Thanksgiving football is here — it's a tradition unlike any other, with a three-game spread on tap. Just like we do every week of the NFL season, below, we'll break down our NFL on Thanksgiving predictions in the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet.
From Joe Burrow returning vs. the Ravens to how the Cowboys may have an edge on the visiting Chiefs, this Thanksgiving NFL Cheat Sheet is your ultimate resource for the three Thanksgiving games on tap — including the top PrizePicks picks, matchups to target, and player insights for the Thanksgiving slate.
Want to be the sharp cousin at Thanksgiving dinner? Dive into these Thanksgiving NFL predictions for Thursday's games, and you'll be set.
Want real money action on the Thanksgiving games? Just go to the PrizePicks NFL game, pick your players, and predict if they'll put up More or Less than their projected stats to win money if you're right on the 2025 NFL Thanksgiving games.
NFL on Thanksgiving Predictions, Cheat Sheet, & Best Matchups
Find the top NFL Thanksgiving games predictions, picks, matchups to target, and player picks for PrizePicks below in the Cheat Sheet, including player picks for NFL DFS.
- Best QB Matchup for NFL Thanksgiving Games
- Best RB Predictions for NFL Thanksgiving Games
- Best WR vs. CB Matchups to Target for NFL Thanksgiving Games
- Best OL vs. DL Mismatches for NFL Thanksgiving Games
Best QB Matchups for NFL Thanksgiving Games
Here is the top QB pick to target on PrizePicks for the NFL on Thanksgiving.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow vs. Ravens
The long-awaited return of Bengals star QB Joe Burrow has finally arrived. Burrow hasn’t taken a snap since Week 2 after suffering a turf toe injury, but his 2024 campaign reminded everyone exactly why he’s one of the league’s elite.
Last season, Burrow was historic under center, finishing 1st in the NFL in passing TDs (43), 1st in passing yards (4,918), and throwing only 9 interceptions despite carrying the Bengals offense. Even as a traditional pocket passer, he added surprising efficiency on the ground, ranking top 10 in scramble yards with over 200 rushing yards, consistently extending plays when protection broke down.
Baltimore’s defense presents a far less intimidating challenge than in previous seasons. The Ravens' defense ranks 19th in expected points added (EPA) per play and 19th in EPA per dropback — a massive regression from their 2024 dominance, especially late in the season.
Injuries have played a role; Kyle Hamilton, one of the best safeties in football, remains questionable, but is expected to play vs. the Bengals. His replacements have been liabilities. Former Charger S Alohi Gilman has struggled badly over the top, allowing a 121 passer rating and 17.6 yards per reception, while rookie S Malaki Starks has been equally vulnerable, surrendering nearly a 100 passer rating and 14.7 yards per catch.
With Burrow returning against a Ravens secondary that he has torched for 410 yards per game in their last two games, this matchup sets up as the ideal re-entry point for Cincinnati’s star QB.
NFL Thanksgiving Prediction: Joe Burrow – 255.5 Passing Yards
Best RB Predictions for Thanksgiving Games
Here are the top RB matchups and picks to target on PrizePicks for the NFL on Thanksgiving.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Bengals
Since Week 5, the Cincinnati Bengals have collapsed against the run. They’re allowing 167.6 rushing yards per game, the second-most in the NFL, and giving up 5.36 yards per carry, also the second-worst mark.
Their interior has been a major liability, DT T.J. Slaton ranks 114th of 125 interior defenders in run-stopping, per PFF. The lack of a strong front-four is why the Bengals are 29th in EPA per rush, per Sumer Sports.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry struggled last week against the Jets, finishing with just 64 rushing yards, but almost all of those yards came after contact (see above) — he's still 11th in yards after contact among RBs, per PFF.
King's season profile still puts him firmly inside elite territory: 871 rushing yards (sixth), 9 rushing TDs (fourth), and 4.7 yards per carry (12th). Best of all, Henry's floor is as safe as it gets, as he's fourth in the NFL in carries this year.
With the Bengals unable to set an edge or plug the A-gaps, Henry walks into a perfect rebound spot against a defense consistently allowing chunk gains and yards after contact.
NFL Thanksgiving Prediction: Derrick Henry – 92.5 Rush Yards
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco vs. Cowboys
Since Week 5, the Dallas Cowboys have quietly become a run defense you can target. They’re giving up 126.3 rushing yards per game and ranking seventh worst in yards after contact allowed per attempt (2.3).
SLB Kenneth Murray has been a major liability, ranking 89th of 89 qualifying LBs in run defense grade, via PFF. Even newcomer DT Kenny Clark, typically elite versus the run, has unexpectedly cratered, ranking 85th of 125 interior defenders against the run, per PFF.
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco returns this week fully rested after missing the previous game, and the backfield is firmly his with Kareem Hunt’s inconsistency, especially after losing a fumble vs. the Colts last week.
In the three weeks before his Week 9 injury, Pacheco out-snapped Hunt by a total of 134 to 56 — a clear tilt toward the 26-year-old Rutgers product.
Pacheco has just 329 rushing yards this year due to missed time, but he still ranks 29th in yards per carry (4.2) and owns a strong 2.74 yards-after-contact average. Behind Creed Humphrey — the No. 1 run-blocking center in the NFL, per PFF — Pacheco steps into a position to reclaim his role with the Cowboys leaking yards on the ground.
NFL Thanksgiving Prediction: Isaiah Pacheco – 28.5 Rush Yards
Best WR vs. CB Matchups to Target for NFL Thanksgiving Games
Here are the top WR vs. CB matchups to target on PrizePicks for the NFL on Thanksgiving.
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey
Ja'Marr Chase finally gets his QB back this week. And it couldn't have come at a better time.
With Tee Higgins ruled out, the Bengals’ passing volume funnels directly to Chase, and the numbers back it up. Chase has been quarterback-proof this season; despite playing with multiple backups, he still ranks first in the NFL in targets (115), third in receptions (79), and fifth in receiving yards (861).
His 30% target share is fifth in the NFL, per FTN, and that's with Higgins (6.4 targets per game) on the field. Every time Cincinnati throws, the ball seems to go his way.
Chase draws a dream matchup against veteran CB Marlon Humphrey Jr., who has completely fallen off this year. Humphrey ranks 111th out of 113 corners in coverage, per PFF. The Ravens CB getting beaten at every level, allowing a 107.8 passer rating and 14.1 yards per reception.
Chase has volume on his side, and — on paper — a massive talent advantage, in a spot where Cincinnati has no choice but to lean on him heavily to keep their season alive.
NFL Thanksgiving Prediction: Ja’Marr Chase – 91.5 Receiving Yards
Packers WR Romeo Doubs vs. Lions CB Terrion Arnold
Detroit’s defense just got carved up by Giants backup QB Jameis Winston for 34 points. Now they face a more aggressive downfield thrower in QB Jordan Love, who ranks eighth in the NFL in big-time throws, per PFF.
With RB Josh Jacobs not 100 percent, TE Tucker Kraft out (20.6% target share through Week 8), the Packers’ passing tree tightens. Now, Romeo Doubs becomes the most reliable piece for Love; he leads the team with 23 targets since Kraft went down.
Doubs has put up 522 receiving yards, 4 TDs, and 65 targets on the season, with a 56.5% weighted opportunity rating, per FTN — almost 30% higher than the next Packers' pass catcher. When targeted, he gives Jordan Love a 102.2 passer rating and averages 12.7 yards per reception, winning consistently on intermediate routes.
He’ll be lined up against second-year CB Terrion Arnold, who has struggled mightily in coverage. Arnold ranks 82nd of 113 corners in coverage, via PFF, and is getting exposed vertically, allowing 15.3 yards per reception. With Detroit’s secondary leaking explosives and Green Bay thin on healthy weapons, Doubs steps into a prime WR1-volume matchup.
NFL Thanksgiving Prediction: Romeo Doubs – 49.5 Receiving Yards
Best OL/DL Matchups to Target for NFL Thanksgiving Games
Here are the top OLvs.DL mismatches that could impact your to PrizePicks NFL Picks on Thanksgiving. Predictions below are from the PrizePicks NFL board – pick More or Less on player stats and win cash if you're right!
Cowboys DL vs. Chiefs OL
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has quietly turned into one of the most disruptive pass rush units in the league, despite trading away elite pass-rusher Micah Parsons before Week 1.
DT Kenny Clark has been a wrecking ball on the interior, ranking top-15 among IDLs in sacks (4) and top-15 in total pressures (31). Alongside him, DT Quinnen Williams has been everything Dallas hoped for 34 pressures (11th among all DL) and top-25 in sacks, consistently collapsing pockets.
Veteran DE Jadeveon Clowney has revived his career in limited work, generating 22 pressures and 2 sacks on just 135 pass-rush snaps, while second-round rookie DE Donovan Ezeiruaku continues to surge with 23 pressures and 2 sacks already, with playing time increasing. This front four brings pressure from every angle and has bodies to rotate in.
Kansas City’s offensive line is not built to withstand that. OT Trey Smith is doubtful, which forces rookie LT Josh Simmons into a full load; he’s already allowed 18 pressures, 2 sacks, and 5 penalties this season.
Chiefs RT Jawaan Taylor remains one of the worst run-blocking tackles in the league and has also surrendered 18 pressures with a staggering 13 penalties, a massive trench mismatch favoring Dallas.
NFL Thanksgiving Prediction: Patrick Mahomes – 20.5 Rush Yards
Ravens DL vs. Bengals OL
Cincinnati’s offensive line remains a liability. RT Amarius Mims has been overwhelmed, giving up 27 pressures and 4 penalties. LT Orlando Brown Jr. has been even worse with 33 pressures and 7 sacks allowed, getting beaten consistently by speed and power. Veteran C Ted Karras has also regressed, surrendering 15 pressures and drawing 6 penalties up the middle.
Baltimore is perfectly built to exploit that weakness. The Ravens recently added DE Dre’Mont Jones via trade with the Titans, who — despite limited snaps — has produced 30 pressures and 7 sacks, providing elite interior disruption. LB Kyle Van Noy has generated 19 pressures and 2 sacks on only 205 rush attempts, and veteran DT John Jenkins, who ranks 25th out of 128 interior linemen per PFF, anchors the run defense and pushes the pocket.
This is a brutal mismatch for Cincinnati's fledgling offensive line, as Baltimore brings three legitimate pass-rushers.
NFL Thanksgiving Prediction: Chase Brown – 3 Receptions
Make NFL Thanksgiving Predictions on PrizePicks
Thanksgiving games are here, Turkey Day brings us another opportunity to win real money with your NFL Predictions in Thursday's games.
Use this this NFL Cheat Sheet and predictions to sharpen your takes and build out your winning Lineup for Thanksgiving.
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