking of teams that got crushed by an opposing QB in Week 5, say hello to the Cincinnati Bengals, who saw Detroit signal caller Jared Goff drop 3 tuddies and a near-perfect 153.0 QBR on their butts.
Love’s been somewhat of a letdown this season, currently perched at QB15, but he’s coming off of a bye week which was preceded by a 26.3 fantasy point explosion against another terrible pass offense, those aforementioned Cowboys.
So there's a hungry QB licking his chops, and I think he’s wearing green and yellow.
Jordan Love PrizePicks Projection: 231.5 Pass Yards, 6.5 Rush Yards
Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.: Sit ‘Em
Falcons vs. Buffalo - 7:15 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
Aside from the fact that the Bills have allowed a paltry 770 yards through the air, they’re likely super-pissed off about their Sunday night 23-20 loss to the Patriots. That could mean Falcons sophomore field general Michael Penix Jr. gets. a big ol' peace out.
The Buffalo offense is probably pissed, too, so it might not be a terrible idea to throw Mr. Hailee Steinfeld — a.k.a., QB Josh Allen — into your fantasy lineup. Then again, it’s never a terrible idea to throw Mr. Hailee Steinfeld into your fantasy lineup.
Michael Penix Jr. PrizePicks Projection: 228.5 Pass Yards, 4.5 Rush Yards
Bengals QB Jake Browning: Sit ‘Em
Bengals @ Packers - 4:25 p.m. ET
It’s not like you’d start the Bengals’ snakebitten backup QB anyhow — dude’s QB28, f’r cryin’ out loud — but against Packers EDGE Micah Parsons and Green Bay’s fourth-ranked pass D, he's not even worth a contrarian dart-throw.
Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty: Start ‘Em
Raiders vs. Titans - 4:05 p.m. ET
Despite the existence of QB Cam Ward, somehow, some way, the Tennessee Titans stole a game last Sunday, dropping 16 fourth-quarter points on the Cardinals for a 22-21 road upset.
But their rush defense is still as thin as one-ply TP, allowing a ridiculous average of 146.8 yards per game (YPG).
Over the last two weeks, rookie RB Ashton Jeanty has gotten in touch with his inner Bijan Robinson, averaging 131 all-purpose yards over the past two games — a number that seems eminently repeatable.
Ashton Jeanty PrizePicks Projection: 69.5 Rush Yards
Rams RB Kyren Williams: Start ‘Em
Rams vs. Ravens - 1:00 p.m. ET
Remember a few capsules ago when we pooped all over the Ravens’ pass defense? Welp, their run D is just as garbage, giving up 732 yards (30th in the league).
Last Sunday, they allowed eight Houston rushers — that’s right, eight — to post a combined 167 yards.
Admittedly, Rams RB Kyren Williams has yet to top 100 yards in a game here in ‘25, but where better place to start than against a legitimately bad Baltimore unit?
Bengals RB Chase Brown: Sit ‘Em
Bengals @ Packers - 4:25 p.m. ET
Coming into my fantasy drafts, I had Bengals RB Chase Brown ranked pretty darn high up on my board, which made sense at the time, as he finished 2024 as RB10. But there was always a more appealing available option when Brown was on deck — Bucky Irving, Omarion Hampton, that sort of thing — so I missed out. And for that, I’m eternally grateful, as the University of Illinois product sits at RB42 (!) with a total fantasy output of 31.5 points (!!).
Like his buddy Browning, Brown is stuck dealing with Parsons, so it could be a long, long day for one of the year’s biggest fantasy stiffs.
Chase Brown PrizePicks Projection: 42.5 Rush Yards
Steelers RB Jaylen Warren: Sit ‘Em
Steelers vs. Browns - 1:00 p.m. ET
The Browns’ second-ranked defense is as good as their 27th-ranked offense is bad — that awkward sentence makes sense to you, right? — and they’re one week removed from allowing a mere 97 rushing yards to the Minnesota Vikings.
I know Cleveland might have a jet-lag hangover from their trip Week 5 trek to London, but Warren hasn’t topped 47 rushing yards this season, so no thank you.
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan: Start ‘Em
Panthers vs. Cowboys - 1:00 p.m. ET
Hey, did I mention Dallas’ defense is yucky? I did? Well, it bears a second mention: Dallas’ defense is yucky.
WR Tet McMillan, however, has had moments of relative yumminess, seeing no less than 8 targets per game in each of his five outings in a Panthers uni. He hasn’t had a breakout outing, but the opportunities have been there, and this might just be the week the former University of Arizona standout takes advantage.
Tetairoa McMillan PrizePicks Projection: 66.5 Receiving Yards
Packers WR Matthew Golden: Start ‘Em
Packers vs. Bengals - 4:25 p.m. ET
If Jordan Love is going to blow up a scoreboard, by the transitive property, so will one of his receivers. It’s a crapshoot as to which Packers WR is going to be Love’s guy on any given week, but rookie Golden has seen his target numbers climb each of the past three games (2, 4, 5), so against the hunk of Swiss cheese known as the Cincinnati Bengals defense, this might be the speedster’s coming out party.
Falcons WR Drake London: Sit ‘Em
Falcons vs. Bills - 7:15 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
To quote me from about 300 words ago, “Aside from the fact that the Bills have allowed a paltry 770 yards through the air, they’re likely super-pissed off about their Sunday night 23-20 loss to the Patriots.That could mean Falcons sophomore field general Michael Penix Jr. gets. a big ol' peace out.”
So…that.
Drake London PrizePicks Projection: 73.5 Receiving Yards
Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers: Sit ‘Em
Raiders vs. Titans - 4:05 p.m. ET
For all of their faults, the Titans have one helluva pass D, sitting second in fewest yards allowed (743).
Raiders WR1 Jakobi Meyers hasn’t been super-impressive this season, hauling in 25 of his 39 targets (ugh) for 290 yards, and exactly zero TDs.
Good D. Lousy WR. Take a pass. Please.
Packers TE Tucker Kraft: Start ‘Em
Packers vs. Bengals - 4:25 p.m. ET
As noted above, Jordan Love’s favorite pass catcher is a movable feast, but staring down that Pop Warner-level Bengals D, they might all his favorite pass catchers.
Kraft has been a happy surprise, currently ranking TE6 for the season, ahead of Arizona’s Trey McBride, Kansas City’s Travis Kelce, and Detroit’s Sam LaPorta. Dayum.
A fifth-straight game of 4+ targets could be a thing. So could making the Bengals linebackers look silly.
Tucker Kraft PrizePicks Projection: 46.5 Receiving Yards
Buccaneers TE Cade Otton: Start ‘Em
Buccaneers vs. 49ers - 1:00 p.m. ET
It’s nothing personal, but I don’t like Bucs TE Cade Otton.
Okay, actually, it’s entirely personal. Whenever I throw the dude in my fantasy lineup, he tanks. Every. Single. Time.
But the Niners pass D blows — they give up a league-worst 290.6 YPG — and he has to have a good fantasy game eventually, right? Right? Right?
Raiders TE Brock Bowers: Sit ‘Em
Raiders vs. Titans - 4:05 p.m. ET
This is a tough one, as Vegas’ sophomore Brock Bowers is an elite TE, but that Titans pass D is a pain in the tushie, and Bowers is banged up, so even if he takes the field, he could be limited.
Me, I’m keeping Bowers out of my lineups until he regains his form. And methinks we might be a ways away from that theoretical eventuality.
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: Sit ‘Em
Falcons vs. Bills - 7:15 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
Did I mention the Bills are quite likely pissed about their Week 5 loss? I did? Well, I’m gonna mention it again.
The Bills are quite likely pissed about their Week 5 loss. I wouldn’t want to be a Falcon this week, nor would I want to be a fantasy manager with a roster filled with Atlantans.
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