North Carolina vs. California Prediction, Picks for Friday College Football

The four-game Friday college football card closes out in the Bay Area as the struggling North Carolina Tar Heels (2-3) face the upstart California Golden Bears (4-2). 

Bill Belichick’s squad is seeking its first conference victory, while all three losses have come by 28 or more points. The Golden Bears look for their first 5-2 start since 2015 and second ACC win.

Let’s dive into this North Carolina vs. California prediction for this ACC battle, kicking off at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN this Friday.

North Carolina vs. California Prediction, Friday CFB Picks

Many will argue that Belichick’s first season in Chapel Hill has been nothing short of disastrous. UNC’s two victories are over a 1-5 Charlotte squad and an FCS club in Richmond. 

The Tar Heels haven’t been competitive in their losses, falling by 34 to TCU, 25 to UCF, and 28 to Clemson.

In their first season in the ACC, the Golden Bears finished 2-6, while starting 0-4. This season, Cal rallied past Boston College to capture its conference opener, 28-24. 

Cal jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Duke two weeks ago, but the Blue Devils outscored the Golden Bears, 45-7 the rest of the way in a 45-21 rout.

North Carolina Tar Heels

• UNC’s offense sits 118th in the country in Net EPA/Play and ranks 125th in EPA/Pass.
• The Tar Heels are the only ACC team to score 14 or less points in three games this season. 
• The defense is slightly better than the offense, ranking 95th in Net EPA/Play.

California Golden Bears 

• Cal’s defense has been impressive, sitting 33rd in EPA/Play. Four of five FBS offenses facing the Golden Bears this season rank 66th or worse in EPA/Play.
• RB Kendrick Raphael has eclipsed 100 rushing yards twice this season, but has also been limited to 42 or fewer rushing yards in three games.
• Cal has an opportunity to move to 3-1 in ACC play the next two games against UNC and Virginia Tech before facing Virginia and Louisville.

North Carolina vs. California Picks & CFB DFS

California QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Projection: 261.5 Passing Yards

• The freshman has been the model of consistency this season, throwing for at least 230 yards in five of six games.
• Sagapolutele has reached this projection twice this year, both times at home facing, respectively, Texas Southern and Minnesota. 
• UNC hasn’t allowed more than 250 passing yards in a game since yielding 284 to TCU’s Josh Hoover in the season opener.
• The Tar Heels are 93rd defensively in EPA/Pass, but the Golden Bears place 106th on the offensive side.

North Carolina RB Demon June Projection: 43.5 Rushing Yards

• June leads the Tar Heels in rushing yards with 266 this season, but 148 of those yards came against Richmond in Week 3.
• The freshman was held to 16 yards on 5 carries in a 38-10 blowout to Clemson before the bye week.
• June has eclipsed this projection in three of four games, even though he has not received more than 10 carries against an FBS opponent.
• In each of the last four games, the leading rusher against Cal has posted at least 61 yards on the ground.

California WR Jacob De Jesus Projection: 54.5 Receiving Yards

• De Jesus finished last season at UNLV with 36 receptions in 13 games, but has already hauled in 34 receptions in six games at Cal.
• In both ACC games, De Jesus has bypassed this projection, racking up 61 yards against Boston College and 56 yards in the loss to Duke.
• Although De Jesus is second on the Golden Bears in receiving yards, he leads the team in targets with 54.
• UNC has given up more than 100 yards to three different receivers this season.

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North Carolina heads to Berkeley trying to save face following a subpar start in Belichick’s debut season on the sidelines. The Tar Heels face a Cal squad that will be eager to rebound after getting blown out by Duke.

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