This week’s six-game Wild Card Round slate kicks off on Saturday, featuring a doubleheader between the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) and the Carolina Panthers (8-9) at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX. The opening matchup is followed by the Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) against the Chicago Bears (11-6) in the 8:00 p.m. ET spotlight on Prime Video.
The Rams are notable favorites on the road against perhaps the worst team in the playoff field, and an NFC North clash between the Packers and Bears could be one of the best games of the weekend.
Below, we’ll make Saturday NFL Wild Card game predictions on point spreads and over/unders on PrizePicks Team Picks.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers Prediction, Picks for Saturday
Date: Saturday, Jan. 10
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: FOX
Rams vs. Panthers Prediction on Over/Under
Rams vs. Panthers over/under, spread, and game winner payouts are via PrizePicks Team Picks. All projections are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Game Winner Payout: Rams 1.14x | Panthers 4.76x
Spread: Rams -10.5
Over/Under: 46.5
In the previous 10 games, the over is 7-3 for the Rams, but the under is 7-3 for Carolina in the same split. Which side of this trend could keep up in the first game of Wild Card Weekend?
The Panthers may be the worst team in the 14-team playoff field, sporting -0.04 EPA per play on offense (tied for 25th) while ceding 0.05 EPA per play on defense (23rd), via SumerSports. If Carolina is to contend in the postseason, it could look to cut possessions by playing at a slow pace.
Carolina features a 45.6% rush-play rate (10th), 59.5 plays per contest (11th-fewest), and 30.1 seconds per play (tied for 11th-highest). Sharp Football Analysis lists a neutral dropback (DB) rate stat, assessing how often teams run pass plays in neutral situations. The Panthers sport a 56.4% neutral DB rate (eighth-lowest), emphasizing a slow pace.
Saturday’s contest is a clash of contrasting styles, as the Rams tout 28.9 seconds per play (sixth-fewest) and a 62.4% neutral DB rate (seventh). WR Davante Adams' return to the lineup may further encourage them to sling the rock.
Backed by a home-field advantage, the Panthers have a path to making this a slow-paced, ugly game as 10.5-point dogs. That means running the rock in bulk, and L.A. surrenders 4.3 yards per rushing attempt (19th) compared to 6.8 yards per pass (12th).
Carolina’s concerning 18.3 points per game (27th) and 5.0 yards per play (26th) may not bode well for a high-scoring affair.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Prediction, Picks for Saturday
Date: Saturday, Jan. 10
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Packers vs. Bears Prediction on Spread
Packers vs. Bears over/under, spread, and game winner payouts are via PrizePicks Team Picks. All projections are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Game Winner Payout: Packers 1.78x | Bears 1.96x
Spread: Packers -2.5
Over/Under: 43.5
The Packers and Bears each stumbled into the playoffs, as Green Bay is on a four-game losing streak and Chicago carries a 2-3 record in the last five. This is the first Bears home playoff game since 2019, meaning Chicago fans should provide a ruckus environment.
In home games this season, the Bears boast a 6-2 record. The NFC North rivals split their two-game series, but Chicago won the most recent clash in Week 16 at home (22-16). Green Bay QB Jordan Love exited with a concussion, posting only a 36.1% snap share.
The Bears’ 150 rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry from then could be their angle to a win here. Even in Week 14’s 28-21 loss against the Packers, Chicago still racked up 138 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per carry. Green Bay surrenders 4.2 yards per rush (12th) compared to 6.4 yards per pass (sixth). They also yield -0.03 EPA per run (tied for 17th).
The ground game is the Bears’ identity, proven by a lofty 45.8% rush-play rate (ninth) and 4.9 yards per carry (third). When reaching at least 130 rushing yards in a game, Chicago is 8-2. The Bears have surpassed 130 rushing yards in both meetings with Green Bay, totaling 144.0 rushing yards per contest.
Saturday’s forecast is calling for cold weather with some rain and snow. This one could simply boil down to the run game and toughness.
Chicago carries one of the league’s best offensive lines, ranking first in ESPN’s pass block win rate and fifth in run block win rate. This could be the best unit on the field.
Make Saturday NFL Wild Card Picks on PrizePicks
Ground games and physicality can control postseason football. We might see just that in Saturday’s two-game line, as the Panthers may look to slow their matchup while the Bears potentially lean on their strengths at home.
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