As hard as it is to believe, we’re already creeping toward the halfway point of the 2025 NFL season. Things are happening fast, and we've got four weeks of data to dig into to find our NFL Week 5 predictions, as we'll highlight the best matchups for QB, RB, WR, and TE to find top PrizePicks NFL picks.
The marquee game of Week 5 features the Ravens — without QB Lamar Jackson — taking on the Texans. Both teams sit at 1-3, and history shows that starting 1-4 virtually erases pretty much any realistic playoff hopes. With the margin for error already razor-thin, this matchup will define the season outlook for both teams.
Week 5 isn’t your typical slate, either. Injuries continue to pile up and are set to drastically influence game plans and DFS lineups.
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy remains sidelined. Longtime veteran Joe Flacco has officially been benched, Jayden Daniels will return vs. the Chargers, and all of these quarterback changes will ripple across player projections, play-calling, and fantasy football outcomes.
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This NFL Week 5 Cheat Sheet is your ultimate resource for the top matchups for NFL DFS, projections to target, and insights for the Week 5 main slate, including PrizePicks NFL picks.
NFL Week 5 Predictions & Cheat Sheet for PrizePicks, NFL DFS
Find the top Week 5 predictions, picks, matchups to target, and players to target for NFL Week 5 below in the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet, including player picks for NFL DFS.
- RB Predictions, Matchups: Week 5
- Best WR vs. CB Matchups to Target: Week 5
- OL/DL Mismatches to Target
- Best TE Predictions, Matchups for Week 5
Best RB Predictions, Matchups for Week 5
Here are the top RB picks for NFL Week 5, including PrizePicks projections to target for NFL DFS
Saints RB Alvin Kamara vs. Giants
The New York Giants have fielded one of the league’s worst run defenses to start the season. They rank 31st out of 32 teams in yards per carry allowed (6.1), surrendering 153 rushing yards per game and already giving up 6 rush TDs — the third-worst mark in the NFL.
Their 0.19 EPA per rush is worst in the NFL by a wide margin (31st at 0.12), per Sumer Sports.
On the other side of this matchup, Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been one of the few bright spots for the Saints offense. He ranks top 10 in carries in the NFL and sits inside the top 15 in rushing yards with 256.
He also ranks top 15 in forced missed tackles and explosive runs of 10+ yards, per PFF, with 7 such carries so far this year. This sets up a huge opportunity for Kamara against a New York front that can get pressure on the QB, but can't stop the run.
Lastly, the Saints are committed to the run with QB Spencer Rattler under center. Their 27th ranked pass-rate over expectation (-6.3%), implies they will continue to pound the rock regardless of game flow.
Week 5 PrizePicks Pick: Alvin Kamara – 58.5 Rush Yards, 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs
Panthers RB Rico Dowdle vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins have struggled to stop the run, ranking 29th in yards per carry allowed (5.1) and 28th in rush TDs allowed (5). They’re giving up over 5 yards per carry and have been among the worst defenses in the league at limiting efficiency on the ground, ranking 30th in EPA per rush (0.12).
With RB1 Chuba Hubbard ruled out, former Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle steps into a big opportunity, in line for a big share of the backfield touches. Dowdle was already playing around 40% of the snaps over the last two weeks, now he'll be the lead back.
In 2024, Dowdle ranked inside the top 15 in carries (235), rushing yards (1,079), and yards per attempt (4.6). Dowdle was also 11th in yards after contact per rush among RBs with at least 150 carries, per PFF.
He steps into a plus matchup vs. Miami for his first start in a Panthers uniform. After signing a 1-year, $2.75 million deal in the offseason following a 1,000-yard season, Dowdle has plenty to prove.
Week 5 PrizePicks Pick: Rico Dowdle – 61.5 Rush Yards
Best WR vs. CB Matchups to Target: Week 5
Here are the top WR vs. CB matchups to look to for NFL Week 5, including PrizePicks projections to target for NFL DFS.
Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Cowboys CBs
Say what you will about QB Justin Fields, but it's not affecting Jets WR Garrett Wilson. Wilson has started the 2025 season strong.
He ranks top 10 in the NFL targets with 35, leading all WRs with. a 36.5% target share, converting them into 27 receptions for 311 yards and 3 TDs.
When targeted, Wilson owns a stellar 120.1 passer rating and averages 11.5 yards per catch.
He’ll face a Cowboys defense that has been torched by opposing WRs. CB Kaiir Elam is allowing a 155.0 passer rating and nearly 14 yards per reception. Cowboys CB DaRon Bland, dealing with lingering injuries, hasn’t been much better, allowing a 127.9 passer rating and nearly 12 yards per catch.
The Cowboys are dead last in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) allowed per pass at 0.40 and yards allowed per game to WRs — and the Jets aren't far behind at 0.23 EPA/play. A back-and-forth pass-forward battle would put Wilson in a great spot to do numbers in Week 5.
To benefit Wilson further, he dominates zone defenses, which the Cowboys play at the second-highest rate in the NFL, per PFF.
Week 5 PrizePicks Pick: Garrett Wilson – 62.5 Receiving Yards
Bucs WR Chris Godwin vs. Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen
Bucs WR Chris Godwin wasted no time making his presence felt in his first game back from his 2024 season-ending ankle injury, commanding 10 targets while playing 81% of the snaps.
With WR Mike Evans still sidelined, Godwin is set to be the go-to option alongside rookie WR Emeka Egbuka once again against a Seattle secondary that has been shaky this season.
Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen is allowing a 120.1 passer rating and a massive 14.5 yards per reception, ranking 97th out of 103 qualifying corners in coverage, per PFF. Meanwhile, fellow CB Josh Jobe, an undrafted free agent from Alabama, hasn’t fared much better, ranking 79th out of 165 CBs, and 124th in passer rating allowed.
Week 5 PrizePicks Pick: Chris Godwin – 53.5 Receiving Yards
Best OL/DL Matchups to Target: Week 5
Here are the top OL vs. DL mismatches in NFL Week 5 games, including PrizePicks projections to target for NFL DFS based on the mismatches.
Saints OL vs. Giants DL
Despite being built around former first-round draft picks, the New Orleans Saints offensive line has underperformed through the early part of the season.
RT Taliese Fuaga has surrendered 13 pressures, 3 sacks, and drawn 2 penalties. First-round rookie LT Kelvin Banks Jr. has already allowed 16 pressures, 1 sack, and committed 3 penalties.
To make matters worse, OG Carlos Ruiz is ruled out, and had already struggled in pass blocking. His replacement, undrafted rookie Torricelli Simpkins, will step in despite ranking 70th out of 73 guards in the NFL according to PFF.
The Giants’ defensive line is stacked with pass rush talent, ranking fifth in pass-rush grade on PFF.
Top-five pick rookie EDGE Abdul Carter has recorded 19 total pressures and 11 QB hurries, placing him top 15 in both metrics. EDGE Brian Burns has racked up 20 pressures and 4 sacks, placing him firmly inside the top 10 in each category.
All-Pro interior DL Dexter Lawrence continues to dominate as well, ranking 25th out of 179 defensive tackles via PFF.
Week 5 PrizePicks Pick: Spencer Rattler – 200.5 Pass Yards or Alvin Kamara – 3 Receptions
Ravens OL vs. Texans DL
The Ravens' offensive line continues to struggle this season. LT Ronnie Stanley exited early in last week’s game and is currently listed as questionable, but he's been ineffective this year so far.
LG Andrew Vorhees has been inconsistent, allowing 8 pressures and 1 sack over 218 snaps. On the right side, RT Roger Rosengarten has given up 6 pressures and committed 2 penalties in 217 snaps, while RG Daniel Faalele has also allowed 6 pressures, 1 sack, and 2 penalties over 218 snaps.
It’s been a down year for a Ravens unit that sits at 1–3, and now will not have the benefit of a QB who can scramble out of the pocket, as QB Lamar Jackson is out.
He'll be replaced by Cooper Rush, who coincidentally was sacked 5 times vs. this Texans defense last year as a member of the Cowboys.
On the other side, the Texans’ defensive front is emerging as one of the best in the NFL, with no real weak links. The Texans rank third in pass rush grade, per PFF, racking up 2.8 sacks per game, tied for 7th best in the NFL.
EDGE Will Anderson Jr. leads the league in pressures with 25 and has tallied 3 sacks. Veteran pass rusher Danielle Hunter has 18 total pressures, including 12 QB hurries and 4 sacks, ranking top 15 in all three categories, per PFF.
On the interior, DT Sheldon Rankins is 20th among 179 interior defensive linemen overall, and 14th overall in total pressures (8).
Week 5 PrizePicks Pick: Cooper Rush – 178.5 Pass Yards
Best TE Predictions, Matchups for Week 5
Here are the top TE picks for NFL Week 5, including PrizePicks projections to target.
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert vs. Broncos
Note: Dallas Goedert was limited in Thursday's practice as he deals with a lingering knee injury, but fully participated on Friday. He is cleared to play in Week 5.
The Broncos linebackers unit has been a liability in coverage so far this season.
LB Alex Singleton ranks 86th out of 132 qualifying LBs in coverage grade, per PFF, and is allowing a passer rating of 106.8 with 5 missed tackles (109th). His teammate Justin Strnad has been even worse, giving up a 118+ passer rating when targeted.
This opens the door for Eagles TE Dallas Goedert to continue his impact despite battling injuries. Goedert leads all tight ends in receiving TDs (3) and sits inside the top 25 in receptions, yards, and yards per catch.
Goedert has more than 32.5 yards in four of his last five games including last year's playoffs, averaging 45.2 yards in those games. He also has an absurd 142.8 passer rating when targeted, providing a security blanket for QB Jalen Hurts when the Broncos' top-10 ranked pass rush gets to him.
Week 5 PrizePicks Pick: Dallas Goedert – 33.5 Receiving Yards
Lions TE Sam LaPorta vs. Bengals
The Bengals linebackers corps has also been vulnerable against tight ends in 2025, giving up 61 yards per game to opposing tight ends this year.
Demetrius Knight is allowing a 116 passer rating when targeted, while Logan Wilson ranks just 44th out of 66 linebackers in coverage.
The last two tight ends to face this unit — T.J. Hockenson (49 yards) and Evan Engram (29 yards) — both exceeded their projections.
Lions TE Sam LaPorta has started 2025 in disappointing fashion, but he's set up for a bounce back here. He's caught at least 3 passes in every game this season, and has surpassed this yardage projection in 8 of his last 10 game, averaging 56.3 yards per contest.
Week 5 PrizePicks Pick: Sam LaPorta – 37.5 Receiving Yards
Make Week 5 Predictions on PrizePicks, Win Cash
Week 5 has no shortage of storylines — backup QBs, breakout spots, and defenses to target across the board. Whether you're chasing value or taking advantage of injuries, this Week 5 slate is loaded with opportunities to cash in on your NFL predictions.
Use this NFL Cheat Sheet and predictions to sharpen your takes and build out your winning Lineups for Sunday's Week 5 slate on PrizePicks and NFL DFS.
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Keep it dialed in on the Playbook for more PrizePicks picks and predictions for NFL DFS and fantasy football all season long.
