On Sunday, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots seek to clinch their first Super Bowl appearance of the decade.
Denver turns to former Patriots QB Jarrett Stidham, making the start in place of Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in a 33-30 victory over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. New England, meanwhile, hits the road for the first time this postseason following double-digit victories over the Los Angeles Chargers (16-3) and Houston Texans (28-16).
Let’s look at a Patriots vs. Broncos spread prediction for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High, kicking off at 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make NFL playoff predictions.
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Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Denver aims to beat New England for the third time in the AFC Championship Game. The Broncos defeated the Patriots 26-16 in 2013 and held on for a 20-18 victory back in 2015. Denver's last Super Bowl triumph was after the latter win, whereas New England hasn't reached the big game since 2018.
New England shocked Denver in its last visit to Mile High, 26-23, in head coach Sean Payton’s first season as Broncos head coach.
Patriots vs. Broncos Over/Under, Spread
The Patriots enter this matchup as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.4x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Broncos are home underdogs with a 2.7x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: New England Patriots -3.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Game Winner Payout: Patriots 1.4x | Broncos 2.7x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you set for the AFC Championship Game, including insights on our Patriots vs. Broncos spread prediction.
- Denver won both of its 2025-26 games in the home underdog role against the Green Bay Packers (34-26) and Kansas City Chiefs (22-19).
- New England rides a five-game winning streak, covering the spread each time.
- The Patriots haven’t allowed more than a single TD in four straight games. The Broncos scored 3 TDs last Saturday against Buffalo.
- Stidham steps in for Nix, who finished his second season throwing for 3,931 yards before a 279-yard performance in the Divisional Round. Nix ranked 18th in adjusted EPA per play — 11th out of 14 playoff QBs.
- The Patriots compiled a 4-0 record as road favorites, covering three times. With that said, thee four teams they beat didn't make the playoffs (Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, and New Orleans Saints).
- Denver has won each of its last 11 one-score games since losing in the final seconds to the Chargers in Week 3.
- Patriots QB Drake Maye leads the league in adjusted EPA per play. The Broncos have faced five QBs ranked in the top 10 of that metric, owning a 4-1 record.
- The Patriots are 5-1 vs. top-10 passing defenses. Maye averaged 236.3 yards in those contests, including a 179-yard effort against the Texans.
- In the last seven games, the Broncos boast a 5-2 run on the over, while the Patriots are 6-1.
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Make Patriots vs. Broncos Picks on PrizePicks
The first bid for Super Bowl LX will be handed out on Sunday afternoon as the Broncos and Patriots battle in the AFC Championship Game. There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every NFL moment than with PrizePicks.
You can make Patriots vs. Broncos picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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