The excitement of Wild Card Weekend is far from over, even with one day in the books. The Sunday NFL playoff slate features a trio of intriguing matchups, including a pair of AFC bouts with an NFC clash sandwiched between.
Kicking things off are reigning MVP QB Josh Allen and the Bills, hitting the road to face the red-hot Jaguars. At 4:30 p.m., the resilient 49ers are in Philadelphia to face the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. Ending the night is a Chargers vs. Patriots meeting of two thrilling QBs.
Below, we’ll dive into Sunday Wild Card game predictions and picks to consider. With PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks, you can make predictions on player projections or game winners, spreads, totals, and futures to earn real money if you’re right.
All over/under, spread, and game winner payouts are via PrizePicks Team Picks. Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
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#6 Buffalo Bills vs. #3 Jacksonville Jaguars – 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5
Over/Under: 51.5
Game Winner Payout: Bills 1.96x | Jaguars 1.78x
The Bills came out of the gate on fire, winning their first four games before enduring a 3-4 stretch. After winning five of their last six, though, they look formidable with Allen leading the way.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, suffered a heartbreaking 36-29 defeat to the division rival Texans in Week 10. Since then, all they’ve done is go 8-0 and capture the AFC’s No. 3 seed. Under first-year head coach Liam Coen, the Jags are playing as well as any club.
Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction on Spread
- Since the start of last season, the Bills own the NFL’s third-best against-the-spread record as an underdog (5-3).
- Buffalo has football’s highest win percentage (68.3) in conference games dating back to 2023.
- The Bills rank first in time per drive on both sides, serving as a well-oiled machine particularly on offense, where they’re also second in points per drive.
- Jacksonville’s offense is just 20th in yards per drive, which could stem from a league-leading average starting field position (own 32.8).
- Sunday sees teams with contrasting rush offenses battle. Per Jefe’s Handiwork, the Bills are second in rushing success rate (46.6%) and the Jags are 24th (39.3%).
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Jaguars Projection: 273.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- Eliminating his one-snap showing in Week 18, Allen netted 265.5 combined passing and rushing yards per game in the regular season.
- Last year’s NFL MVP averages 351 total yards across four road playoff outings.
- Allen racked up more total EPA (104.43) than all but three QBs in the regular season. No one had more rush EPA than him at 38.77.
- The Jaguars rank 18th in fantasy points given up to QBs, including 283 rushing yards and 5 TDs on just 61 attempts.
- Opponents throw on Jacksonville more than any other NFL team.
#6 San Francisco 49ers vs. #3 Philadelphia Eagles – 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Game Winner Payout: 49ers 2.94x | Eagles 1.36x
As has been the case countless times before, the theme of the 49ers’ season was injury and subsequent response. Despite having numerous players coming in and out of the lineup, they had a chance to earn the NFC’s top overall seed in Week 18.
After failing to capture that first-round bye, San Francisco faces a puzzling Eagles squad. Philadelphia went 11-6 during the regular season, struggling on offense but developing into a dominant defense.
49ers vs. Eagles Prediction on Spread
- Dating back to 2023, the 49ers have the NFL’s worst ATS record as a road underdog (1-5).
- Philadelphia rarely gets in its own way, tossing the fewest INTs (7) and ranking fourth in giveaways overall.
- According to Sharp Football Analysis, after star LB Fred Warner got hurt in Week 6, the 49ers allowed a TD on 26.9% of their possessions. No playoff team had a higher rate in that stretch.
- Philly sits 11th in explosive play rate, fueled by football’s highest average depth of target (9.66 yards).
- San Francisco may slot in at sixth in EPA per throw (0.16), but Philadelphia’s fifth-ranked pass defense has limited many opponents.
- Just 30.56% of the 49ers’ yards come from rushes, which is 29th. The Eagles’ defense is a respectable 15th in EPA per rush yielded (-0.04).
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. 49ers Projection: 81.5 Rush Yards
- Saquon Barkley averaged 71.3 rushing yards per game in 16 regular-season contests. Since Week 8, however, that number was 85.7. From Weeks 14-17, it was 100.0.
- San Fran’s run defense is a middle-of-the-pack 19th in rushing yards and T-13th in TDs given up to RBs.
- The 49ers sat 20th in EPA/rush allowed on defense during the regular season at -0.01, per SumerSports.
- Via RBSDM, the 49ers cede the second-highest rush success rate (46.4%).
- Just six teams allow a greater percentage of rushes to go for first downs than San Francisco (27.43%).
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#7 Los Angeles Chargers vs. #2 New England Patriots – 8:00 p.m. ET on NBC
Spread: New England Patriots -3.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Game Winner Payout: Chargers 2.56x | Patriots 1.49x
Even with significant injuries at RB and both OT spots, the Chargers rallied behind QB Justin Herbert to go 11-6. With that said, they come into the Wild Card Round having lost consecutive contests — and to playoff teams (20-16 to the Texans, 19-3 to the Broncos).
The Patriots and MVP candidate QB Drake Maye experienced a bonkers year-over-year turnaround, going from 4-13 to 14-3. A 32nd-ranked strength of schedule sparked plenty doubters, but this is a solid team on both sides of the ball.
Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction on Spread
- The Patriots are 4-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since Maye entered the league in 2024. That 66.7% cover rate is tied for fifth-best.
- New England placed in the top five in scoring on both sides of the ball in the regular season.
- With Maye driving them, the Pats are the NFL’s sixth-best offense on third downs and the second-best on fourth downs. Los Angeles’ defense yields the ninth-ranked late down success rate.
- L.A. is 27th in points per drive, success rate, and yards per play on offense since Week 10.
- The Chargers are dead last in ESPN’s pass block win rate. They’re just a single spot higher in run block win rate.
Chargers WR Keenan Allen vs. Patriots Projection: 33.5 Rec Yards
- In his last seven games, Keenan Allen averaged 34.0 yards on 6 targets per outing.
- Per SumerSports, Allen’s 81.18 total EPA accumulated ranks 21st among all WRs.
- Despite being in year No. 13, Allen has a 22.43% target share that leads all Chargers wideouts.
- According to NFL Pro, 33.6% of L.A.’s third-down targets have gone to Allen, good for the second-highest share leaguewide.
- The Patriots’ defense ranks 19th in fantasy points yielded to WRs and sits tied for seventh-most with 17 TDs afforded to the position.
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