NFL Week 9 begins on Thursday Night Football tonight, which pits the Ravens vs. Dolphins, with both teams fighting to stay alive in the 2025 season.
The Ravens (2-5) head down to Miami, with QB Lamar Jackson returning to start for the first time since Week 5, to take on the (2-6) Dolphins in a TNF matchup set to kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Below, we'll give you our top Ravens vs. Dolphins prediction for TNF tonight, including the top NFL picks on PrizePicks on Thursday night for Lamar, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, and WR Jaylen Waddle.
The last time these two AFC teams squared off was back in 2023 and the Ravens laid a whopping 56 points on the Dolphins. This time, the Ravens are struggling, but will look to get back on the right track in Miami.
Let's get into our Ravens vs. Dolphins picks and predictions for Thursday night, plus PrizePicks NFL analysis.
Ravens vs. Dolphins Prediction for TNF, Week 9
Coach Mike McDaniel's Dolphins have completely lost their sense of direction, sitting at 2-6 with the Bills looming in Week 10, following this game. A loss to the Ravens tonight followed by another to Buffalo would bury Miami at 2-8, pushing them firmly into draft‑pick competition territory rather than playoff contention.
With WR Tyreek Hill already done for the year, the offense has lost its spark, and the season risks unraveling into a full reset as a franchise.
For the Ravens, the outlook is different but just as urgent. Injuries derailed what should have been one of the NFL’s most talented rosters early on, but there’s no more room for excuses. Baltimore has to put its head down and fight if it wants back into the postseason race.
A win tonight after beating the Bears in Week 8 would set the tone. With upcoming matchups against the Jets, Browns, and Bengals, there’s a legitimate path to claw their way back into the playoff picture, especially as they enter the week only two games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3).
Ravens Preview vs. Dolphins
The Baltimore Ravens have endured a disappointing 2025 campaign, marred by injuries and defensive struggles. With QB Lamar Jackson sidelined since Week 4 and several key defenders also missing time, the Ravens have struggled just to get to 2-5. Last week's win was their first since Week 2.
Defensively, they’ve been a liability, ranking 28th in the NFL in dropback EPA allowed and 30th in overall EPA per play. They were riddled with injuries but are finally healthy again after the bye week, as they get back Lamar, LB Roquan Smith, and CB Marlon Humphrey.
The path to the postseason is narrow, but by no means is it closed. If Baltimore can string wins together down the stretch vs. beatable opponents, they still have a solid chance to sneak into the playoff picture. However, remaining healthy seems like the bigger task for them. As they enter Week 9, they should be happy to be as healthy as they are.
Dolphins Preview vs. Ravens
The Miami Dolphins’ season has spiraled into chaos after losing star wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and their record has plummeted to 2-6 despite entering the year with high expectations for one of the league’s previously most electric offenses.
That offense now ranks 21st in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, as Tua is averaging 170 passing yards per game over his last three games.
Losses to struggling teams like the Panthers and Browns have only intensified the noise around McDaniels' job security and raised questions about Tagovailoa’s leadership under a massive contract.
The defense has been just as problematic, as they rank 27th in EPA per play allowed and 30th in EPA per dropback. What was once a promising roster is now a team in free fall it seems. Where the Ravens have playoff hopes, the Dolphins seem far from them
Ravens vs. Dolphins Picks for Thursday Night Football
Here are the top Ravens vs. Dolphins picks for TNF tonight on the PrizePicks real-money NFL game, including QB Lamar Jackson and Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle as the Ravens begin their impossible path to the playoffs.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson vs. Dolphins Projection: 231.5 Passing Yards
- Lamar Jackson is slated to finally return from his extended injury absence, as he last played in Week 4's loss to the Chiefs.
- Don't be too concerned with Jackson's health; Jackson has practiced since Monday, and likely sat out on Sunday to play in this game.
- In his last three meetings against the Miami Dolphins (2021–2023), Jackson has surpassed his passing projection of 233.5 yards in every contest.
- In primetime games, Lamar has been reliable as a passer, averaging, 235.5 passing yards across his last 10 appearances and clearing his projection 60% of the time.
- The Dolphins defense has been beatable this year, ranking 27th in EPA per play and 30th in EPA per dropback on defense.
- Jackson has passed downfield when he has played this year, with an average depth of target of 9.6 yards — 4th among QBs.
- The dual-threat QB is from the Miami area (Pompano Beach), which should give some extra excitement for this matchup.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. Ravens Projection: 218.5 Passing Yards
- Tua Tagovailoa has struggled mightily to meet his passing yard projections in 2025.
- He’s failed to clear 216.5 yards in six of eight games, averaging just 189.8 passing yards on the season.
- Primetime hasn’t been kind to him either, over his last 10 primetime games, he’s gone less than his passing projection 70% of the time, averaging only 211.7 passing yards.
- Miami’s passing efficiency ranks 24th in EPA per dropback and 25th in EPA per play and this is a direct reflection on how Tua has been under center this season.
- The Ravens defense is healthier than it has been all season long, including in the secondary which has been missing some pieces early this year.
Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle vs. Ravens Projection: 64.5 Receiving Yards
- With Tyreek Hill sidelined for the season, Jaylen Waddle steps into the clear WR1 role.
- In games without Hill this season, he’s averaged 79.8 receiving yards, topping 100 yards in nearly three contests.
- Across those games Waddle is averaging nearly 7 catches per outing, a clear uptick in potential production.
- Slated to be across from Waddle, Marlon Humphrey, a 2017 first‑round pick now in decline. Humphrey ranks 107th of 116 cornerbacks in coverage via PFF, allowing a 127.1 passer rating and nearly 14 yards per reception on just 199 coverage snaps.
- Waddle ranks 13th in PFF receiving grade this season.
- Since Week 5 — his first start without Hill in the Lineup — Waddle ranks eighth in the NFL in weighted opportunity rating, per FTN.
- In those four games, Waddle has 90+ yards in three of them, only missing that number in a 31-6 disaster game vs. the Browns.
Make Ravens vs. Dolphins Picks for TNF on PrizePicks
The Ravens will look to get a must-win with their backs against the wall and win out to hopefully sneak into the playoffs. On TNF, they'll get back QB Lamar Jackson to try to make that happen vs. the struggling Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will try to stay breathing with a win here — or take another step toward an inevitable dismantling with a loss.
This Thursday Night Football matchup is a perfect spot to make NFL picks on PrizePicks to win real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their weekly stat projections, and cash in if your picks are correct.
Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the NFL season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and NFL DFS Lineups.
